Grifal S.p.A (GRAL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Grifal S.p.A stock €0.23, price €0.51, that is 54.5% below the price, quality 27 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 2 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €0.4920 – €4.88 · fair‑value band €0.1700 – €0.3400 · the €0.5050 price screens above the €0.2300 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Grifal S.p.A. provides packaging solutions in Italy, rest of Europe, and internationally.
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The company offers corrugated cardboard packaging; cushion paper packaging, including cushion paper wrap, thermal, bottles, box, profiles, strips, and roll up products; and protective packaging solutions under the cArtù and Mondaplen brands.
Grifal S.p.A. was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Cologno Al Serio, Italy. Grifal S.p.A. is a subsidiary of G-Quattronove S.R.L.
Stock analysis
Grifal S.p.A (GRAL) currently trades at €0.5050, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €0.2300, 54% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the data coverage at low.
Scenario range: €0.1700 (bear) to €0.3400 (bull), the price of €0.5050 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 27/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Grifal S.p.A reported revenue of €36.5M in FY2025 versus €27.1M in FY2021, a compound +7.8%/yr. Reported net income was −€3.1M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap €5.7M Micro · P/S ratio 0.15 · EPS (TTM) €−0.2500 · Net margin −7.5% · Return on equity −17.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.4% (5-year average) · Operating margin 1.2% · Revenue (TTM) €37.5M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 9 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 61% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at −54%, GRAL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€0.1700Fair Value €0.2300Bull€0.3400
Price €0.5050 · Downside -54.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.38/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.9% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.9%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−4.6% (2020) → −4.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaging & Containers · 261 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score27 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−54.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−5.1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−7.5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)1.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)5.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.18× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.38× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months)0.15× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA30.0× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 23
FUTURE (revenue growth)25· sector 45
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)41· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 47
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Grifal S.p.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GRAL
Frequently asked questions
Is Grifal S.p.A (GRAL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €0.2300 versus a price of €0.5050, about 54% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GRAL?
Our model-based fair value for Grifal S.p.A is €0.2300 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €0.5050.
What is the quality score of GRAL?
Grifal S.p.A has a Quality Score of 27/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Grifal S.p.A (GRAL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €0.2300 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario €0.1700, optimistic scenario €0.3400. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Grifal S.p.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €0.2300, about 54% lower versus a price of €0.5050 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €0.1700, optimistic scenario €0.3400. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Grifal S.p.A (GRAL)?
Grifal S.p.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €37.5M (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Grifal S.p.A (GRAL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Grifal S.p.A it is €0.2300 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of €0.5050. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models in 2 families (Multiples, Asset-Based).
Is Grifal S.p.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, GRAL trades above its calculated fair value: price €0.5050, fair value €0.2300, a gap of about −54% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GRAL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€0.5050); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€0.2300). For Grifal S.p.A the two are €0.2750 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Grifal S.p.A worth?
The market values Grifal S.p.A at about €5.7M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is €0.5050; our models calculate a fair value of €0.2300 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GRAL?
Our models span a range for Grifal S.p.A: cautious scenario €0.1700, base €0.2300, optimistic €0.3400 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price €0.5050). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Grifal S.p.A (GRAL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Grifal S.p.A (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity −17.8%, debt of 1.18 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 27/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GRAL from its 52-week high?
Grifal S.p.A trades at €0.5050, about 61% below its 52-week high of €1.29 and 3% above the low of €0.4920 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €0.2300 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Grifal S.p.A?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Packaging Corporation, Amcor plc, International Paper Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Grifal S.p.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price €0.5050, calculated fair value €0.2300 (−54%), Quality Score 27/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GRAL calculated?
We run Grifal S.p.A through 2 models from 2 families: Multiples, Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €0.2300 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Grifal S.p.A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Grifal S.p.A (GRAL)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €0.5050. Our model-based fair value is €0.2300, about 54% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Grifal S.p.A right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€0.3400). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (27/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (€0.1700 to €0.3400) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Grifal S.p.A (GRAL) come from?
Earnings per share at Grifal S.p.A grew +13.8 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +13.7 %, EBIT margin +6.0 %, tax rate +0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −6.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Grifal S.p.A
How large is the market capitalisation of Grifal S.p.A (GRAL)?
The market capitalisation of Grifal S.p.A is €5.7M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Grifal S.p.A (GRAL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Grifal S.p.A is 0.15 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Grifal S.p.A (GRAL)?
Earnings per share at Grifal S.p.A are €−0.2500. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Grifal S.p.A (GRAL)?
The net margin of Grifal S.p.A is −7.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Grifal S.p.A (GRAL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Grifal S.p.A is −17.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Grifal S.p.A (GRAL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Grifal S.p.A is 1.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Grifal S.p.A (GRAL)?
The operating margin of Grifal S.p.A is 1.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Grifal S.p.A (GRAL)?
Revenue at Grifal S.p.A is growing +5.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Grifal S.p.A (GRAL)?
Earnings per share at Grifal S.p.A are growing −62.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Grifal S.p.A (GRAL) generate?
The free cash flow of Grifal S.p.A is −€3.0M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Grifal S.p.A (GRAL) carry?
The net debt of Grifal S.p.A is €27.6M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 7, 2026