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Harmonic Inc (HLIT) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Harmonic Inc stock $3.53, price $9.51, that is 62.9% below the price, quality 56 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 13 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Technology US

HI Harmonic Inc logo Some data Nov 4, 2026

Harmonic Inc

HLIT · US
Solid, but very expensive

Our calculation puts a fair price 63% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Generates free cash flow
Upbeat coverage
Last quarter vs. a year ago: revenue +54%, profit +32%.
Quality 56/100
Insiders sold $477,815 (6M)
Some data
Fair value $3.53 · Strongly overvalued
Weak Growth (revenue 5y −1.0 %/yr in USD)
Loss-making · -10.6% net margin (TTM)
Trails peers (5/13)
Narrow moat 33/100 · thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$18.39 $8.25 Fair Value $3.53 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $8.25 – $18.39 · fair‑value band $2.59 – $4.47 · the $9.51 price screens above the $3.53 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 4, 2026.

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Company profile

Harmonic Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides broadband access solutions worldwide.

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The company provides software-based broadband access solution, including cOS software-based broadband access solutions to broadband operators, an end-to-end solution consisting of virtualized cloud-native software; hardware products include Oyster, Ripple and SeaStar DAA nodes; Reef and Wave PHY shelf products; pebble remote PHY Devices; and fin, pearl and pier OLT modules and devices; and cOS software-based broadband access solutions to broadband operators; and cOS central cloud services, a subscription service for cOS customers.

It also provides technical support and professional services, such as maintenance and support, consulting, implementation, integration services, program management, technical design and planning, building and site preparation, integration and equipment installation, end-to-end system testing, and training, as well as SaaS-related support and deployment.

It sells its products through its direct sales force, as well as through independent resellers and systems integrators. It also serves cable and telco operators. The company was incorporated in 1988 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

Stock analysis

Harmonic Inc (HLIT) currently trades at $9.51, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.53, 63% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $6.82 per share, and 0 of the 13 models we run sit above the $9.51 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $0.8300, and 13 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $2.59 (bear) to $4.47 (bull), the price of $9.51 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Harmonic Inc reported revenue of $361M in FY2025 versus $507M in FY2021, a compound −8.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$43.3M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $1.0B Small · P/S ratio 2.50 · EPS (TTM) $0.2600 · Net margin −12.0% · Return on equity 6.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.5% (5-year average) · Operating margin 18.0% · Revenue (TTM) $444M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 33 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at −63%, HLIT screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $2.59 Fair Value $3.53 Bull $4.47
Price $9.51 · Downside -62.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2230 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF $7.04 $8.71 $11.34 82
Growth DCF $7.18 $8.74 $11.04 80
5Y EBITDA Exit $4.94 $6.27 $7.99 77
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $7.04 $8.71 $11.34 82
5Y Revenue Exit $4.02 $4.72 $5.68 74
5Y EBITDA Exit $4.94 $6.27 $7.99 77
10Y Revenue Exit $5.36 $6.13 $6.90 68
10Y EBITDA Exit $5.87 $7.01 $8.22 70
Earnings-Based
EPV $0.7600 $0.8300 $0.9000 74
Multiples
EV/EBIT $2.59 $3.53 $4.47 66
EV/EBITDA $3.26 $4.42 $5.58 67
EV/Revenue $1.20 $1.81 $2.42 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.9600 $1.46 $1.82 55
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $7.18 $8.74 $11.04 80
Rev-Margin DCF $4.02 $4.89 $6.05 74
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder $0.7600 $0.8300 $0.9000 72

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 56/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 14
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 0
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 97
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 50
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 88
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 23
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 24
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 16
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 100
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors sold shares worth $477,815 and none bought.

  • SaleStephanie CopelandDirector4,300 shares at $13.31$57,233May 14, 2026
  • SaleNeven HaltmayerSVP & GM, Video Business2× since Dec 12, 2025: 61,766 shares, avg. $11.89$734,209May 13, 2026
  • BuyDavid KrallDirector47,528 shares at $10.50$499,044Dec 11, 2025

Plus 18 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 39/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−46.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−16.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.4% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−3.3% (2020) → 4.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+15.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +1.1% a year for the price and +12.4% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+51.1%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+8.8%
Projected 2028 (sales)+8.0%
Projected 2029 (sales)+7.1%
Projected 2030 (sales)+6.3%

HLIT screens overvalued: fair value 63% below the price. Compare with Cisco Systems, Inc →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Communication Equipment · 303 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 56 · Above median
Fair Value upside −62.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 6.6% · Above median
Return on assets −6.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −10.6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 18.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 53.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.29× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Communication Equipment median · lower = cheaper

P/B 2.72× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 2.35× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 10.8× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 16.1× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.84× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 57
PAST (return on equity)26 · sector 21
HEALTH (low debt)86 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 24

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Communication Equipment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Cisco Systems, Inc CSCO $93.85 $103.24 +10% vs HLIT
Eoptolink Technology Inc 300502 ¥172.10 ¥189.31 +10% vs HLIT
Ubiquiti Inc UI $592.84 $652.12 +10% vs HLIT
Zhongji Innolight Co 300308 ¥448.00 ¥342.18 −24% vs HLIT
Nokia Oyj NOKIA €6.98 €3.87 −45% vs HLIT
Motorola Solutions, Inc MSI $514.51 $249.63 −51% vs HLIT
Foxconn Industrial Internet Co 601138 ¥40.71 ¥13.93 −66% vs HLIT
Ciena Corporation CIEN $243.39 $74.58 −69% vs HLIT
Yangtze Optical Fibre And Cable Joint Stock Limited 601869 ¥240.00 ¥59.92 −75% vs HLIT
Lumentum Holdings LITE $538.59 $85.88 −84% vs HLIT

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Harmonic Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Harmonic Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HLIT

Frequently asked questions

Is Harmonic Inc (HLIT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.53 versus a price of $9.51, about 63% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HLIT?
Our model-based fair value for Harmonic Inc is $3.53 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $9.51.
What is the quality score of HLIT?
Harmonic Inc has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Harmonic Inc (HLIT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.53 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.59, optimistic scenario $4.47. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Harmonic Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.53, about 63% lower versus a price of $9.51 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.59, optimistic scenario $4.47. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Harmonic Inc (HLIT)?
Harmonic Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $444M (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Harmonic Inc (HLIT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Harmonic Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +3.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.0 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HLIT use?
Our models discount Harmonic Inc at 12.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.40, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Harmonic Inc that is +3.5 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (12.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Harmonic Inc (HLIT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Harmonic Inc grew -1.0 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +3.5 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Harmonic Inc (HLIT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Harmonic Inc (+3.5 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Harmonic Inc (HLIT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.29 %: that much free cash flow Harmonic Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Harmonic Inc (HLIT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Harmonic Inc it is $3.53 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $9.51. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Harmonic Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, HLIT trades above its calculated fair value: price $9.51, fair value $3.53, a gap of about −63% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HLIT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($9.51); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.53). For Harmonic Inc the two are $5.98 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Harmonic Inc worth?
The market values Harmonic Inc at about $1.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $9.51; our models calculate a fair value of $3.53 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HLIT?
Our models span a range for Harmonic Inc: cautious scenario $2.59, base $3.53, optimistic $4.47 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $9.51). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of HLIT?
The PEG ratio of Harmonic Inc is 1.84 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Harmonic Inc (HLIT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Harmonic Inc (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 6.6%, debt of 0.29 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HLIT from its 52-week high?
Harmonic Inc trades at $9.51, about 44% below its 52-week high of $17.11 and 7% above the low of $8.85 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.53 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Harmonic Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Cisco Systems, Inc, Foxconn Industrial Internet Co, Zhongji Innolight Co, Motorola Solutions, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Harmonic Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $9.51, calculated fair value $3.53 (−63%), Quality Score 56/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HLIT calculated?
We run Harmonic Inc through 13 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $3.53 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Harmonic Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Harmonic Inc (HLIT)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $9.51. Our model-based fair value is $3.53, about 63% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Harmonic Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($4.47). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of Harmonic Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Harmonic Inc (HLIT)?
The market capitalisation of Harmonic Inc is $1.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Harmonic Inc (HLIT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Harmonic Inc is 2.50 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Harmonic Inc (HLIT)?
Earnings per share at Harmonic Inc are $0.2600. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Harmonic Inc (HLIT)?
The net margin of Harmonic Inc is −12.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Harmonic Inc (HLIT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Harmonic Inc is 6.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Harmonic Inc (HLIT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Harmonic Inc is 4.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Harmonic Inc (HLIT)?
The operating margin of Harmonic Inc is 18.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Harmonic Inc (HLIT)?
Revenue at Harmonic Inc is growing +53.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −16.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Harmonic Inc (HLIT)?
Earnings per share at Harmonic Inc are growing +31.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Harmonic Inc (HLIT) carry?
The net debt of Harmonic Inc is $23.7M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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