Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (HHH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. stock $96.82, price $77.73, upside +24.6%, quality 51 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 14 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $48.52 – $95.05 · fair‑value band $33.52 – $176.66 · the $77.73 price screens below the $96.82 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Howard Hughes Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops master planned communities (MPCs) in the United States. It operates through three segments: Operating Assets, MPC, and Strategic Developments.
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The Operating Assets segment acquires or develops retail, office, and multifamily properties, as well as invests in other real estate properties. The MPC segment plans, develops, and sells land in large scale and long term community development projects to homebuilders and developers.
The Strategic Developments segment develops residential condominium and commercial property projects, as well as various other properties. The company was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in The Woodlands, Texas.
Stock analysis
Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (HHH) currently trades at $77.73, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $96.82, implying the stock looks roughly 20% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $96.82 per share, and 5 of the 13 models we run sit above the $77.73 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $42.24, and 8 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $33.52 (bear) to $176.66 (bull), the price of $77.73 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. reported revenue of $1.5B in FY2025 versus $1.4B in FY2021, a compound +0.8%/yr. Reported net income was $124M in FY2025, compounding +21.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $4.6B Mid · P/E ratio 29.6 · P/S ratio 1.76 · EPS (TTM) $2.63 · Net margin 6.6% · Return on equity 4.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.0% (5-year average) · Operating margin 66.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 33% fair-value upside, at 25%, HHH screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$33.52Fair Value $96.82Bull$176.66
Price $77.73 · Upside +24.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.25 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors bought shares worth $1.7M, most recently on Sep 23, 2026. Over the same period, 2 people sold shares worth $1.0M. Buying cluster
BuyAndrew D. DavisChief Operating Officer, HHC1,000 shares at $64.49$64,490Sep 23, 2026
BuyMarc GrandissonExecutive Chairman, Vantage, Director25,000 shares at $64.12$1.6MSep 23, 2026
SaleMary Ann TigheDirector2× since Nov 26, 2025: 19,495 shares, avg. $73.89$1.4MAug 11, 2026
SaleJames CarmanPresident, Houston Region1,500 shares at $64.20$96,300May 15, 2026
SaleAndrew D. DavisChief Operating Officer, HHC1,636 shares at $63.87$104,491Mar 25, 2026
BuyJoseph ValaneGeneral Counsel & Secretary1,260 shares at $64.45$81,207Mar 13, 2026
BuyR Scot SellersDirector5,000 shares at $77.94$389,700Dec 23, 2025
Plus 10 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+9.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Per share before 2024divided by the spin-off factor 1.049
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 10.0% / −5.7%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−17% → 17%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+19.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.5% a year for the price and +16.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: The business gains from a growing specialty insurance platform that adds a second operating engine yet remains constrained by real estate concentration and a complex preferred stake structure.
Main risk: Real estate concentration leaves earnings exposed to cyclical sector pressures that could reduce development profits and limit capital allocation flexibility.
Howard Hughes is moving beyond its land development roots by building a specialty insurance and reinsurance platform alongside its master-planned communities. The Vantage acquisition adds a second operating engine and fresh capital allocation options, yet the business still carries real estate concentration and a complex preferred stake structure. Our models see the stock as undervalued. Will the insurance side scale faster than the real estate operations can shift to an asset-light model?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 489 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Above median
Fair Value upside+24.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)4.3% · Above median
Return on assets1.2% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)6.6% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)66.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)63.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.35× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)29.6× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.22× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)1.76× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)10.4× · Pricier than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HHH
Frequently asked questions
Is Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (HHH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $96.82 versus a price of $77.73, about +25% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HHH?
Our model-based fair value for Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. is $96.82 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $77.73.
What is the quality score of HHH?
Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (HHH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $96.82 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $33.52, optimistic scenario $176.66. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $96.82, about +25% upside versus a price of $77.73 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $33.52, optimistic scenario $176.66. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (HHH)?
Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
What growth is priced into Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (HHH)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +10.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.1 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HHH use?
Our models discount Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. at 10.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.16, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. that is +10.0 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (HHH) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. grew +16.1 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +10.0 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (HHH) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (+10.0 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (HHH)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.59 %: that much free cash flow Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (HHH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. it is $96.82 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $77.73. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models in 5 families (DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, HHH trades below its calculated fair value: price $77.73, fair value $96.82, a gap of about +25% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HHH?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($77.73); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($96.82). For Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. the two are $19.09 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. worth?
The market values Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. at about $4.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $77.73; our models calculate a fair value of $96.82 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HHH?
Our models span a range for Howard Hughes Holdings Inc.: cautious scenario $33.52, base $96.82, optimistic $176.66 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $77.73). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HHH?
Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 29.6 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $96.82 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 5.6, P/B 1.2, P/S 1.8, EV/EBITDA 7.3.
What is the PEG ratio of HHH?
The PEG ratio of Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. is 5.55 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (HHH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 4.3%, debt of 1.35 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HHH from its 52-week high?
Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. trades at $77.73, about 13% below its 52-week high of $89.85 and 29% above the low of $60.22 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $96.82 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Howard Hughes Holdings Inc.?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, China Resources Land Limited, CK Asset Holdings, DLF Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $77.73, calculated fair value $96.82 (+25%), Quality Score 51/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HHH calculated?
We run Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. through 14 models from 5 families: DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $96.82 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. currently trades 20% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (HHH)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $77.73. Our model-based fair value is $96.82, about +25% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($33.52 to $176.66). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (51/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (HHH) come from?
Earnings per share at Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. grew −3.4 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.2 %, EBIT margin +0.4 %, tax rate +0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −7.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Howard Hughes Holdings Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (HHH)?
The market capitalisation of Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. is $4.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (HHH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. is 1.76 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (HHH)?
Earnings per share at Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. are $2.63 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 29.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (HHH)?
The net margin of Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. is 6.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (HHH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. is 4.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (HHH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. is 2.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (HHH)?
The operating margin of Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. is 66.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (HHH)?
Revenue at Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. is growing +63.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (HHH)?
Earnings per share at Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. are growing −33.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (HHH) carry?
The net debt of Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. is $3.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 8, 2026