Iveco Group (IVG) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · IT · Market cap €3.7B
Fair value as of: Aug 9, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price −0.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 39% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Weak quality (35/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range (€7.13 to €16.94) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
55‑month range €3.19 – €14.03 · fair‑value band €7.13 – €16.94 · the €13.91 price screens above the €8.45 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 9, 2026.
Analysis
Iveco Group (IVG) currently trades at €13.91, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €8.45, implying the stock looks roughly 39.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Iveco Group generated revenue of €13.5B at a net margin of 10.6%. Revenue grew 0.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.1%. Net debt stands at €3.0B. Fundamentals as of Aug 9, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €7.13 (bear case) to €16.94 (bull case); at €13.91, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 12% fair-value upside, at -39%, IVG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (€18.45) versus Dividend Discount (€3.16). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 9, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 35 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Iveco Group N.V. engages in the design, production, marketing, sale, servicing, and financing of trucks, commercial vehicles, buses, specialty vehicles, combustion engines, alternative propulsion systems, transmissions, axles, and engines in Europe, South America, North America, and internationally.
Full company description
Iveco Group N.V. engages in the design, production, marketing, sale, servicing, and financing of trucks, commercial vehicles, buses, specialty vehicles, combustion engines, alternative propulsion systems, transmissions, axles, and engines in Europe, South America, North America, and internationally. It operates in four segments: Truck, Bus, Powertrain, and Financial Services. The company offers light, medium, and heavy vehicles for the transportation and distribution of goods under the IVECO brand; and minibuses, city buses, intercity buses, and coaches for tour and intercity bus service operators, and transport authorities under the IVECO BUS and HEULIEZ brands. It also designs, manufactures, and distributes combustion engines, alternative propulsion systems, transmission systems, and axles for on- and off-road applications, agricultural and construction equipment, and marine and power generation applications under the FPT Industrial brand. In addition, the company offers financial products and services to dealers and customers; retail financing services to customers for the purchase or lease of new and used vehicles sold by brand dealers and distributors; wholesale financing consisting primarily of floor plan financing, which allows dealers to purchase and maintain a representative inventory of products; and discounts on non-dealer trade receivables. Further, it provides ePropulsion products, including eAxles, central drives, and electric drive units; energy storage systems, battery packs, and battery management systems; fuel-cell electric solutions and hybrid vehicle solutions, such as electric assist systems; and fuel cell electric vehicles. Iveco Group N.V. was founded in 1864 and is headquartered in Turin, Italy.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Iveco Group reported revenue of €13.4B in FY2025 versus €12.5B in FY2021, a compound +1.8%/yr. Reported net income was €289M in FY2025, compounding +39.6%/yr from FY2021.
IVG screens 39% overvalued. Compare with Caterpillar Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Iveco Group announces transition to new Chief Financial Officer
- Iveco Group 2026 Second Quarter Results
- IVECO reinforces its premium partner ambition with the launch of its Model Year 26 range
- Tata Motors eyes top-four CV slot via Iveco deal
Peer Group
Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 148 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 9, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caterpillar Inc CAT | $952.41 | $307.83 | -68% |
| Deere & Company DE | $597.24 | $187.86 | -69% |
| AB Volvo (publ), VOLVA | kr 336.60 | kr 288.08 | -14% |
| PACCAR Inc PCAR | $126.20 | $94.80 | -25% |
| Epiroc AB EPIA | kr 251.90 | kr 144.14 | -43% |
| Exor N.V EXO | €69.40 | €219.41 | +216% |
| Sany Heavy Industry Co 600031 | ¥18.65 | ¥20.84 | +12% |
| XCMG Construction Machinery Co 000425 | ¥8.39 | ¥11.79 | +41% |
| Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited 3808 | HK$41.00 | HK$53.51 | +31% |
| Yutong Bus Co 600066 | ¥32.29 | ¥42.00 | +30% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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