InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of InterContinental Hotels Group PLC stock $173, price $179, that is 3.2% below the price, quality 74 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 23 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $43.77 – $178.75 · fair‑value band $118.42 – $228.26 · the $178.75 price screens above the $173.06 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 9, 2026.
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InterContinental Hotels Group PLC owns, manages, franchises, and leases hotels in the United Kingdom, the United States, and internationally.
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It operates hotels under the Six Senses, Regent, InterContinental Hotels & Resorts, Vignette Collection, Kimpton Hotel, Hotel Indigo, voco, Ruby, HUALUXE, Crowne Plaza, Iberostar Beachfront Resorts, EVEN Hotels, Holiday Inn Express, Holiday Inn, Garner, avid hotels, Atwell Suites, Staybridge Suites, IHG, Holiday Inn Club Vacations, and Candlewood Suites brand names.
The company also provides IHG Rewards loyalty program. InterContinental Hotels Group PLC was formerly known as Six Continents PLC and changed its name to InterContinental Hotels Group PLC in June 2003. The company was founded in 1777 and is headquartered in Windsor, United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG) currently trades at $178.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $173.06, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 3.3%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $103.92 per share, and 0 of the 23 models we run sit above the $178.75 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $31.09, and 23 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $118.42 (bear) to $228.26 (bull), the price of $178.75 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC ADR reported revenue of $5.2B in FY2025 versus $2.9B in FY2021, a compound +15.6%/yr. Reported net income was $758M in FY2025, compounding +29.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $27.0B Large · P/E ratio 38.0 · P/S ratio 5.54 · EPS (TTM) $4.71 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin 14.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 18.4% (5-year average) · Operating margin 25.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 70 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 45% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at −3%, IHG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$118.42Fair Value $173.06Bull$228.26
Price $178.75 · Downside -3.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.41 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.1% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+22.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+21.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.22.4% vs 8.6%, picking up
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 23%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+18.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−9.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +15.8% a year for the price and −11.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Asset-light lodging with brand scale offers moderate organization capital and long-term fee potential from the development pipeline, yet negative equity and ramp-up drags from new hotels limit overall moat durability.
Main risk: Large language models or AI agents could steer guests toward online travel agencies instead of direct channels, raising distribution costs and reducing control over customer relationships for IHG's fee-based model.
Bull case: IHG could leverage its new AI-compatible content platform and conversational search tools to maintain direct booking share and strengthen owner returns even as distribution shifts occur.
Bear case: If AI agents and short-term rentals gain ground while franchise disputes escalate, IHG's fee growth from the development pipeline could slow as owners face higher costs and guests shift to alternatives.
IHG runs an asset-light model that drives a large development pipeline while funding repeated share buybacks to shrink its equity base. Rapid system growth delivers long-term fee potential but can create near-term drag as new hotels ramp up, especially with uneven demand across regions. Will the fee income from the expanding pipeline outweigh those short-term pressures and any persistent softness in key markets?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Lodging · 157 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score74 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−3.2% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets14.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)13.4% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)25.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)5.6% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Lodging median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)38.0× · Priciest 25%
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "InterContinental Hotels Group PLC ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/IHG
Frequently asked questions
Is InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $173.06 versus a price of $178.75, about 3% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of IHG?
Our model-based fair value for InterContinental Hotels Group PLC is $173.06 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $178.75.
What is the quality score of IHG?
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC has a Quality Score of 74/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $173.06 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $118.42, optimistic scenario $228.26. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the InterContinental Hotels Group PLC ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $173.06, about 3% lower versus a price of $178.75 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $118.42, optimistic scenario $228.26. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG)?
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
Does InterContinental Hotels Group PLC ADR pay a dividend?
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC currently shows a dividend yield of 1.07% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 9, 2026).
How much is the dividend of InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG) and when is the ex-dividend date?
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC pays a dividend of $1.90 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.1%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 21, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2022. The payout ratio is 40.4% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 3.13 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, InterContinental Hotels Group PLC would have to grow free cash flow by +18.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.7 % per year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of IHG use?
Our models discount InterContinental Hotels Group PLC at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.03, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For InterContinental Hotels Group PLC that is +18.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at InterContinental Hotels Group PLC grew +16.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +18.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (+18.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.22 %: that much free cash flow InterContinental Hotels Group PLC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For InterContinental Hotels Group PLC it is $173.06 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of $178.75. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is InterContinental Hotels Group PLC ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, IHG trades above its calculated fair value: price $178.75, fair value $173.06, a gap of about −3% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of IHG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($178.75); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($173.06). For InterContinental Hotels Group PLC the two are $5.69 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is InterContinental Hotels Group PLC ADR worth?
The market values InterContinental Hotels Group PLC at about $27.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is $178.75; our models calculate a fair value of $173.06 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about IHG?
Our models span a range for InterContinental Hotels Group PLC: cautious scenario $118.42, base $173.06, optimistic $228.26 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price $178.75). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of IHG?
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 38.0 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $173.06 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2019 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2019 ex one-offs: 29.9. Other multiples: PEG 1.3, P/S 5.1, EV/EBITDA 23.0.
What is the PEG ratio of IHG?
The PEG ratio of InterContinental Hotels Group PLC is 1.27 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 9, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG)?
Balance-sheet figures for InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (as of Nov 9, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 74/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is IHG from its 52-week high?
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC trades at $178.75, at its 52-week high of $178.75 and 45% above the low of $123.06 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $173.06 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to InterContinental Hotels Group PLC ADR?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Marriott International, Inc, Hilton Worldwide Holdings, Hyatt Hotels Corporation, H World Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is InterContinental Hotels Group PLC ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price $178.75, calculated fair value $173.06 (−3%), Quality Score 74/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of IHG calculated?
We run InterContinental Hotels Group PLC through 23 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $173.06 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. InterContinental Hotels Group PLC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $178.75. Our model-based fair value is $173.06, about 3% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with InterContinental Hotels Group PLC ADR right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($118.42 to $228.26) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG) come from?
Earnings per share at InterContinental Hotels Group PLC grew +2.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +12.9 %, EBIT margin −8.5 %, tax rate −0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of InterContinental Hotels Group PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG)?
The market capitalisation of InterContinental Hotels Group PLC is $27.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of InterContinental Hotels Group PLC is 5.54 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG)?
Earnings per share at InterContinental Hotels Group PLC are $4.71 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 38.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG)?
The dividend yield of InterContinental Hotels Group PLC is 1.1% (payout 40.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG)?
The net margin of InterContinental Hotels Group PLC is 14.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of InterContinental Hotels Group PLC is 18.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG)?
The operating margin of InterContinental Hotels Group PLC is 25.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG)?
Revenue at InterContinental Hotels Group PLC is growing +5.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG)?
Earnings per share at InterContinental Hotels Group PLC are growing −5.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG) carry?
The net debt of InterContinental Hotels Group PLC is $3.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 9, 2026