Meituan (MPNGY) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $56.1B

Below-average quality, screening 198% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

• The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (38/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
• The price is below even our cautious bear case ($46.28). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
• The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 7, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $15.83 – $85.24 · fair‑value band $46.28 – $70.12 · the $23.53 price screens below the $70.12 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 7, 2026.

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Analysis

Meituan (MPNGY) currently trades at $23.53, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $70.12, implying the stock looks roughly 198.0% undervalued today. We read business quality at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Meituan generated revenue of $370B at a net margin of -10.9%. Revenue grew 5.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -24.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $41.8B. Fundamentals as of Aug 7, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $46.28 (bear case) to $70.12 (bull case); at $23.53, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -49% fair-value upside, at 198%, MPNGY screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($84,611) versus Dividend Discount ($46.75). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Meituan operates as a technology driven retail company in the People's Republic of China, Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and internationally. It operates through Core Local Commerce and New Initiatives segments.

Full company description

Meituan operates as a technology driven retail company in the People's Republic of China, Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and internationally. It operates through Core Local Commerce and New Initiatives segments. The company offers daily goods and services, such as food delivery, in-store, hotel and travel booking, and other services and sales; bike sharing, e-moped sharing, power banks and micro-credit; and operates Kuailv and Xiaoxiang Supermarkets. It also sells goods from B2B food distribution services; provides online marketing services to merchants; e-commerce; multimedia information technology; online retail platform; cloud computing; and merchant information advisory services. The company was formerly known as Meituan Dianping and changed its name to Meituan in October 2020. Meituan was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Meituan reported revenue of $355B in FY2025 versus $179B in FY2021, a compound +18.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$22.7B in FY2025.

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Peer Group

Internet Retail · 108 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.