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HDFC Bank Limited (HDFCBANK) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of HDFC Bank Limited stock ₹406, price ₹788, that is 48.4% below the price, quality 51 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services IN · ISIN INE040A01034

HB HDFC Bank Limited logo Broad data Nov 6, 2026

HDFC Bank Limited

HDFCBANK · NSE
Very expensive, in a downtrend

Our calculation puts a fair price 48% below what the stock costs today.

Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +51.7 %/yr in INR)
Highly profitable · 26.8% net margin (TTM)
1.6% dividend yield · Low payout
Wide moat 75/100
Broad data
Revenue last quarter +17% vs. a year ago.
Quality 51/100
Fair value ₹406.39 · Strongly overvalued (−48.4%)
Trails peers (5/15)

Risks from the AI analysis

🚩RBI rules could force stake cut in NBFC arm
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

₹996.51 ₹605.65 Fair Value ₹406.39 Jul 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ₹605.65 – ₹996.51 · fair‑value band ₹338.48 – ₹563.25 · the ₹788.25 price screens above the ₹406.39 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.

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Company profile

HDFC Bank Limited provides banking and financial products and services to individuals and businesses in India, Bahrain, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Dubai. The company operates through Treasury, Retail Banking, Wholesale Banking, Other Banking Business, Insurance Business, and Other segments.

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It offers savings, salary, current, rural, public provident fund, pension, and demat accounts; fixed and recurring deposits; and safe deposit lockers, as well as offshore accounts and deposits, and overdrafts against fixed deposits.

The company also provides personal, home, car, two-wheeler, business, doctor, educational, gold, consumer, and rural loans; loans against properties, securities, mutual funds, rental receivables, and assets; loans for professionals; government sponsored programs; and loans on credit card, as well as working capital and commercial/construction equipment finance, healthcare/medical equipment, commercial vehicle finance, dealer finance, and term loans.

In addition, it offers credit, debit, prepaid, forex, and kisan gold cards; payment and collection, export, import, remittance, bank guarantee, letter of credit, trade, hedging, and merchant and cash management services; and insurance and investment products.

Further, the company provides short term finance, bill discounting, structured finance, export credit, loan repayment, custodial, and documents collection services; online, mobile, and phone banking services; unified payment interface, immediate payment, national electronic funds transfer, and real time gross settlement services; channel financing, vendor financing, reimbursement account, money market, derivatives, employee trusts, cash surplus corporates, tax payment, and bankers to rights/public issue services; and financial solutions for supply chain partners and agricultural customers.

It operates branches and automated teller machines in various cities/towns. The company was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Mumbai, India.

Stock analysis

HDFC Bank Limited (HDFCBANK) currently trades at ₹788.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹406.39, 48% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ₹451.30 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the ₹788.25 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ₹125.19, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: ₹338.48 (bear) to ₹563.25 (bull), the price of ₹788.25 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

HDFC Bank Limited reported revenue of ₹5.0T in FY2026 versus ₹1.7T in FY2022, a compound +31.1%/yr. Reported net income was ₹760B in FY2026, compounding +18.8%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap ₹12.2T (≈ $129B) Large · P/E ratio 17.2 · P/S ratio 4.12 · EPS (TTM) ₹45.75 · Dividend yield 1.6% · Net margin 26.8% · Return on equity 13.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.3% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 75 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −48%, HDFCBANK screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ₹338.48 Fair Value ₹406.39 Bull ₹563.25
Price ₹788.25 · Downside -48.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹19.92 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income ₹345.83 ₹406.39 ₹563.25 76
Gordon GGM ₹109.66 ₹205.29 ₹292.38 67
DDM Multi-Stage ₹109.66 ₹183.71 ₹218.37 67
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ₹109.66 ₹205.29 ₹292.38 67
DDM Multi-Stage ₹109.66 ₹183.71 ₹218.37 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple ₹480.76 ₹641.01 ₹801.26 63
P/B Multiple ₹196.19 ₹261.58 ₹326.98 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ₹93.42 ₹125.19 ₹186.85 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income ₹345.83 ₹406.39 ₹563.25 76

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 31
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 67
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 100
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 21
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 33
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 91
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 33
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 23
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 37
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+18.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+34.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+51.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +29.5% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.6%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+2.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.0.7% vs 7.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.166% → 21%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)

HDFCBANK screens overvalued: fair value 48% below the price. Compare with China Merchants Bank Co →

Note from the team Oct 29, 2026
AI conclusion: Scale advantages in distribution and brand form the main strength of this large Indian bank, while limited differentiation in innovation and human capital signals remains its primary weakness.
Main risk: RBI draft rules on overlapping activities could require HDFC Bank to reduce ownership in HDB Financial Services, limiting control over similar lending products and raising the subsidiary's funding costs.
Bull case: The bank could divest its stake in a measured way or adjust product offerings to meet the rules while preserving synergies and expanding its core deposit and lending franchise through technology investments.
Bear case: Forced divestment might erode synergies with the NBFC, increase funding costs for overlapping activities and constrain the group's ability to offer integrated lending solutions across retail segments.
HDFC Bank delivered double-digit growth in advances and deposits in the latest quarter while asset quality held steady. Treasury gains dropped sharply though and net interest margins edged lower, weighing on the bottom line. The new CEO from outside the group views the merger integration as largely complete and points to further balance sheet work ahead. Can the bank turn its scale advantage into sustained margin recovery or will deposit competition keep returns under pressure?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 998 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 51 · Below median
Fair Value upside −48.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 13.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets 1.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months) 26.8% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) 33.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 16.6% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months) 1.6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.87× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 17.2× · Priciest 25%
P/B 2.07× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 4.12× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 7.4× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 13.3× · Pricier than median
PEG 0.89× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)83 · sector 47
PAST (return on equity)55 · sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)33 · sector 53

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Postal Savings Bank of China Co 601658 ¥5.53 ¥7.59 +37% vs HDFCBANK
China Merchants Bank Co 600036 ¥42.88 ¥52.73 +23% vs HDFCBANK
BNP Paribas SA BNP €91.93 €106.01 +15% vs HDFCBANK
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.18 €4.49 −27% vs HDFCBANK
State Bank of India SBIN ₹1,019 ₹736.65 −28% vs HDFCBANK
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €76.80 €50.44 −34% vs HDFCBANK
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 27.73 SGD 18.20 SGD −34% vs HDFCBANK
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $9.40 $5.90 −37% vs HDFCBANK
DBS Group D05 69.72 SGD 40.39 SGD −42% vs HDFCBANK
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,571 ₹615.63 −61% vs HDFCBANK

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HDFC Bank Limited: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "HDFC Bank Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HDFCBANK

Frequently asked questions

Is HDFC Bank Limited (HDFCBANK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹406.39 versus a price of ₹788.25, about 48% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HDFCBANK?
Our model-based fair value for HDFC Bank Limited is ₹406.39 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹788.25.
What is the quality score of HDFCBANK?
HDFC Bank Limited has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for HDFC Bank Limited (HDFCBANK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹406.39 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹338.48, optimistic scenario ₹563.25. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the HDFC Bank Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹406.39, about 48% lower versus a price of ₹788.25 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹338.48, optimistic scenario ₹563.25. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of HDFC Bank Limited (HDFCBANK)?
HDFC Bank Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹2.9T (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does HDFC Bank Limited pay a dividend?
HDFC Bank Limited currently shows a dividend yield of 1.65% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of HDFC Bank Limited (HDFCBANK) and when is the ex-dividend date?
HDFC Bank Limited pays a dividend of ₹13.00 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.6%. The last ex-dividend date was Jun 19, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2021. The payout ratio is 28.4% of earnings. Our assessment: Low payout. A low payout ratio: the dividend takes at most 60 % of earnings. Whether free cash flow covers it as well, we cannot see for this company.
What is the intrinsic value of HDFC Bank Limited (HDFCBANK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For HDFC Bank Limited it is ₹406.39 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of ₹788.25. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is HDFC Bank Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, HDFCBANK trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹788.25, fair value ₹406.39, a gap of about −48% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HDFCBANK?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹788.25); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹406.39). For HDFC Bank Limited the two are ₹381.86 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is HDFC Bank Limited worth?
The market values HDFC Bank Limited at about ₹12.2T (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is ₹788.25; our models calculate a fair value of ₹406.39 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HDFCBANK?
Our models span a range for HDFC Bank Limited: cautious scenario ₹338.48, base ₹406.39, optimistic ₹563.25 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price ₹788.25). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HDFCBANK?
HDFC Bank Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.2 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹406.39 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 2.1, P/S 4.1, EV/EBITDA 13.3.
What is the PEG ratio of HDFCBANK?
The PEG ratio of HDFC Bank Limited is 0.89 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of HDFC Bank Limited (HDFCBANK)?
Balance-sheet figures for HDFC Bank Limited (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 13.8%, debt of 0.87 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HDFCBANK from its 52-week high?
HDFC Bank Limited trades at ₹788.25, about 21% below its 52-week high of ₹992.67 and 16% above the low of ₹680.20 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹406.39 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to HDFC Bank Limited?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is HDFC Bank Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price ₹788.25, calculated fair value ₹406.39 (−48%), Quality Score 51/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HDFCBANK calculated?
We run HDFC Bank Limited through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ₹406.39 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. HDFC Bank Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of HDFC Bank Limited (HDFCBANK)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was ₹788.25. Our model-based fair value is ₹406.39, about 48% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with HDFC Bank Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹563.25). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of HDFC Bank Limited (HDFCBANK) come from?
Earnings per share at HDFC Bank Limited grew +10.0 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +19.7 %, EBIT margin −10.0 %, tax rate +2.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of HDFC Bank Limited

How large is the market capitalisation of HDFC Bank Limited (HDFCBANK)?
The market capitalisation of HDFC Bank Limited is ₹12.2T (≈ $129B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of HDFC Bank Limited (HDFCBANK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of HDFC Bank Limited is 4.12 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of HDFC Bank Limited (HDFCBANK)?
Earnings per share at HDFC Bank Limited are ₹45.75 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of HDFC Bank Limited (HDFCBANK)?
The dividend yield of HDFC Bank Limited is 1.6% (payout 28.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of HDFC Bank Limited (HDFCBANK)?
The net margin of HDFC Bank Limited is 26.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of HDFC Bank Limited (HDFCBANK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of HDFC Bank Limited is 13.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of HDFC Bank Limited (HDFCBANK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of HDFC Bank Limited is 2.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of HDFC Bank Limited (HDFCBANK)?
The operating margin of HDFC Bank Limited is 33.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at HDFC Bank Limited (HDFCBANK)?
Revenue at HDFC Bank Limited is growing +16.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +34.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at HDFC Bank Limited (HDFCBANK)?
Earnings per share at HDFC Bank Limited are growing +18.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does HDFC Bank Limited (HDFCBANK) generate?
The free cash flow of HDFC Bank Limited is ₹1.6T (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does HDFC Bank Limited (HDFCBANK) carry?
The net debt of HDFC Bank Limited is ₹2.8T (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 1.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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