Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A (GEPA3) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 29, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A stock BRL 33.16, price BRL 33.00, upside +0.5%, quality 49 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 12 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$10.95 – R$38.00 · fair‑value band R$25.48 – R$38.08 · the R$33.00 price screens below the R$33.16 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A. generates and sells electricity in Brazil. It operates eight hydroelectric power plants; and two small hydroelectric plants that have an installed capacity of 2,297.8 megawatts.
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The company was formerly known as Duke Energy International, Geração Paranapanema S.A. and changed its name in January 2017. The company was founded in 1999 and is based in São Paulo, Brazil. Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A. is a subsidiary of Rio Paranapanema Participações S.A.
Stock analysis
Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A (GEPA3) currently trades at R$33.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$33.16, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 0.5%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of R$47.81 per share, and 7 of the 12 models we run sit above the R$33.00 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at R$19.33, and 5 of the 12 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: R$25.48 (bear) to R$38.08 (bull), the price of R$33.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A reported revenue of R$1.3B in FY2025 versus R$1.3B in FY2021, a compound −1.7%/yr. Reported net income was R$251M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap R$3.1B (≈ $565M) Small · P/S ratio 2.33 · EPS (TTM) R$−0.2800 · Dividend yield 3.9% · Net margin 19.9% · Return on equity 14.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.6% (5-year average) · Operating margin 26.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 65 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at 0%, GEPA3 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearR$25.48Fair Value R$33.16BullR$38.08
Price R$33.00 · Upside +0.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.24/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.4% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in BRL ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−8.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−12.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−12.0% vs −1.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.93% → 31%
Compare Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Electric · 155 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Above median
Fair Value upside+0.5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)14.3% · Above median
Return on assets5.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)16.3% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)26.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)8.1% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.50× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper
P/B2.51× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GEPA3
Frequently asked questions
Is Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A (GEPA3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$33.16 versus the last price from Oct 29, 2026 of R$33.00, about +0% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of GEPA3?
Our model-based fair value for Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A is R$33.16 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Oct 29, 2026): R$33.00.
What is the quality score of GEPA3?
Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A (GEPA3)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$33.16 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$25.48, optimistic scenario R$38.08. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$33.16, about +0% upside versus the last price from Oct 29, 2026 of R$33.00 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario R$25.48, optimistic scenario R$38.08. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A (GEPA3)?
Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$1.4B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A pay a dividend?
Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A currently shows a dividend yield of 3.85% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A (GEPA3) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A pays a dividend of R$1.27 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.9%. The last ex-dividend date was May 4, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2009. The payout ratio is 15.9% of earnings. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A (GEPA3)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A it is R$33.16 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of R$33.00. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models in 5 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, GEPA3 trades below its calculated fair value: price R$33.00, fair value R$33.16, a gap of about +0% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GEPA3?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$33.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$33.16). For Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A the two are R$0.1600 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A worth?
The market values Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A at about R$3.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is R$33.00; our models calculate a fair value of R$33.16 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GEPA3?
Our models span a range for Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A: cautious scenario R$25.48, base R$33.16, optimistic R$38.08 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price R$33.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of GEPA3?
The PEG ratio of Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A is 6.02 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A (GEPA3)?
Balance-sheet figures for Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 14.3%, debt of 0.50 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GEPA3 from its 52-week high?
Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A trades at R$33.00, about 13% below its 52-week high of R$38.00 and 15% above the low of R$28.64 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$33.16 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value NextEra Energy, Inc, The Southern Company, Duke Energy Corporation, American Electric Power Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price R$33.00, calculated fair value R$33.16 (+0%), Quality Score 49/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GEPA3 calculated?
We run Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A through 12 models from 5 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of R$33.16 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A (GEPA3)?
The latest price we hold is from Oct 29, 2026 and stands at R$33.00. Our model-based fair value is R$33.16, about +0% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A (GEPA3) come from?
Earnings per share at Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A grew +2.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.2 %, EBIT margin −1.8 %, tax rate +0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A
How large is the market capitalisation of Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A (GEPA3)?
The market capitalisation of Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A is R$3.1B (≈ $565M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A (GEPA3)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A is 2.33 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A (GEPA3)?
Earnings per share at Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A are R$−0.2800. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A (GEPA3)?
The dividend yield of Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A is 3.9%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A (GEPA3)?
The net margin of Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A is 19.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A (GEPA3)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A is 14.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A (GEPA3)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A is 10.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A (GEPA3)?
The operating margin of Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A is 26.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A (GEPA3)?
Revenue at Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A is growing +8.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A (GEPA3)?
Earnings per share at Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A are growing −67.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A (GEPA3) generate?
The free cash flow of Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A is −R$520M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A (GEPA3) carry?
The net debt of Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A is R$1.2B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 5, 2026