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Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Firefly Aerospace Inc. stock $16.16, price $23.70, that is 31.8% below the price, quality 33 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

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Industrials US

FA Firefly Aerospace Inc. logo Thin data Nov 10, 2026

Firefly Aerospace Inc.

FLY · US
Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 32% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Expensive Growth (revenue YoY +163.0 %/yr in USD)
Neutral coverage
Insiders sold $169,877 (6M)
Fair value $16.16 · Overvalued
Quality 33/100
Loss-making · -129.1% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (2/11)
Narrow moat 8/100 · thin data
Thin data
Estimate
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26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$60.35 $15.18 Fair Value $16.16 Aug 2025 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.

How to read this chart

15‑month range $15.18 – $60.35 · fair‑value band $12.12 – $20.20 · the $23.70 price screens above the $16.16 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 10, 2026.

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Company profile

Firefly Aerospace Inc. operates as a space and defense technology company and provides mission solutions for national security, government, and commercial customers in United States.

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The company offers integrated launch and space services technology that is committed to enabling launch, transit, and operations in space. It also provides Launch solutions, such as Alpha, a responsive launch services; and Eclipse, a medium-lift launch vehicles.

In addition, the company offers spacecraft solutions platforms, including Blue Ghost, a lunar delivery and operation service; and Elytra, which provides space maneuverability and servicing.

Further, it provides software and sensor solutions; national security software and big data processing capabilities; and responsive space services, as well as Ocula, a lunar imaging service. Firefly Aerospace Inc. was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Leander, Texas.

Stock analysis

Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) currently trades at $23.70, while our estimate is $16.16, 32% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: $12.12 (bear) to $20.20 (bull), the price of $23.70 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Firefly Aerospace Inc. Common Stock reported revenue of $160M in FY2025 versus $55.2M in FY2023, a compound +70.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$298M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $3.8B Mid · P/S ratio 8.85 · EPS (TTM) $−0.2600 · Dividend yield 0.2% · Return on equity −58.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −35.3% (3-year average) · Operating margin −80.9% · Revenue (TTM) $287M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 8 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 60% below its 52-week high and 56% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at −32%, FLY screens richer than that median.

Fair Value

Bear $12.12 Fair Value $16.16 Bull $20.20
Price $23.70 · Downside -31.8%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 33/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 1
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 84
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 4
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 81
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 0
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 0
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 23
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 38
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 28
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $169,877 and none bought.

  • SaleGlow NS Holdings, LLC10% owner8,000,000 shares at $48.00$384.0MJun 1, 2026
  • SaleDavid Leigh WheelerGeneral Counsel2× since Apr 17, 2026: 7,531 shares, avg. $45.08$339,497May 18, 202610b5-1 plan

Plus 17 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 10, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 38/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: only 3 usable fiscal years, at least 4 required
not computed

FLY screens overvalued: fair value 32% below the price. Compare with General Electric Company →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 260 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 33 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −31.8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets −16.4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −129.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −80.9% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 656.9% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 0.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.24× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper

P/B 3.22× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 13.36× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 63
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 36
HEALTH (low debt)88 · sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)4 · sector 18

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Weapons Defense

Similar stocks

10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Honeywell Aerospace Inc HONA $166.47 $181.25 +9% vs FLY
TransDigm Group TDG $1,226 $1,317 +7% vs FLY
General Dynamics Corporation GD $367.44 $274.19 −25% vs FLY
Thales S.A HO €232.70 €170.99 −27% vs FLY
Lockheed Martin Corporation LMT $603.12 $439.21 −27% vs FLY
Northrop Grumman Corporation NOC $548.61 $382.98 −30% vs FLY
Airbus SE AIR €208.25 €112.14 −46% vs FLY
RTX Corporation RTX $200.27 $88.19 −56% vs FLY
General Electric Company GE $337.91 $92.26 −73% vs FLY
Howmet Aerospace Inc HWM $219.05 $52.65 −76% vs FLY

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Firefly Aerospace Inc. Common Stock: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Firefly Aerospace Inc. Common Stock Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FLY

Frequently asked questions

Is Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our estimate of fair value is $16.16 versus a price of $23.70, about 32% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FLY?
Our estimate for Firefly Aerospace Inc. is $16.16 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $23.70.
What is the quality score of FLY?
Firefly Aerospace Inc. has a Quality Score of 33/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of $16.16 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Cautious scenario $12.12, optimistic scenario $20.20. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the Firefly Aerospace Inc. Common Stock stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at $16.16, about 32% lower versus a price of $23.70 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $12.12, optimistic scenario $20.20. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY)?
Firefly Aerospace Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $287M (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
Does Firefly Aerospace Inc. Common Stock pay a dividend?
Firefly Aerospace Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of 0.20% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 10, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY)?
Firefly Aerospace Inc. has a dividend yield of 0.2%.
What is the intrinsic value of Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Firefly Aerospace Inc. it is $16.16 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of $23.70.
Is Firefly Aerospace Inc. Common Stock stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, FLY trades above its calculated fair value: price $23.70, fair value $16.16, a gap of about −32% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FLY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($23.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($16.16). For Firefly Aerospace Inc. the two are $7.54 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Firefly Aerospace Inc. Common Stock worth?
The market values Firefly Aerospace Inc. at about $3.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is $23.70; our models calculate a fair value of $16.16 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FLY?
Our models span a range for Firefly Aerospace Inc.: cautious scenario $12.12, base $16.16, optimistic $20.20 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price $23.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Firefly Aerospace Inc. (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity −58.0%, debt of 0.24 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 33/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FLY from its 52-week high?
Firefly Aerospace Inc. trades at $23.70, about 60% below its 52-week high of $58.81 and 56% above the low of $15.18 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $16.16 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Firefly Aerospace Inc. Common Stock?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Lockheed Martin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Firefly Aerospace Inc. Common Stock stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price $23.70, calculated fair value $16.16 (−32%), Quality Score 33/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. Firefly Aerospace Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was $23.70. Our estimate is $16.16, about 32% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Firefly Aerospace Inc. Common Stock right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($20.20). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (33/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Firefly Aerospace Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY)?
The market capitalisation of Firefly Aerospace Inc. is $3.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Firefly Aerospace Inc. is 8.85 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY)?
Earnings per share at Firefly Aerospace Inc. are $−0.2600. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY)?
The dividend yield of Firefly Aerospace Inc. is 0.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the return on equity of Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Firefly Aerospace Inc. is −58.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Firefly Aerospace Inc. is −35.3% (avg 3y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY)?
The operating margin of Firefly Aerospace Inc. is −80.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY)?
Revenue at Firefly Aerospace Inc. is growing +657% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) generate?
The free cash flow of Firefly Aerospace Inc. is −$238M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) hold?
Firefly Aerospace Inc. holds more cash than debt, $484M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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