Genesis Minerals Limited (GMD) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · AU · Market cap A$6.7B
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Share price +29.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 54% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 71/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$4.11). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.6475 – A$8.42 · fair‑value band A$2.47 – A$4.11 · the A$7.13 price screens above the A$3.29 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
Genesis Minerals Limited (GMD) currently trades at A$7.13, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$3.29, implying the stock looks roughly 53.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Genesis Minerals Limited generated revenue of A$1.4B at a net margin of 28.5%. Revenue grew 142.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 30.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of A$38.6M. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$2.47 (bear case) to A$4.11 (bull case); at A$7.13, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 101% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at -54%, GMD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (A$8.34) versus Asset-Based (A$0.7400). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 72 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Genesis Minerals Limited engages in the gold mining, project development and exploration activities in Western Australia. The company's Leonora Operations includes Admiral operations, Gwalia operations, Harbour Lights Project, Tower Hill project, and Ulysses operations.
Full company description
Genesis Minerals Limited engages in the gold mining, project development and exploration activities in Western Australia. The company's Leonora Operations includes Admiral operations, Gwalia operations, Harbour Lights Project, Tower Hill project, and Ulysses operations. Its Laverton Operations include Bruno-Lewis project, Jupiter project, Laverton Gold project, Redcliffe project; and mining services. Genesis Minerals Limited was incorporated in 2007 and is based in Perth, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Genesis Minerals Limited reported revenue of A$920M in FY2025 versus A$80.0K in FY2021, a compound +935.7%/yr. Reported net income was A$221M in FY2025.
GMD screens 54% overvalued. Compare with Newmont Corporation →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Genesis, Vault Create A$13 Billion Australian Gold Mining Giant
- Here's Why We Think Genesis Minerals (ASX:GMD) Might Deserve Your Attention Today
- Genesis Minerals Limited (ASX:GMD) is a favorite amongst institutional investors who own 65%
Peer Group
Gold · 259 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Gold median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newmont Corporation NEMCL | $112.00 | $132.73 | +19% |
| Zijin Mining Group 601899 | ¥28.36 | ¥30.58 | +8% |
| Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM | C$191.93 | C$154.33 | -20% |
| Barrick Mining Corporation B | $34.93 | $50.66 | +45% |
| Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM | C$152.57 | C$52.47 | -66% |
| Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV | C$284.75 | C$97.76 | -66% |
| AngloGold Ashanti plc AU | $76.35 | $88.63 | +16% |
| Gold Fields Limited GFI | $33.33 | $59.06 | +77% |
| Kinross Gold Corporation KGC | $22.57 | $34.62 | +53% |
| Northern Star Resources Limited NST | A$20.48 | A$15.98 | -22% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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