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Meituan (MPNGY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Meituan stock $15.33, price $19.04, that is 19.5% below the price, quality 38 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

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Consumer Cyclical US · ADR · Based in China

M Meituan logo Thin data Nov 10, 2026

Meituan

MPNGY · US
Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 19% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +25.3 %/yr in CNY)
Fair value $15.33 · Overvalued
Quality 38/100
Loss-making · -10.0% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (1/11)
Narrow moat 14/100
Downbeat coverage
Thin data
Estimate

Risks from the AI analysis

🚩Generative AI assistants could bypass its app🚩Alibaba and JD.com expanding in delivery🚩Antitrust scrutiny and overseas lawsuits
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$75.64 $15.83 Fair Value $15.33 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $15.83 – $75.64 · fair‑value band $11.50 – $19.16 · the $19.04 price screens above the $15.33 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 10, 2026.

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Company profile

Meituan operates as a technology driven retail company in the People's Republic of China, Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and internationally. It operates through Core Local Commerce and New Initiatives segments.

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The company offers daily goods and services, such as food delivery, in-store, hotel and travel booking, and other services and sales; bike sharing, e-moped sharing, power banks and micro-credit; and operates Kuailv and Xiaoxiang Supermarkets.

It also sells goods from B2B food distribution services; provides online marketing services to merchants; e-commerce; multimedia information technology; online retail platform; cloud computing; and merchant information advisory services.

The company was formerly known as Meituan Dianping and changed its name to Meituan in October 2020. Meituan was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

Stock analysis

Meituan (MPNGY) currently trades at $19.04, while our estimate is $15.33, 19% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: $11.50 (bear) to $19.16 (bull), the price of $19.04 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Meituan ADR reported revenue of 355B CNY in FY2025 versus 179B CNY in FY2021, a compound +18.6%/yr. Reported net income was −22.7B CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $63.9B Large · P/S ratio 0.17 · EPS (TTM) $−1.81 · Net margin −6.4% · Return on equity −21.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.9% (5-year average) · Operating margin −0.6% · Revenue (TTM) 383B CNY.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 14 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 23% fair-value upside, at −19%, MPNGY screens richer than that median.

Fair Value

Bear $11.50 Fair Value $15.33 Bull $19.16
Price $19.04 · Downside -19.5%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 38/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 27
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 15
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 4
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 59
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 67
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 70
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 17
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 12
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 77
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 44/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +56.5% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+56.5%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
2.7% (2019) → −8.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

MPNGY screens overvalued: fair value 19% below the price. Compare with Amazon.com, Inc →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Very negative
Recent news coverage is unusually downbeat.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Retail · 119 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 38 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −19.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −6.5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −10.0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −0.6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 14.4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.44× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper

P/B 2.82× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 1.11× · Pricier than median
PEG 28.45× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)7 · sector 40
FUTURE (revenue growth)72 · sector 58
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 8
HEALTH (low debt)78 · sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 63

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Internet Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
PDD Holdings PDD $79.40 $238.20 +200% vs MPNGY
Sea Limited SE $76.80 $129.32 +68% vs MPNGY
Prosus N.V PRX €37.49 €52.15 +39% vs MPNGY
JD.com, Inc 9618 HK$112.10 HK$150.10 +34% vs MPNGY
MercadoLibre, Inc MELI $1,490 $1,830 +23% vs MPNGY
Alibaba Group BABA $102.72 $120.46 +17% vs MPNGY
DoorDash, Inc DASH $178.25 $199.06 +12% vs MPNGY
Amazon.com, Inc AMZN $270.87 $140.05 −48% vs MPNGY
eBay Inc EBAY $123.52 $60.00 −51% vs MPNGY
Coupang, Inc CPNG $16.33 $4.98 −70% vs MPNGY

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Meituan ADR: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Meituan ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MPNGY

Frequently asked questions

Is Meituan (MPNGY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our estimate of fair value is $15.33 versus a price of $19.04, about 19% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MPNGY?
Our estimate for Meituan is $15.33 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $19.04.
What is the quality score of MPNGY?
Meituan has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Meituan (MPNGY)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of $15.33 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Cautious scenario $11.50, optimistic scenario $19.16. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the Meituan ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at $15.33, about 19% lower versus a price of $19.04 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $11.50, optimistic scenario $19.16. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Meituan (MPNGY)?
Meituan reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 383B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Meituan (MPNGY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Meituan it is $15.33 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of $19.04.
Is Meituan ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, MPNGY trades above its calculated fair value: price $19.04, fair value $15.33, a gap of about −19% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MPNGY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($19.04); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($15.33). For Meituan the two are $3.71 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Meituan ADR worth?
The market values Meituan at about $63.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is $19.04; our models calculate a fair value of $15.33 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MPNGY?
Our models span a range for Meituan: cautious scenario $11.50, base $15.33, optimistic $19.16 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price $19.04). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of MPNGY?
The PEG ratio of Meituan is 28.45 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 10, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Meituan (MPNGY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Meituan (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity −21.8%, debt of 0.44 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MPNGY from its 52-week high?
Meituan trades at $19.04, about 31% below its 52-week high of $27.46 and 14% above the low of $16.67 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $15.33 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Meituan ADR?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Amazon.com, Inc, Alibaba Group, PDD Holdings, Prosus N.V, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Meituan ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price $19.04, calculated fair value $15.33 (−19%), Quality Score 38/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. Meituan itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Meituan (MPNGY)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was $19.04. Our estimate is $15.33, about 19% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Meituan ADR right now?
Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Meituan

How large is the market capitalisation of Meituan (MPNGY)?
The market capitalisation of Meituan is $63.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Meituan (MPNGY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Meituan is 0.17 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Meituan (MPNGY)?
Earnings per share at Meituan are $−1.81. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Meituan (MPNGY)?
The net margin of Meituan is −6.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Meituan (MPNGY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Meituan is −21.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Meituan (MPNGY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Meituan is −0.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Meituan (MPNGY)?
The operating margin of Meituan is −0.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Meituan (MPNGY)?
Revenue at Meituan is growing +14.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Meituan (MPNGY)?
Earnings per share at Meituan are growing −96.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Meituan (MPNGY) generate?
The free cash flow of Meituan is −27.1B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Meituan (MPNGY) hold?
Meituan holds more cash than debt, 41.8B CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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