Harmonic Inc (HLIT) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $1.6B
Harmonic Inc
HLIT · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from $3.15 to $2.61 (−17.1%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −13.8% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 78% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.31). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.73 – $18.39 · fair‑value band $1.90 – $3.31 · the $11.84 price screens above the $2.61 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Harmonic Inc (HLIT) currently trades at $11.84, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.61, implying the stock looks roughly 78.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Harmonic Inc generated revenue of $397M at a net margin of -10.6%. Revenue grew 43.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.1%. Net debt stands at $23.7M. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $1.90 (bear case) to $3.31 (bull case); at $11.84, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -61% fair-value upside, at -78%, HLIT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($6.44) versus Dividend Discount ($0.3400). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Harmonic Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides broadband access solutions worldwide. The company provides software-based broadband access solution, including cOS software-based broadband access solutions to broadband operators, an end-to-end solution consisting of virtualized cloud-native software; hardware products include Oyster, Ripple and …
Full company description
Harmonic Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides broadband access solutions worldwide. The company provides software-based broadband access solution, including cOS software-based broadband access solutions to broadband operators, an end-to-end solution consisting of virtualized cloud-native software; hardware products include Oyster, Ripple and SeaStar DAA nodes; Reef and Wave PHY shelf products; pebble remote PHY Devices; and fin, pearl and pier OLT modules and devices; and cOS software-based broadband access solutions to broadband operators; and cOS central cloud services, a subscription service for cOS customers. It also provides technical support and professional services, such as maintenance and support, consulting, implementation, integration services, program management, technical design and planning, building and site preparation, integration and equipment installation, end-to-end system testing, and training, as well as SaaS-related support and deployment. It sells its products through its direct sales force, as well as through independent resellers and systems integrators. It also serves cable and telco operators. The company was incorporated in 1988 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Harmonic Inc reported revenue of $361M in FY2025 versus $507M in FY2021, a compound −8.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$43.3M in FY2025.
HLIT screens 78% overvalued. Compare with Cisco Systems, Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- HLIT Stock Lags Industry in the Past Year: An Opportunity to Buy?
- Harmonic vs. Belden: Which Connectivity Stock is a Better Buy Now?
- Harmonic Benefits From Solid Organic Growth Drivers: Worth a Buy?
- Is Harmonic Inc. (HLIT) A Good Stock To Buy Now?
Peer Group
Communication Equipment · 290 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Communication Equipment median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Communication Equipment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cisco Systems, Inc CSCO | $119.25 | $43.05 | -64% |
| Zhongji Innolight Co 300308 | ¥1,094 | ¥171.09 | -84% |
| Foxconn Industrial Internet Co 601138 | ¥56.50 | ¥28.65 | -49% |
| Eoptolink Technology Inc 300502 | ¥482.88 | ¥155.05 | -68% |
| Nokia Oyj NOK | $11.25 | $2.67 | -76% |
| Motorola Solutions, Inc MSI | $413.31 | $190.43 | -54% |
| Suzhou TFC Optical Communication Co 300394 | ¥244.13 | ¥32.04 | -87% |
| Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ), ERIC | $11.72 | $15.96 | +36% |
| Accton Technology Corporation 2345 | 2,090 TWD | 846.28 TWD | -60% |
| ZTE Corporation 000063 | ¥40.00 | ¥15.75 | -61% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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