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First Commonwealth Financial (FCF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of First Commonwealth Financial stock $15.49, price $20.91, that is 25.9% below the price, quality 55 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

6 models, one by oneBear $13.91 to bull $19.13 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 55/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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Financial Services US

Broad data Nov 5, 2026

First Commonwealth Financial

FCF · US

Solid, but expensive

Our calculation puts a fair price 26% below what the stock costs today.

Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +13.0 %/yr in USD)

Highly profitable · 33.6% net margin (TTM)

2.7% dividend yield · Low payout

Upbeat coverage

Broad data

Quality 55/100

Mixed vs. peers (6/15)

Moderate moat 57/100 · thin data

Insiders sold $2.0M (6M)

Fair value $15.49 · Overvalued (−25.9%)

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $10.29 – $21.81 · fair‑value band $13.91 – $19.13 · the $20.91 price screens above the $15.49 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.

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Company profile

First Commonwealth Financial Corporation, a financial holding company, provides various consumer and commercial banking products and services in the United States.

Show moreShow less

The company's consumer services include internet, mobile, and telephone banking; an automated teller machine network; personal checking accounts, interest-earning checking accounts, savings and health savings accounts, insured money market accounts, debit cards, investment certificates, fixed and variable rate certificates of deposit, mortgage loans, secured and unsecured installment loans, construction and real estate loans, safe deposit facilities, credit cards, credit lines with overdraft checking protection, and IRA accounts.

The company also provides commercial banking services comprising commercial lending and leasing, business checking accounts, online account management services, payroll direct deposits, commercial cash management services, and repurchase agreements, as well as ACH origination services.

In addition, the company offers various trust and asset management services; auto, home, and business insurance, as well as term life insurance products; and annuities, mutual funds, and stock and bond brokerage services through a broker-dealer and insurance brokers.

Further, it provides commercial real estate, residential real estate, real estate construction loans, and loans to individuals, as well as commercial, financial, agricultural, and other loans. The company was founded in 1934 and is headquartered in Indiana, Pennsylvania.

Stock analysis

First Commonwealth Financial (FCF) currently trades at $20.91, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.49, 26% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $18.55 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $20.91 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $7.98, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $13.91 (bear) to $19.13 (bull), the price of $20.91 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

First Commonwealth Financial reported revenue of $729M in FY2025 versus $401M in FY2021, a compound +16.2%/yr. Reported net income was $152M in FY2025, compounding +2.4%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $2.1B Mid · P/E ratio 12.4 · P/S ratio 4.21 · EPS (TTM) $1.69 · Dividend yield 2.7% · Net margin 33.6% · Return on equity 11.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.7% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 57 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −26%, FCF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $13.91 Fair Value $15.49 Bull $19.13

Price $20.91 · Downside -25.9%

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.9702 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Best data coverage

Residual Income $14.07 $15.49 $19.13 76

Gordon GGM $5.20 $10.69 $16.74 66

DDM Multi-Stage $5.20 $8.03 $11.02 66

All 6 models by family

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM $5.20 $10.69 $16.74 66

DDM Multi-Stage $5.20 $8.03 $11.02 66

Multiples

P/E Multiple $15.32 $20.43 $25.53 63

P/B Multiple $12.50 $16.67 $20.84 55

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) $5.95 $7.98 $11.91 54

Economic Profit

Residual Income $14.07 $15.49 $19.13 76

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 55/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 32

How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital

Quality Growth 56

Are margins and returns getting better?

Cashflow 81

Do the profits arrive as real cash?

Financial strength 3

Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble

Investment 63

Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?

Low Volatility 86

How calm the share price moves, does not count

Price momentum 57

Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count

Near the 52-week high 80

Distance to the 52-week high, does not count

New shares 90

Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, 4 officers or directors sold shares worth $2.0M and none bought.

SaleJames R ReskeEVP/Chief Financial Officer12× since Dec 5, 2025: 24,935 shares, avg. $19.29$481,014Nov 5, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleLee E Lyon IIEVP / Chief Audit Executive2× since May 18, 2026: 60,000 shares, avg. $19.68$1.2MAug 10, 2026
SaleJane GrebencDirector3× since Feb 5, 2026: 41,000 shares, avg. $19.88$814,977Aug 6, 2026
SaleMichael P McCuenEVP/Chief Banking Officer10,500 shares at $18.85$197,925Jun 4, 2026
BuyTodd D BriceDirector2× since Feb 3, 2026: 2,000 shares, avg. $18.41$36,810May 4, 2026
SaleNorman J MontgomeryEVP/Business Integration37,964 shares at $18.35$696,770May 1, 2026
BuyMichael P McCuenEVP/Chief Banking Officer3,090 shares at $16.19$50,027Nov 21, 2025

Plus 3 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 93/100

Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Revenue growth 1 year

+4.3%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+19.4%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+13.0%

Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.6% a year

Revenue growth 33 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+5.1%

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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.

+9.3%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year+6.6%

Dividend (yield on the price)2.7%

Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.6.6% vs 10.1%, slowing

Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.23% → 27%

Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

FCF screens overvalued: fair value 26% below the price. Compare with China Merchants Bank Co →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (91 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Hype

Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.

The top 5 analyst questions from First Commonwealth Financial’s Q3 earnings call Yahoo Finance · Nov 3, 2026
What First Commonwealth Financial Stock's Earnings Update Means For Shareholders Yahoo Finance · Nov 1, 2026
First Commonwealth Financial (FCF), What Is Behind The Fresh Attention? Yahoo Finance · Nov 1, 2026
First Commonwealth Financial (FCF) Stock May Be 44% Undervalued As Margin Expansion Draws Focus Yahoo Finance · Nov 1, 2026

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 998 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures

A mixed picture versus its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 55 · Above median

Fair Value upside −25.9% · Below median

Profitability

Return on equity (12 months) 11.4% · Above median

Return on assets 1.2% · Above median

Net margin (12 months) 33.6% · Above median

Operating margin (12 months) 0.0% · Bottom 25%

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 2.7% · Below median

Dividend yield (12 months) 2.7% · Above median

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 0.17× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 12.4× · Pricier than median

P/B 1.37× · Pricier than median

P/S (12 months) 4.21× · Pricier than median

Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 12.4× · Pricier than median

EV/EBITDA 11.2× · Pricier than median

PEG 1.46× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 8

FUTURE (revenue growth)14 · sector 47

PAST (return on equity)45 · sector 43

HEALTH (low debt)–

DIVIDEND (yield)53 · sector 53

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value	Compare
Postal Savings Bank of China Co 601658	¥5.53	¥7.59	+37%	vs FCF
China Merchants Bank Co 600036	¥42.88	¥52.73	+23%	vs FCF
BNP Paribas SA BNP	€91.93	€106.01	+15%	vs FCF
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP	€6.18	€4.49	−27%	vs FCF
State Bank of India SBIN	₹1,019	₹736.65	−28%	vs FCF
UniCredit S.p.A UCG	€76.80	€50.44	−34%	vs FCF
Mizuho Financial Group MFG	$9.40	$5.90	−37%	vs FCF
DBS Group D05	69.72 SGD	40.39 SGD	−42%	vs FCF
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK	₹788.25	₹406.39	−48%	vs FCF
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK	₹1,571	₹615.63	−61%	vs FCF

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "First Commonwealth Financial Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FCF

Frequently asked questions

Is First Commonwealth Financial (FCF) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $15.49 versus a price of $20.91, about 26% lower (overvalued).

What is the fair value of FCF?

Our model-based fair value for First Commonwealth Financial is $15.49 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $20.91.

What is the quality score of FCF?

First Commonwealth Financial has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for First Commonwealth Financial (FCF)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of $15.49 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $13.91, optimistic scenario $19.13. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the First Commonwealth Financial stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at $15.49, about 26% lower versus a price of $20.91 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $13.91, optimistic scenario $19.13. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of First Commonwealth Financial (FCF)?

First Commonwealth Financial reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $507M (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).

Does First Commonwealth Financial pay a dividend?

First Commonwealth Financial currently shows a dividend yield of 2.65% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).

How much is the dividend of First Commonwealth Financial (FCF) and when is the ex-dividend date?

First Commonwealth Financial pays a dividend of $0.555 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.7%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 7, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1992. The payout ratio is 32.8% of earnings. Our assessment: Low payout. A low payout ratio: the dividend takes at most 60 % of earnings. Whether free cash flow covers it as well, we cannot see for this company.

What is the intrinsic value of First Commonwealth Financial (FCF)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For First Commonwealth Financial it is $15.49 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $20.91. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).

Is First Commonwealth Financial stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Nov 5, 2026, FCF trades above its calculated fair value: price $20.91, fair value $15.49, a gap of about −26% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of FCF?

No. The price is what the market pays today ($20.91); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($15.49). For First Commonwealth Financial the two are $5.42 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is First Commonwealth Financial worth?

The market values First Commonwealth Financial at about $2.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $20.91; our models calculate a fair value of $15.49 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FCF?

Our models span a range for First Commonwealth Financial: cautious scenario $13.91, base $15.49, optimistic $19.13 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $20.91). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of FCF?

First Commonwealth Financial trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.4 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $15.49 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 4 of the years ex one-offs: 11.7. Other multiples: PEG 1.5, P/B 1.4, P/S 4.2, EV/EBITDA 11.2.

What is the PEG ratio of FCF?

The PEG ratio of First Commonwealth Financial is 1.46 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.

How solid is the balance sheet of First Commonwealth Financial (FCF)?

Balance-sheet figures for First Commonwealth Financial (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 11.4%, debt of 0.17 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is FCF from its 52-week high?

First Commonwealth Financial trades at $20.91, about 4% below its 52-week high of $21.81 and 39% above the low of $15.08 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $15.49 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to First Commonwealth Financial?

From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is First Commonwealth Financial stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $20.91, calculated fair value $15.49 (−26%), Quality Score 55/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of FCF calculated?

We run First Commonwealth Financial through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $15.49 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. First Commonwealth Financial itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of First Commonwealth Financial (FCF)?

The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $20.91. Our model-based fair value is $15.49, about 26% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with First Commonwealth Financial right now?

The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($19.13). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Where does the earnings growth of First Commonwealth Financial (FCF) come from?

Earnings per share at First Commonwealth Financial grew +11.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.4 %, EBIT margin +0.4 %, tax rate +1.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of First Commonwealth Financial

How large is the market capitalisation of First Commonwealth Financial (FCF)?

The market capitalisation of First Commonwealth Financial is $2.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of First Commonwealth Financial (FCF)?

The price-to-sales ratio of First Commonwealth Financial is 4.21 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of First Commonwealth Financial (FCF)?

Earnings per share at First Commonwealth Financial are $1.69 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the dividend yield of First Commonwealth Financial (FCF)?

The dividend yield of First Commonwealth Financial is 2.7% (payout 32.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.

What is the net margin of First Commonwealth Financial (FCF)?

The net margin of First Commonwealth Financial is 33.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of First Commonwealth Financial (FCF)?

The return on equity (ROE) of First Commonwealth Financial is 11.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of First Commonwealth Financial (FCF)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of First Commonwealth Financial is 1.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

How fast is revenue growing at First Commonwealth Financial (FCF)?

Revenue at First Commonwealth Financial is growing +2.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +19.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at First Commonwealth Financial (FCF)?

Earnings per share at First Commonwealth Financial are growing +15.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much free cash flow does First Commonwealth Financial (FCF) generate?

The free cash flow of First Commonwealth Financial is $171M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.

How much net debt does First Commonwealth Financial (FCF) carry?

The net debt of First Commonwealth Financial is $349M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.

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