Iveco Group NV (IVG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Iveco Group NV stock €17.48, price €14.35, upside +21.8%, quality 51 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
58‑month range €3.19 – €14.40 · fair‑value band €11.55 – €28.13 · the €14.35 price screens below the €17.48 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Iveco Group N.V. engages in the design, production, marketing, sale, servicing, and financing of trucks, commercial vehicles, buses, specialty vehicles, combustion engines, alternative propulsion systems, transmissions, axles, and engines in Europe, South America, North America, and internationally.
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It operates in four segments: Truck, Bus, Powertrain, and Financial Services.
The company offers light, medium, and heavy vehicles for the transportation and distribution of goods under the IVECO brand; and minibuses, city buses, intercity buses, and coaches for tour and intercity bus service operators, and transport authorities under the IVECO BUS and HEULIEZ brands.
It also designs, manufactures, and distributes combustion engines, alternative propulsion systems, transmission systems, and axles for on- and off-road applications, agricultural and construction equipment, and marine and power generation applications under the FPT Industrial brand.
In addition, the company offers financial products and services to dealers and customers; retail financing services to customers for the purchase or lease of new and used vehicles sold by brand dealers and distributors; wholesale financing consisting primarily of floor plan financing, which allows dealers to purchase and maintain a representative inventory of products; and discounts on non-dealer trade receivables.
Further, it provides ePropulsion products, including eAxles, central drives, and electric drive units; energy storage systems, battery packs, and battery management systems; fuel-cell electric solutions and hybrid vehicle solutions, such as electric assist systems; and fuel cell electric vehicles.
Iveco Group N.V. was founded in 1864 and is headquartered in Turin, Italy.
Stock analysis
Iveco Group NV (IVG) currently trades at €14.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €17.48, implying the stock looks roughly 18% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €20.62 per share, and 15 of the 24 models we run sit above the €14.35 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €2.67, and 9 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €11.55 (bear) to €28.13 (bull), the price of €14.35 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Iveco Group NV reported revenue of €13.4B in FY2025 versus €12.5B in FY2021, a compound +1.8%/yr. Reported net income was €289M in FY2025, compounding +39.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €3.8B Mid · P/E ratio 62.4 · P/S ratio 1.34 · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin 2.2% · Return on equity 0.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.4% (5-year average) · Operating margin 0.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 33 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 22%, IVG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€11.55Fair Value €17.48Bull€28.13
Price €14.35 · Upside +21.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+25.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+23.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.3%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−4% → 4%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−3.0%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −5.1% a year for the price and +4.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Iveco's deliberate investments in quality and customer experience to become a premium partner represent its main strength, while thin profitability and a limited moat in the competitive machinery sector remain the core weakness.
Main risk: Softer demand combined with the shift to new ownership after the spin-off could pressure near-term profitability and delay efficiency gains from the quality initiatives.
Iveco is investing in quality improvements and a broader customer experience across its trucks, buses and powertrains to become a premium partner rather than just a vehicle supplier. These deliberate steps have weighed on near-term profitability even as revenues grew. Will the lasting efficiency and brand gains from this approach outweigh the pressures from softer demand and the shift to new ownership?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 146 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Below median
Fair Value upside+21.8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets1.5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)9.3% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)0.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)1.4% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.90× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Iveco Group NV Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/IVG
Frequently asked questions
Is Iveco Group NV (IVG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €17.48 versus a price of €14.35, about +22% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of IVG?
Our model-based fair value for Iveco Group NV is €17.48 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €14.35.
What is the quality score of IVG?
Iveco Group NV has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Iveco Group NV (IVG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €17.48 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €11.55, optimistic scenario €28.13. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Iveco Group NV stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €17.48, about +22% upside versus a price of €14.35 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €11.55, optimistic scenario €28.13. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Iveco Group NV (IVG)?
Iveco Group NV reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €13.7B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Iveco Group NV pay a dividend?
Iveco Group NV currently shows a dividend yield of 2.30% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Iveco Group NV (IVG)?
Iveco Group NV has a dividend yield of 2.3%.
What growth is priced into Iveco Group NV (IVG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Iveco Group NV would have to grow free cash flow by -3.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.2 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of IVG use?
Our models discount Iveco Group NV at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.01, country premium for Italy. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Iveco Group NV that is -3.0 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Iveco Group NV (IVG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Iveco Group NV grew +5.2 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -3.0 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Iveco Group NV (IVG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Iveco Group NV (-3.0 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Iveco Group NV (IVG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 22.08 %: that much free cash flow Iveco Group NV produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Iveco Group NV (IVG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Iveco Group NV it is €17.48 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of €14.35. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Iveco Group NV stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, IVG trades below its calculated fair value: price €14.35, fair value €17.48, a gap of about +22% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of IVG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€14.35); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€17.48). For Iveco Group NV the two are €3.13 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Iveco Group NV worth?
The market values Iveco Group NV at about €3.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is €14.35; our models calculate a fair value of €17.48 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about IVG?
Our models span a range for Iveco Group NV: cautious scenario €11.55, base €17.48, optimistic €28.13 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price €14.35). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of IVG?
Iveco Group NV trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 62.4 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €17.48 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 12.4 (reported for FY2025: 13.5).
How solid is the balance sheet of Iveco Group NV (IVG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Iveco Group NV (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 0.1%, debt of 1.90 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is IVG from its 52-week high?
Iveco Group NV trades at €14.35, at its 52-week high of €14.40 and 12% above the low of €12.86 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €17.48 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Iveco Group NV?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Caterpillar Inc, Deere & Company, PACCAR Inc, Daimler Truck Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Iveco Group NV stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price €14.35, calculated fair value €17.48 (+22%), Quality Score 51/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of IVG calculated?
We run Iveco Group NV through 24 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €17.48 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Iveco Group NV currently trades 18% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Iveco Group NV (IVG)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €14.35. Our model-based fair value is €17.48, about +22% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Iveco Group NV right now?
Solid quality (51/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (€11.55 to €28.13) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Iveco Group NV
How large is the market capitalisation of Iveco Group NV (IVG)?
The market capitalisation of Iveco Group NV is €3.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Iveco Group NV (IVG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Iveco Group NV is 1.34 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Iveco Group NV (IVG)?
The dividend yield of Iveco Group NV is 2.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Iveco Group NV (IVG)?
The net margin of Iveco Group NV is 2.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Iveco Group NV (IVG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Iveco Group NV is 0.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Iveco Group NV (IVG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Iveco Group NV is 3.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Iveco Group NV (IVG)?
The operating margin of Iveco Group NV is 0.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Iveco Group NV (IVG)?
Revenue at Iveco Group NV is growing +1.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Iveco Group NV (IVG)?
Earnings per share at Iveco Group NV are growing −64.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Iveco Group NV (IVG) carry?
The net debt of Iveco Group NV is €3.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 7, 2026