Horizon Gold Ltd (HRN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Horizon Gold Ltd A$0.12, price A$1.05, upside -88.6%, quality 35 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Horizon Gold Ltd for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.2450 – A$1.55 · fair‑value band A$0.0900 – A$0.1700 · the A$1.05 price screens above the A$0.1200 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Follow Horizon Gold in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Horizon Gold is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Horizon Gold Limited engages in the exploration and evaluation of gold deposits in Australia. Its flagship project is the 100% owned Gum Creek gold project covering an area of approximately 663 square kilometers, located in the Yilgarn Craton in Western Australia. The company was incorporated in 2016 and is based in West Perth, Australia.
Show more
Horizon Gold Limited engages in the exploration and evaluation of gold deposits in Australia. Its flagship project is the 100% owned Gum Creek gold project covering an area of approximately 663 square kilometers, located in the Yilgarn Craton in Western Australia. The company was incorporated in 2016 and is based in West Perth, Australia. Horizon Gold Limited is a subsidiary of Zeta Resources Limited.
Stock analysis
Horizon Gold Ltd (HRN) currently trades at A$1.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.1200, implying the stock looks roughly 774.9% overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: A$0.0900 (bear) to A$0.1700 (bull), the price of A$1.05 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Horizon Gold Ltd reported revenue of A$116K in FY2025 versus A$13.0K in FY2021, a compound +72.8%/yr. Reported net income was −A$972K in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap A$225M (≈ $158M) · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0100 · Return on equity −2.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.8% · Revenue (TTM) A$80.0K · Revenue growth (YoY) +65.2% · Free cash flow −A$5.4M · Net cash A$3.0K.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 126% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 34% fair-value upside, at −89%, HRN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.0900Fair Value A$0.1200Bull A$0.1700
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.27/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+78.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+40.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−12.7%
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
22,323.8% (2020) → −1,285.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 237 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score37 · Below median
Fair Value upside−89% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth65% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper
P/B4.72× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 17
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 20
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Horizon Gold Ltd (HRN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.1200 versus a price of A$1.05, about −89% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HRN?
Our model-based fair value for Horizon Gold Ltd is A$0.1200 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$1.05.
What is the quality score of HRN?
Horizon Gold Ltd has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Horizon Gold Ltd (HRN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.1200 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0900, optimistic scenario A$0.1700. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Horizon Gold Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.1200, about −89% upside versus a price of A$1.05 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0900, optimistic scenario A$0.1700. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Horizon Gold Ltd (HRN)?
Horizon Gold Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$80.0K (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Horizon Gold Ltd (HRN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Horizon Gold Ltd it is A$0.1200 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of A$1.05. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Horizon Gold Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, HRN trades above its calculated fair value: price A$1.05, fair value A$0.1200, a gap of about −89% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HRN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$1.05); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.1200). For Horizon Gold Ltd the two are A$0.9300 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Horizon Gold Ltd worth?
The market values Horizon Gold Ltd at about A$225M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is A$1.05; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.1200 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HRN?
Our models span a range for Horizon Gold Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0900, base A$0.1200, optimistic A$0.1700 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price A$1.05). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Horizon Gold Ltd (HRN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Horizon Gold Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −2.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 35/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HRN from its 52-week high?
Horizon Gold Ltd trades at A$1.05, about 36% below its 52-week high of A$1.63 and 126% above the low of A$0.4650 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.1200 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Horizon Gold Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Zijin Mining Group, Newmont Corporation, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Barrick Mining Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Horizon Gold Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price A$1.05, calculated fair value A$0.1200 (−89%), Quality Score 35/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HRN calculated?
We run Horizon Gold Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.1200, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Horizon Gold Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Horizon Gold Ltd (HRN)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was A$1.05. Our model-based fair value is A$0.1200, about −89% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Horizon Gold Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.1700). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (35/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (A$0.0900 to A$0.1700) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Horizon Gold Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Horizon Gold Ltd (HRN)?
The market capitalisation of Horizon Gold Ltd is A$225M (≈ $158M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Horizon Gold Ltd (HRN)?
Earnings per share at Horizon Gold Ltd are A$−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Horizon Gold Ltd (HRN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Horizon Gold Ltd is −2.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Horizon Gold Ltd (HRN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Horizon Gold Ltd is −2.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Horizon Gold Ltd (HRN)?
Revenue at Horizon Gold Ltd is growing +65.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Horizon Gold Ltd (HRN) generate?
The free cash flow of Horizon Gold Ltd is −A$5.4M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Horizon Gold Ltd (HRN) hold?
Horizon Gold Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$3.0K net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch Horizon Gold Ltd in the live analysis
One click puts Horizon Gold Ltd on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
