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Horizon Gold Ltd (HRN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 11, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Horizon Gold Ltd stock A$0.55, price A$1.11, that is 50.5% below the price, quality 29 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

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Basic Materials AU · ISIN AU000000HRN5

HG Horizon Gold Ltd logo Thin data Nov 10, 2026

Horizon Gold Ltd

HRN · AU
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 50% below what the stock costs today.

Revenue last quarter +65% vs. a year ago.
Mixed vs. peers (3/7)
Fair value A$0.5500 · Strongly overvalued
Quality 29/100
Weak Growth (revenue 3y −5.2 %/yr in AUD)
Negative free cash flow
Narrow moat 12/100 · thin data
Thin data
⟳ CyclicalEstimate
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$1.55 A$0.2450 Fair Value A$0.5500 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.2450 – A$1.55 · fair‑value band A$0.4100 – A$0.6900 · the A$1.11 price screens above the A$0.5500 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 10, 2026.

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Company profile

Horizon Gold Limited engages in the exploration and evaluation of gold deposits in Australia. Its flagship project is the 100% owned Gum Creek gold project covering an area of approximately 663 square kilometers, located in the Yilgarn Craton in Western Australia.

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The company was incorporated in 2016 and is based in West Perth, Australia. Horizon Gold Limited is a subsidiary of Zeta Resources Limited.

Stock analysis

Horizon Gold Ltd (HRN) currently trades at A$1.11, while our estimate is A$0.5500, 50% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: A$0.4100 (bear) to A$0.6900 (bull), the price of A$1.11 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Horizon Gold Ltd reported revenue of A$116K in FY2025 versus A$13.0K in FY2021, a compound +72.8%/yr. Reported net income was −A$2.0M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap A$218M (≈ $150M) Micro · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0100 · Return on equity −3.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.9% (5-year average) · Revenue (TTM) A$80.0K · Revenue growth (YoY) +65.2% · Free cash flow −A$2.3M · Net cash A$3.8M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 12 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 59% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −13% fair-value upside, at −50%, HRN screens richer than that median.

Fair Value

Bear A$0.4100 Fair Value A$0.5500 Bull A$0.6900
Price A$1.11 · Downside -50.5%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 29/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 4
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 80
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 5
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 79
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 0
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 50
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 70
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 71
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 27/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+78.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+40.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−12.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
22,323.8% (2020) → −1,285.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

HRN screens overvalued: fair value 50% below the price. Compare with Newmont Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 286 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 29 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −50.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −2.3% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months) 0.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 65.2% · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper

P/B 3.03× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 5
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 80
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 99
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 24

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM $190.46 $220.88 +16% vs HRN
Newmont Corporation NEM $119.96 $137.68 +15% vs HRN
Royal Gold, Inc RGLD $274.57 $259.27 −6% vs HRN
AngloGold Ashanti plc AU $93.85 $88.58 −6% vs HRN
Shandong Gold Mining Co 600547 ¥27.00 ¥23.61 −13% vs HRN
Kinross Gold Corporation KGC $21.53 $18.00 −16% vs HRN
Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV $255.79 $212.28 −17% vs HRN
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM $136.62 $87.64 −36% vs HRN
Northern Star Resources Limited NST A$26.73 A$16.87 −37% vs HRN
Zijin Mining Group 601899 ¥28.18 ¥15.62 −45% vs HRN

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Horizon Gold Ltd: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Horizon Gold Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HRN

Frequently asked questions

Is Horizon Gold Ltd (HRN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our estimate of fair value is A$0.5500 versus a price of A$1.11, about 50% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HRN?
Our estimate for Horizon Gold Ltd is A$0.5500 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$1.11.
What is the quality score of HRN?
Horizon Gold Ltd has a Quality Score of 29/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Horizon Gold Ltd (HRN)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of A$0.5500 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Cautious scenario A$0.4100, optimistic scenario A$0.6900. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the Horizon Gold Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at A$0.5500, about 50% lower versus a price of A$1.11 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.4100, optimistic scenario A$0.6900. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Horizon Gold Ltd (HRN)?
Horizon Gold Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$80.0K (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Horizon Gold Ltd (HRN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Horizon Gold Ltd it is A$0.5500 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of A$1.11.
Is Horizon Gold Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, HRN trades above its calculated fair value: price A$1.11, fair value A$0.5500, a gap of about −50% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HRN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$1.11); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.5500). For Horizon Gold Ltd the two are A$0.5600 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Horizon Gold Ltd worth?
The market values Horizon Gold Ltd at about A$218M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is A$1.11; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.5500 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HRN?
Our models span a range for Horizon Gold Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.4100, base A$0.5500, optimistic A$0.6900 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price A$1.11). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Horizon Gold Ltd (HRN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Horizon Gold Ltd (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity −3.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 29/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HRN from its 52-week high?
Horizon Gold Ltd trades at A$1.11, about 28% below its 52-week high of A$1.55 and 59% above the low of A$0.7000 (as of Nov 11, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.5500 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Horizon Gold Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Horizon Gold Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price A$1.11, calculated fair value A$0.5500 (−50%), Quality Score 29/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. Horizon Gold Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Horizon Gold Ltd (HRN)?
The closing price on Nov 11, 2026 was A$1.11. Our estimate is A$0.5500, about 50% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Horizon Gold Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.6900). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (29/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Horizon Gold Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Horizon Gold Ltd (HRN)?
The market capitalisation of Horizon Gold Ltd is A$218M (≈ $150M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Horizon Gold Ltd (HRN)?
Earnings per share at Horizon Gold Ltd are A$−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Horizon Gold Ltd (HRN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Horizon Gold Ltd is −3.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Horizon Gold Ltd (HRN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Horizon Gold Ltd is −2.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Horizon Gold Ltd (HRN)?
Revenue at Horizon Gold Ltd is growing +65.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Horizon Gold Ltd (HRN) generate?
The free cash flow of Horizon Gold Ltd is −A$2.3M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Horizon Gold Ltd (HRN) hold?
Horizon Gold Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$3.8M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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