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Meituan (MPNGY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Meituan is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
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Consumer Cyclical · US · ADR · ISIN US58533E1038

M Meituan logo Thin data Sep 18, 2026

Meituan

MPNGY · US

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value $56.67 · Strongly undervalued (+200%)
!Quality 40/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +25.3 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -10.9% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (3/11)
!Narrow moat 12/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on future: 28 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$85.24 $15.83 Fair Value $56.67 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $15.83 – $85.24 · fair‑value band $37.40 – $56.67 · the $18.89 price screens below the $56.67 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.

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Company profile

Meituan operates as a technology driven retail company in the People's Republic of China, Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and internationally. It operates through Core Local Commerce and New Initiatives segments.

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Meituan operates as a technology driven retail company in the People's Republic of China, Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and internationally. It operates through Core Local Commerce and New Initiatives segments. The company offers daily goods and services, such as food delivery, in-store, hotel and travel booking, and other services and sales; bike sharing, e-moped sharing, power banks and micro-credit; and operates Kuailv and Xiaoxiang Supermarkets. It also sells goods from B2B food distribution services; provides online marketing services to merchants; e-commerce; multimedia information technology; online retail platform; cloud computing; and merchant information advisory services. The company was formerly known as Meituan Dianping and changed its name to Meituan in October 2020. Meituan was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

Stock analysis

Meituan ADR (MPNGY) currently trades at $18.89, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $56.67, implying the stock looks roughly 66.7% undervalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 3 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $37.40 (bear) to $56.67 (bull), the price of $18.89 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Meituan ADR reported revenue of 355B CNY in FY2025 versus 179B CNY in FY2021, a compound +18.6%/yr. Reported net income was −22.7B CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $57.4B · P/S ratio 0.15 · EPS (TTM) $−1.16 · Net margin −6.4% · Return on equity −24.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.9% · Operating margin −7.5% · Revenue (TTM) $370B.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at 200%, MPNGY screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $37.40 Fair Value $56.67 Bull $56.67
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Gordon GGM $23.34 $70.03 $93.37 67
DDM Multi-Stage $23.34 $46.69 $70.03 65
NCAV (Graham) $63,050 $84,503 $126,124 54
All 3 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $23.34 $70.03 $93.37 67
DDM Multi-Stage $23.34 $46.69 $70.03 65
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $63,050 $84,503 $126,124 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 40/100

Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37

Profitability 27
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 15
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 4
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 59
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 71
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 34
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 3
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 94
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 44/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.3%
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+56.5%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
2.7% (2019) → −8.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Compare Meituan ADR with another stock

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Retail · 108 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +200% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −9% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −11% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.44× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.37× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.15× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 28.45× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 46
FUTURE (revenue growth)28 · sector 53
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 8
HEALTH (low debt)78 · sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 37

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Internet Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Amazon.com, Inc AMZN $248.42 $127.67 −49%
Alibaba Group 89988 HK$92.00 HK$45.67 −50%
PDD Holdings PDD $78.08 $298.09 +282%
MercadoLibre, Inc MELI $1,829 $2,012 +10%
DoorDash, Inc DASH $198.26 $203.66 +3%
Sea Limited SE $103.50 $129.32 +25%
JD.com, Inc 89618 ¥90.85 ¥70.41 −22%
eBay Inc EBAY $108.03 $118.83 +10%
Coupang, Inc CPNG $14.40 $4.06 −72%
Delivery Hero SE DHER €36.61 €12.71 −65%

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Meituan ADR · Fair Value
$56.67 +67%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Meituan ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MPNGY

Frequently asked questions

Is Meituan (MPNGY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $56.67 versus a price of $18.89, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MPNGY?
Our model-based fair value for Meituan ADR is $56.67 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $18.89.
What is the quality score of MPNGY?
Meituan ADR has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Meituan (MPNGY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $56.67 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario $37.40, optimistic scenario $56.67. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Meituan ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $56.67, about +200% upside versus a price of $18.89 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $37.40, optimistic scenario $56.67. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Meituan (MPNGY)?
Meituan ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $370B (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Meituan (MPNGY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Meituan ADR it is $56.67 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of $18.89. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Meituan ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, MPNGY trades below its calculated fair value: price $18.89, fair value $56.67, a gap of about +200% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MPNGY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($18.89); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($56.67). For Meituan ADR the two are $37.78 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Meituan ADR worth?
The market values Meituan ADR at about $57.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is $18.89; our models calculate a fair value of $56.67 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MPNGY?
Our models span a range for Meituan ADR: cautious scenario $37.40, base $56.67, optimistic $56.67 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price $18.89). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of MPNGY?
The PEG ratio of Meituan ADR is 28.45 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Meituan (MPNGY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Meituan ADR (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity −24.1%, debt of 0.44 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MPNGY from its 52-week high?
Meituan ADR trades at $18.89, about 46% below its 52-week high of $34.77 and 5% above the low of $18.07 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $56.67 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Meituan ADR?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Amazon.com, Inc, Alibaba Group, PDD Holdings, MercadoLibre, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Meituan ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price $18.89, calculated fair value $56.67 (+200%), Quality Score 40/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MPNGY calculated?
We run Meituan ADR through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $56.67, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Meituan ADR currently trades 200 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Meituan (MPNGY)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was $18.89. Our model-based fair value is $56.67, about +200% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Meituan ADR right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (40/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($37.40). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Meituan ADR

How large is the market capitalisation of Meituan (MPNGY)?
The market capitalisation of Meituan ADR is $57.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Meituan (MPNGY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Meituan ADR is 0.15 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Meituan (MPNGY)?
Earnings per share at Meituan ADR are $−1.16. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Meituan (MPNGY)?
The net margin of Meituan ADR is −6.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Meituan (MPNGY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Meituan ADR is −24.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Meituan (MPNGY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Meituan ADR is −0.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Meituan (MPNGY)?
The operating margin of Meituan ADR is −7.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Meituan (MPNGY)?
Revenue at Meituan ADR is growing +5.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Meituan (MPNGY)?
Earnings per share at Meituan ADR are growing −96.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Meituan (MPNGY) generate?
The free cash flow of Meituan ADR is −$27.1B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Meituan (MPNGY) hold?
Meituan ADR holds more cash than debt, $41.8B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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