Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A (GEPA3) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · BR · Market cap R$3.1B
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Share price +4.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 37% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid quality (49/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- Our model range runs from R$33.65 (bear) to R$59.77 (bull), base R$47.81. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 49/100 (below-average quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$9.65 – R$38.00 · fair‑value band R$33.65 – R$59.77 · the R$34.99 price screens below the R$47.81 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A (GEPA3) currently trades at R$34.99, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$47.81, implying the stock looks roughly 36.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A generated revenue of R$1.4B at a net margin of 19.8%. Revenue grew 27.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.6%. Net debt stands at R$1.2B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from R$33.65 (bear case) to R$59.77 (bull case); at R$34.99, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at 37%, GEPA3 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (R$44.87) versus Asset-Based (R$8.80). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 68
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A. generates and sells electricity in Brazil. It operates eight hydroelectric power plants; and two small hydroelectric plants that have an installed capacity of 2,297.8 megawatts. The company was formerly known as Duke Energy International, Geração Paranapanema S.A. and changed its name in January 2017.
Full company description
Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A. generates and sells electricity in Brazil. It operates eight hydroelectric power plants; and two small hydroelectric plants that have an installed capacity of 2,297.8 megawatts. The company was formerly known as Duke Energy International, Geração Paranapanema S.A. and changed its name in January 2017. The company was founded in 1999 and is based in São Paulo, Brazil. Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A. is a subsidiary of Rio Paranapanema Participações S.A.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A reported revenue of R$1.3B in FY2025 versus R$1.3B in FY2021, a compound −1.7%/yr. Reported net income was R$251M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Utilities - Regulated Electric · 154 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NextEra Energy, Inc NEE | $88.80 | $32.94 | -63% |
| The Southern Company SO | $95.61 | $61.06 | -36% |
| Duke Energy Corporation DUK | $126.11 | $97.11 | -23% |
| National Grid plc NGG | 61,175 ARS | 44,377 ARS | -27% |
| American Electric Power Company AEP | $132.50 | $79.33 | -40% |
| Dominion Energy, Inc D | $70.08 | $46.92 | -33% |
| NTPC Limited NTPC | ₹341.85 | ₹377.16 | +10% |
| CEZ, a. s. CEZ | 232.40 PLN | 159.33 PLN | -31% |
| Power Grid Corporation POWERGRID | ₹283.55 | ₹252.77 | -11% |
| China National Nuclear Power Co 601985 | ¥8.91 | ¥7.69 | -14% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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