Genesis Minerals Ltd (GMD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Genesis Minerals Ltd stock A$4.12, price A$7.49, that is 45.0% below the price, quality 68 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.7020 – A$8.62 · fair‑value band A$2.53 – A$7.63 · the A$7.49 price screens above the A$4.12 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Genesis Minerals Limited engages in the gold mining, project development and exploration activities in Western Australia. The company's Leonora Operations includes Admiral operations, Gwalia operations, Harbour Lights Project, Tower Hill project, and Ulysses operations.
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Its Laverton Operations include Bruno-Lewis project, Jupiter project, Laverton Gold project, Redcliffe project; and mining services. Genesis Minerals Limited was incorporated in 2007 and is based in Perth, Australia.
Stock analysis
Genesis Minerals Ltd (GMD) currently trades at A$7.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$4.12, 45% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$22.05 per share, and 16 of the 26 models we run sit above the A$7.49 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$1.17, and 10 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$2.53 (bear) to A$7.63 (bull), the price of A$7.49 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Genesis Minerals Ltd reported revenue of A$1.7B in FY2026 versus A$77.0M in FY2022, a compound +118.1%/yr. Reported net income was A$602M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap A$8.8B (≈ $6.0B) Mid · P/E ratio 14.1 · P/S ratio 5.03 · EPS (TTM) A$0.5300 · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin 34.5% · Return on equity 36.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −15.5% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 80 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 57% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −45%, GMD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$2.53Fair Value A$4.12BullA$7.63
Price A$7.49 · Downside -45.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.1736 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCFA$8.08A$11.78A$22.8875
EPVA$4.39A$4.97A$5.4674
Growth DCFA$7.59A$13.11A$21.7974
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCFA$8.08A$11.78A$22.8875
Owner EarningsA$7.35A$15.14A$29.7369
5Y Revenue ExitA$3.85A$5.48A$8.7969
5Y EBITDA ExitA$6.94A$11.72A$21.0670
5Y P/E ExitA$7.24A$15.27A$26.0966
10Y Revenue ExitA$5.23A$8.81A$10.3666
10Y EBITDA ExitA$7.36A$14.93A$27.7463
10Y P/E ExitA$7.56A$15.51A$28.3059
Earnings-Based
Graham-DoddA$3.48A$24.29A$34.0861
Lynch FVA$12.55A$17.92A$23.3059
PEG = 1.0A$12.55A$17.92A$23.3055
EPVA$4.39A$4.97A$5.4674
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGMA$3.78A$6.88A$9.5665
DDM Multi-StageA$3.78A$6.25A$7.3465
Multiples
P/E MultipleA$6.53A$8.71A$10.8863
P/S MultipleA$1.67A$2.22A$2.7858
P/B MultipleA$3.89A$5.19A$6.4955
EV/EBITA$7.17A$9.50A$11.8466
EV/EBITDAA$6.26A$8.30A$10.3367
EV/RevenueA$1.71A$2.38A$3.0554
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)A$0.8700A$1.17A$1.7554
Growth DCF
Growth DCFA$7.59A$13.11A$21.7974
Rev-Margin DCFA$4.17A$6.25A$10.6869
Economic Profit
Residual IncomeA$2.72A$3.25A$4.9673
ROIC CompounderA$5.58A$8.08A$11.0869
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/EA$15.44A$22.05A$28.6765
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical peak year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.92/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+89.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+182.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+637.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
≈ +91.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+90.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.7%
Per share before 2021divided by the spin-off factor 1.0193
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−20,542% → 45%
⚠ Approximate: the rate leans on 2026, which sits 281% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +1.2% a year for the price and +8.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (21 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: The business benefits from solid margins and cash conversion yet its limited moat and high pricing exposure in commodity gold mining remain the core constraint.
Main risk: Proposed changes to Australia's capital gains tax could reduce returns for retail investors in junior explorers, limiting new gold discoveries and threatening Genesis Minerals' long-term ability to replace ore reserves.
Bull case: By leveraging its scale from the Vault acquisition and strong cash flow, Genesis Minerals could fund its own exploration or acquire advanced projects, mitigating any slowdown in junior discoveries.
Bear case: If junior exploration funding dries up due to the tax changes, Genesis Minerals might struggle to sustain production levels long-term as reserves deplete without sufficient new discoveries in its districts.
Genesis is advancing its Vault Minerals acquisition with court approval secured and the scheme meeting set for November. Management has started a strategic review that could lead to sales or spin-offs of some assets in the enlarged portfolio. Will the combined scale and synergies strengthen the core business more than any divestments reshape it?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 205 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−45.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)36.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets20.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)34.5% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)47.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)58.6% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.13× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)14.1× · Pricier than median
P/B4.22× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)5.03× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)13.3× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA9.0× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 44
HEALTH (low debt)94· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)13· sector 24
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Genesis Minerals Ltd (GMD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$4.12 versus a price of A$7.49, about 45% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GMD?
Our model-based fair value for Genesis Minerals Ltd is A$4.12 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$7.49.
What is the quality score of GMD?
Genesis Minerals Ltd has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Genesis Minerals Ltd (GMD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$4.12 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$2.53, optimistic scenario A$7.63. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Genesis Minerals Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$4.12, about 45% lower versus a price of A$7.49 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$2.53, optimistic scenario A$7.63. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Genesis Minerals Ltd (GMD)?
Genesis Minerals Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$1.7B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Genesis Minerals Ltd pay a dividend?
Genesis Minerals Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 0.67% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Genesis Minerals Ltd (GMD) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Genesis Minerals Ltd pays a dividend of A$0.05 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.7%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 9, 2026. The payout ratio is 9.4% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 11.21 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Genesis Minerals Ltd (GMD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Genesis Minerals Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +4.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +637.3 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GMD use?
Our models discount Genesis Minerals Ltd at 10.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.55, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Genesis Minerals Ltd that is +4.2 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Genesis Minerals Ltd (GMD) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Genesis Minerals Ltd grew +637.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +4.2 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Genesis Minerals Ltd (GMD) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Genesis Minerals Ltd (+4.2 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Genesis Minerals Ltd (GMD)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.52 %: that much free cash flow Genesis Minerals Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Genesis Minerals Ltd (GMD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Genesis Minerals Ltd it is A$4.12 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of A$7.49. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Genesis Minerals Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, GMD trades above its calculated fair value: price A$7.49, fair value A$4.12, a gap of about −45% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GMD?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$7.49); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$4.12). For Genesis Minerals Ltd the two are A$3.37 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Genesis Minerals Ltd worth?
The market values Genesis Minerals Ltd at about A$8.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is A$7.49; our models calculate a fair value of A$4.12 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GMD?
Our models span a range for Genesis Minerals Ltd: cautious scenario A$2.53, base A$4.12, optimistic A$7.63 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price A$7.49). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GMD?
Genesis Minerals Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.1 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$4.12 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.2, P/S 5.0, EV/EBITDA 9.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Genesis Minerals Ltd (GMD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Genesis Minerals Ltd (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 36.1%, debt of 0.13 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GMD from its 52-week high?
Genesis Minerals Ltd trades at A$7.49, about 13% below its 52-week high of A$8.62 and 57% above the low of A$4.77 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$4.12 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Genesis Minerals Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Genesis Minerals Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price A$7.49, calculated fair value A$4.12 (−45%), Quality Score 68/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GMD calculated?
We run Genesis Minerals Ltd through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$4.12 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Genesis Minerals Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Genesis Minerals Ltd (GMD)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was A$7.49. Our model-based fair value is A$4.12, about 45% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Genesis Minerals Ltd right now?
The model range is unusually wide (A$2.53 to A$7.63). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Genesis Minerals Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Genesis Minerals Ltd (GMD)?
The market capitalisation of Genesis Minerals Ltd is A$8.8B (≈ $6.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Genesis Minerals Ltd (GMD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Genesis Minerals Ltd is 5.03 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Genesis Minerals Ltd (GMD)?
Earnings per share at Genesis Minerals Ltd are A$0.5300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Genesis Minerals Ltd (GMD)?
The dividend yield of Genesis Minerals Ltd is 0.7% (payout 9.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Genesis Minerals Ltd (GMD)?
The net margin of Genesis Minerals Ltd is 34.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Genesis Minerals Ltd (GMD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Genesis Minerals Ltd is 36.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Genesis Minerals Ltd (GMD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Genesis Minerals Ltd is −15.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Genesis Minerals Ltd (GMD)?
The operating margin of Genesis Minerals Ltd is 47.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Genesis Minerals Ltd (GMD)?
Revenue at Genesis Minerals Ltd is growing +58.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +183%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Genesis Minerals Ltd (GMD)?
Earnings per share at Genesis Minerals Ltd are growing +126% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Genesis Minerals Ltd (GMD) hold?
Genesis Minerals Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$185M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 7, 2026