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Mechanics Bank (MCHB) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Mechanics Bank stock $12.56, price $14.72, that is 14.7% below the price, quality 48 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services US

MB Mechanics Bank logo Broad data Nov 4, 2026

Mechanics Bank

MCHB · US
Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 15% below what the stock costs today.

Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +20.8 %/yr in USD)
Highly profitable · 37.9% net margin (TTM)
Ranks above peers (9/14)
Positive coverage
Broad data
Revenue last quarter +36% vs. a year ago.
Quality 48/100
8.9% dividend yield · Payout strained
Wide moat 68/100 · thin data
Insiders sold $30 (6M)
Fair value $12.56 · Overvalued (−14.7%)
⚠ Small free float
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$46.90 $3.99 Fair Value $12.56 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.99 – $46.90 · fair‑value band $10.19 – $16.16 · the $14.72 price screens above the $12.56 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 4, 2026.

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Company profile

Mechanics Bancorp operates as the holding company for Mechanics Bank that provides banking services in California, Oregon, Washington, and Hawaii. It offers various checking and savings accounts, retirement accounts, money market accounts, time certificates of deposit, and safe deposit boxes.

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The company also provides home loans, auto loans, term loans and lines of credit, owner occupied real estate lending services, small business lending loans, multi-family lending services; mortgage and consumer lending loans; commercial real estate loans; residential construction loans; private banking, such as loan program, personal lines of credit and investment management and trust lines of credit.

In addition, it offers unsecured consumer installment loans and personal reserve accounts; automated bill payments, remote and mobile deposit capture, automated clearing house origination, wire transfer, lockbox, payee positive pay, and direct deposit; digital banking.

Further, the company provides real estate, escrow services, title, labor unions, nonprofits and property management services. Mechanics Bancorp was founded in 1905 and is headquartered in Walnut Creek, California.

Stock analysis

Mechanics Bank (MCHB) currently trades at $14.72, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.56, 15% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $13.58 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the $14.72 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $4.20, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $10.19 (bear) to $16.16 (bull), the price of $14.72 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Mechanics Bank reported revenue of $1.0B in FY2025 versus $364M in FY2021, a compound +29.7%/yr. Reported net income was $266M in FY2025, compounding +23.2%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $3.4B Mid · P/E ratio 12.0 · P/S ratio 4.61 · EPS (TTM) $1.22 · Dividend yield 8.9% · Net margin 37.9% · Return on equity 11.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.0% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 68 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −15%, MCHB screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $10.19 Fair Value $12.56 Bull $16.16
Price $14.72 · Downside -14.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income $11.36 $12.56 $16.16 76
DDM Multi-Stage $2.12 $3.78 $4.81 66
Gordon GGM $2.12 $4.62 $7.75 65
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $2.12 $4.62 $7.75 65
DDM Multi-Stage $2.12 $3.78 $4.81 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $11.76 $15.68 $19.60 63
P/B Multiple $8.61 $11.48 $14.35 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $4.10 $5.49 $8.20 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $11.36 $12.56 $16.16 76

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 48/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 35
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 83
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 65
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 15
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 33
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 86
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 47
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 58
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 42
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $30 and none bought.

  • SaleEdward Michael DownerDirector2 shares at $15.13$30Jun 15, 2026

Plus 5 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+74.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.6% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.5%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+25.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+16.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)8.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.28.5% vs 20.0%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.25% → 31%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

MCHB screens overvalued: fair value 15% below the price. Compare with China Merchants Bank Co →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (32 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Note from the team Oct 11, 2026
AI conclusion: Mechanics Bank lacks evidence of a durable edge amid thin data and rate competition as a regional bank, while its portfolio sale lowers risk yet leaves capital redeployment uncertain after mergers.
Main risk: Ineffective redeployment of capital freed by the auto loan portfolio sale after recent mergers would limit earnings growth and overall returns.
Mechanics Bank completed the sale of most of its runoff auto loan portfolio to Bank of America in mid-September. The move is meant to lower risk and free capital for better uses, yet the regional bank still faces the challenge of redeploying that capital effectively after recent mergers. Will the freed-up balance sheet drive stronger earnings growth, or will it mainly reduce volatility without lifting overall returns?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 998 stocks

Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 48 · Below median
Fair Value upside −14.7% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 11.0% · Above median
Return on assets 1.2% · Above median
Net margin (12 months) 37.9% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months) 46.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 35.7% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 8.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.05× · Lowest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 12.0× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.20× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 4.61× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 18.3× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 7.7× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)14 · sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 47
PAST (return on equity)44 · sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 53

HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Postal Savings Bank of China Co 601658 ¥5.53 ¥7.59 +37% vs MCHB
China Merchants Bank Co 600036 ¥42.88 ¥52.73 +23% vs MCHB
BNP Paribas SA BNP €91.93 €106.01 +15% vs MCHB
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.18 €4.49 −27% vs MCHB
State Bank of India SBIN ₹1,019 ₹736.65 −28% vs MCHB
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €76.80 €50.44 −34% vs MCHB
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $9.40 $5.90 −37% vs MCHB
DBS Group D05 69.72 SGD 40.39 SGD −42% vs MCHB
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹788.25 ₹406.39 −48% vs MCHB
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,571 ₹615.63 −61% vs MCHB

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Mechanics Bank: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mechanics Bank Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MCHB

Frequently asked questions

Is Mechanics Bank (MCHB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $12.56 versus a price of $14.72, about 15% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MCHB?
Our model-based fair value for Mechanics Bank is $12.56 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $14.72.
What is the quality score of MCHB?
Mechanics Bank has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mechanics Bank (MCHB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $12.56 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.19, optimistic scenario $16.16. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mechanics Bank stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $12.56, about 15% lower versus a price of $14.72 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $10.19, optimistic scenario $16.16. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mechanics Bank (MCHB)?
Mechanics Bank reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $742M (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Mechanics Bank pay a dividend?
Mechanics Bank currently shows a dividend yield of 8.90% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Mechanics Bank (MCHB) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Mechanics Bank pays a dividend of $1.31 per share a year, a dividend yield of 8.9%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 28, 2026. The payout ratio is 123% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 107%). Our assessment: Payout strained. The dividend exceeds reported earnings (though reported profit is often depressed by one-off charges), and free cash flow only just covers it (or coverage is unknown). Not an emergency, but little room for error.
What is the intrinsic value of Mechanics Bank (MCHB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mechanics Bank it is $12.56 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $14.72. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Mechanics Bank stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, MCHB trades above its calculated fair value: price $14.72, fair value $12.56, a gap of about −15% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MCHB?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($14.72); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($12.56). For Mechanics Bank the two are $2.16 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mechanics Bank worth?
The market values Mechanics Bank at about $3.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $14.72; our models calculate a fair value of $12.56 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MCHB?
Our models span a range for Mechanics Bank: cautious scenario $10.19, base $12.56, optimistic $16.16 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $14.72). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MCHB?
Mechanics Bank trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.0 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $12.56 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 13.9 (reported for FY2025: 12.2). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 7 of the years ex one-offs: 78.0. Other multiples: P/B 1.2, P/S 4.6, EV/EBITDA 7.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mechanics Bank (MCHB)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mechanics Bank (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 11.0%, debt of 0.05 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MCHB from its 52-week high?
Mechanics Bank trades at $14.72, about 13% below its 52-week high of $16.90 and 25% above the low of $11.81 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $12.56 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mechanics Bank?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mechanics Bank stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $14.72, calculated fair value $12.56 (−15%), Quality Score 48/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MCHB calculated?
We run Mechanics Bank through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $12.56 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Mechanics Bank itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mechanics Bank (MCHB)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $14.72. Our model-based fair value is $12.56, about 15% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mechanics Bank right now?
For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Mechanics Bank (MCHB) come from?
Earnings per share at Mechanics Bank grew +15.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.2 %, EBIT margin +7.3 %, tax rate +1.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Mechanics Bank

How large is the market capitalisation of Mechanics Bank (MCHB)?
The market capitalisation of Mechanics Bank is $3.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mechanics Bank (MCHB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mechanics Bank is 4.61 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mechanics Bank (MCHB)?
Earnings per share at Mechanics Bank are $1.22 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mechanics Bank (MCHB)?
The dividend yield of Mechanics Bank is 8.9% (payout 123%, on adjusted earnings, reported 107%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mechanics Bank (MCHB)?
The net margin of Mechanics Bank is 37.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mechanics Bank (MCHB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mechanics Bank is 11.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mechanics Bank (MCHB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mechanics Bank is 2.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mechanics Bank (MCHB)?
The operating margin of Mechanics Bank is 46.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mechanics Bank (MCHB)?
Revenue at Mechanics Bank is growing +35.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mechanics Bank (MCHB)?
Earnings per share at Mechanics Bank are growing +23.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Mechanics Bank (MCHB) generate?
The free cash flow of Mechanics Bank is $187M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Mechanics Bank (MCHB) hold?
Mechanics Bank holds more cash than debt, $751M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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