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Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp (HCM) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp stock VND 9,729, price VND 23,550, that is 58.7% below the price, quality 21 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 2 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services VN · ISIN VN000000HCM0

HC Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp logo Thin data Nov 6, 2026

Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp

HCM · VN
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 59% below what the stock costs today.

Highly profitable · 36.9% net margin (TTM)
Expensive Growth (revenue YoY +12.4 %/yr in VND)
1.7% dividend yield · Watch coverage
Moderate moat 64/100 · thin data
Revenue last quarter 44% below a year ago.
Fair value 9,729 VND · Strongly overvalued (−58.7%)
Quality 21/100
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (3/11)
Thin data
⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

29,000 VND 6,653 VND Fair Value 9,729 VND Jul 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 6,653 VND – 29,000 VND · fair‑value band 7,297 VND – 12,162 VND · the 23,550 VND price screens above the 9,729 VND fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.

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Company profile

Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corporation provides securities brokerage services to individual, institutional, and corporate clients in Vietnam. It operates through Brokerage and Services, Proprietary Trading, Lending, and Consultancy segments.

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The company offers securities services, including opening trading accounts, advisory and account management, cash transactions, securities depository, shareholder book management, managed accounts, IPO auction agency, and corporate bond distribution; and financial services consisting of margin loans and lending, cash advances, government bond brokerage and auctions, and short-term funding for buying government bonds.

It also provides investment banking comprising corporate finance advisory and consultancy, such as financial restructuring and listing and initial public offering (IPO) advisory; merger and acquisition (M&A) advisory, including buy-side, sell-side, and strategic investment advisory services; and capital raising in domestic and international capital market services consisting of stocks and bonds issuance and divestment advisory.

In addition, the company offers research services, such as economics and strategy, sectors, companies, corporate access, and domestic and foreign and investment seminars; proprietary investment services, including fixed income, equities, futures, and covered warrants; and market-making services.

Further, it provides brokerage, proprietary securities trading, securities investment consultancy, securities underwriting, and securities custodian services; equity capital market services, including equitization, private placements, public tender offers, and block trades; and debt capital market services, such as certificates of deposit, convertible and straight bonds, guaranteed bonds, syndicated loans, and mezzanine financing.

Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corporation was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.

Stock analysis

Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp (HCM) currently trades at 23,550 VND, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 9,729 VND, 59% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: 7,297 VND (bear) to 12,162 VND (bull), the price of 23,550 VND sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 21/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp reported revenue of 1.3T VND in FY2025 versus 2.1T VND in FY2021, a compound −11.7%/yr. Reported net income was 1.2T VND in FY2025, compounding +0.7%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 25.4T VND (≈ $994M) Small · P/E ratio 18.1 · P/S ratio 7.95 · EPS (TTM) 1,303 VND · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin 36.9% · Return on equity 9.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.0% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 64 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 43% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −59%, HCM screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 7,297 VND Fair Value 9,729 VND Bull 12,162 VND
Price 23,550 VND · Downside -58.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (772.02 VND per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
P/B Multiple 8,585 VND 11,446 VND 14,308 VND 55
NCAV (Graham) 8,785 VND 13,311 VND 16,639 VND 52
All 2 models by family
Multiples
P/B Multiple 8,585 VND 11,446 VND 14,308 VND 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 8,785 VND 13,311 VND 16,639 VND 52

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 21/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 34
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 29
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 0
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 21
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 33
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 58
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 44
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 56
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 60/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in VND ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in VND: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−2.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.7%
Per share before 2026divided by the spin-off factor 1.1441
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → −72%

HCM screens overvalued: fair value 59% below the price. Compare with Morgan Stanley →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 384 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 21 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −58.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 9.4% · Below median
Return on assets 2.5% · Above median
Net margin (12 months) 36.9% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months) 61.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −43.6% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 1.7% · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 18.1× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.75× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 7.95× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 42
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 68
PAST (return on equity)38 · sector 38
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)34 · sector 47

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Morgan Stanley MS $181.44 $260.72 +44% vs HCM
The Charles Schwab Corporation SCHW $91.49 $117.60 +29% vs HCM
Guotai Haitong Securities Co 601211 ¥16.46 ¥18.02 +9% vs HCM
Nomura Holdings NMR $9.42 $10.20 +8% vs HCM
The Goldman Sachs Group GS $865.82 $766.86 −11% vs HCM
CITIC Securities Company 600030 ¥25.72 ¥20.42 −21% vs HCM
Robinhood Markets, Inc HOOD $80.91 $47.60 −41% vs HCM
Macquarie Group MQG A$248.86 A$123.84 −50% vs HCM
East Money Information Co 300059 ¥18.78 ¥6.72 −64% vs HCM
Interactive Brokers Group IBKR $75.82 $17.48 −77% vs HCM

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Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HCM

Frequently asked questions

Is Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp (HCM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 9,729 VND versus a price of 23,550 VND, about 59% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HCM?
Our model-based fair value for Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp is 9,729 VND (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 23,550 VND.
What is the quality score of HCM?
Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp has a Quality Score of 21/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp (HCM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 9,729 VND (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario 7,297 VND, optimistic scenario 12,162 VND. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 9,729 VND, about 59% lower versus a price of 23,550 VND (overvalued). Cautious scenario 7,297 VND, optimistic scenario 12,162 VND. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp (HCM)?
Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.2T VND (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp pay a dividend?
Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp currently shows a dividend yield of 1.70% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp (HCM) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp pays a dividend of 400.00 VND per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.7%. The last ex-dividend date was Jul 16, 2026. The payout ratio is 30.7% of earnings. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp (HCM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp it is 9,729 VND per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of 23,550 VND. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models in 2 families (Multiples, Asset-Based).
Is Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, HCM trades above its calculated fair value: price 23,550 VND, fair value 9,729 VND, a gap of about −59% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HCM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (23,550 VND); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (9,729 VND). For Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp the two are 13,821 VND per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp worth?
The market values Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp at about 25.4T VND (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is 23,550 VND; our models calculate a fair value of 9,729 VND per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HCM?
Our models span a range for Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp: cautious scenario 7,297 VND, base 9,729 VND, optimistic 12,162 VND per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price 23,550 VND). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HCM?
Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.1 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 9,729 VND is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.8, P/S 7.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp (HCM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 9.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 21/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HCM from its 52-week high?
Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp trades at 23,550 VND, about 19% below its 52-week high of 29,000 VND and 43% above the low of 16,412 VND (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 9,729 VND is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price 23,550 VND, calculated fair value 9,729 VND (−59%), Quality Score 21/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HCM calculated?
We run Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp through 2 models from 2 families: Multiples, Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 9,729 VND builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp (HCM)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was 23,550 VND. Our model-based fair value is 9,729 VND, about 59% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (12,162 VND). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (21/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp

How large is the market capitalisation of Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp (HCM)?
The market capitalisation of Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp is 25.4T VND (≈ $994M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp (HCM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp is 7.95 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp (HCM)?
Earnings per share at Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp are 1,303 VND (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp (HCM)?
The dividend yield of Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp is 1.7% (payout 30.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp (HCM)?
The net margin of Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp is 36.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp (HCM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp is 9.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp (HCM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp is −1.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp (HCM)?
The operating margin of Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp is 61.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp (HCM)?
Revenue at Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp is growing −43.6% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp (HCM)?
Earnings per share at Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp are growing −55.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp (HCM) generate?
The free cash flow of Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp is −11.7T VND (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp (HCM) carry?
The net debt of Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp is 27.5T VND (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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