MSCI Inc (MSCI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of MSCI Inc stock $261, price $656, that is 60.2% below the price, quality 79 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 10 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Keep an eye on it?Free in your watchlist: 5 stocks without an account, 10 with oneYes, for free
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $359.25 – $674.30 · fair‑value band $161.24 – $421.32 · the $655.91 price screens above the $261.33 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
Follow MSCI in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether MSCI is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
MSCI Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides research-based data, analytics, and indexes, supported by advanced technology worldwide.
Show moreShow less
The Index segment provides indexes for use in various areas of the investment process, including indexed financial products, such as ETFs, mutual funds, annuities, futures, options, structured products, and over-the-counter derivatives; performance benchmarking; portfolio construction and rebalancing; and asset allocation, as well as licenses GICS and GICS Direct.
The Analytics segment offers risk management, performance attribution and portfolio management content, application, an integrated view of risk and return service, and an analysis of market, credit, liquidity, counterparty, and climate risk across asset classes; managed services, including consolidation of client portfolio data, review and reconciliation of input data and results, and customized reporting; and HedgePlatform to measure, evaluate, and monitor the risk of hedge fund investments.
The Sustainability and Climate segment provides products and services that help institutional investors understand how ESG impacts the long-term risk and return of their portfolio and individual security-level investments; and data, ratings, research, and tools to assist investors navigate increasing regulation.
The All Other " Private Assets segment comprises private credit, real estate and infrastructure data, benchmarks, return-analytics, climate assessments and market insights; business intelligence to real estate owners, managers, developers, and brokers; and offers investment decision support tools for private capital.
The Private Capital Solutions segment offers tools to help private asset investors across mission-critical workflows, such as sourcing terms and conditions, evaluating operating performance, managing risk and other activities supporting private capital investment.
MSCI Inc. was incorporated in 1998 and is based in New York, New York.
Stock analysis
MSCI Inc (MSCI) currently trades at $655.91, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $261.33, 60% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $261.33 per share, and 0 of the 10 models we run sit above the $655.91 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $112.01, and 10 of the 10 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $161.24 (bear) to $421.32 (bull), the price of $655.91 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 79/100 (high quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
MSCI Inc reported revenue of $3.1B in FY2025 versus $2.0B in FY2021, a compound +11.3%/yr. Reported net income was $1.2B in FY2025, compounding +13.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $47.9B Large · P/E ratio 33.8 · P/S ratio 14.0 · EPS (TTM) $19.40 · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin 40.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 25.4% · Operating margin 56.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 94 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −30% fair-value upside, at −60%, MSCI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$161.24Fair Value $261.33Bull$421.32
Price $655.91 · Downside -60.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($14.95 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors bought shares worth $3.2M, most recently on Sep 2, 2026. Over the same period, 2 people sold shares worth $2.0M. Buying cluster
SaleRobert J. GutowskiGeneral Counsel2× since Nov 24, 2025: 3,005 shares, avg. $610.11$1.8MOct 22, 2026
SaleAndrew C. WiechmannChief Financial Officer4× since Dec 11, 2025: 1,800 shares, avg. $571.14$1.0MOct 12, 202610b5-1 plan
BuyRajat TanejaDirector1,786 shares at $560.00$1.0MSep 2, 2026
BuyHenry A FernandezChairman and CEO, Director3× since Dec 5, 2025: 23,300 shares, avg. $536.98$12.5MMay 15, 2026
SaleAlvise J. MunariChief Product Officer10,000 shares at $592.04$5.9MApr 24, 2026
BuyRobert G. AsheDirector3,681 shares at $543.21$2.0MFeb 18, 2026
Plus 7 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.93/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.3% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.4%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+17.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+16.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.16.9% vs 20.4%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.52% → 55%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
AI conclusion: Data and index advantages may support pricing power while high debt and negative equity create leverage risks for the business.
Main risk: Generative AI tools might make ESG data collection and analysis cheaper and faster, eroding demand for MSCI's paid ESG ratings and analytics subscriptions and pressuring margins in that segment.
Bull case: MSCI could integrate AI into its platforms like SignalLab to enhance data governance and offer differentiated, trusted signals that clients prefer over fragmented or unvalidated alternatives.
Bear case: If AI commoditises ESG data and low-cost rivals gain share in indices, MSCI's core licensing and analytics revenues could stagnate or decline as clients shift to cheaper or in-house solutions.
MSCI just launched SignalLab, a unified platform with over 600 validated signals on risk premia, micro-industries and crowding, all drawn from its long factor research and Barra models. Teams gain one governed environment instead of stitching signals from mismatched providers. Does this mainly lock in current users through better integration, or does it open meaningful new data and analytics revenue?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Financial Data & Stock Exchanges · 48 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score79 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−60.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets21.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)40.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)56.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)12.4% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Financial Data & Stock Exchanges median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)33.8× · Priciest 25%
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)13.97× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)31.0× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA26.6× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.89× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)62· sector 72
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 82
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)5· sector 33
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MSCI Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MSCI
Frequently asked questions
Is MSCI Inc (MSCI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $261.33 versus a price of $655.91, about 60% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MSCI?
Our model-based fair value for MSCI Inc is $261.33 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $655.91.
What is the quality score of MSCI?
MSCI Inc has a Quality Score of 79/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MSCI Inc (MSCI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $261.33 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario $161.24, optimistic scenario $421.32. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MSCI Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $261.33, about 60% lower versus a price of $655.91 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $161.24, optimistic scenario $421.32. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MSCI Inc (MSCI)?
MSCI Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.4B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does MSCI Inc pay a dividend?
MSCI Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 0.27% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of MSCI Inc (MSCI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MSCI Inc it is $261.33 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $655.91. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is MSCI Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, MSCI trades above its calculated fair value: price $655.91, fair value $261.33, a gap of about −60% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MSCI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($655.91); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($261.33). For MSCI Inc the two are $394.58 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MSCI Inc worth?
The market values MSCI Inc at about $47.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $655.91; our models calculate a fair value of $261.33 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MSCI?
Our models span a range for MSCI Inc: cautious scenario $161.24, base $261.33, optimistic $421.32 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $655.91). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MSCI?
MSCI Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 33.8 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $261.33 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2018, FY2023 ex one-offs: 41.0. Other multiples: PEG 1.9, P/S 14.0, EV/EBITDA 26.6.
What is the PEG ratio of MSCI?
The PEG ratio of MSCI Inc is 1.89 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of MSCI Inc (MSCI)?
Balance-sheet figures for MSCI Inc (as of Nov 5, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 79/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MSCI from its 52-week high?
MSCI Inc trades at $655.91, about 3% below its 52-week high of $674.30 and 30% above the low of $506.19 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $261.33 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MSCI Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value S&P Global Inc, CME Group, Intercontinental Exchange, Inc, Moody's Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MSCI Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $655.91, calculated fair value $261.33 (−60%), Quality Score 79/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MSCI calculated?
We run MSCI Inc through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $261.33, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. MSCI Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MSCI Inc (MSCI)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $655.91. Our model-based fair value is $261.33, about 60% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MSCI Inc right now?
A high-quality business (quality 79/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($421.32). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($161.24 to $421.32). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of MSCI Inc (MSCI) come from?
Earnings per share at MSCI Inc grew +22.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +15.4 %, EBIT margin +4.0 %, tax rate +2.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of MSCI Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of MSCI Inc (MSCI)?
The market capitalisation of MSCI Inc is $47.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of MSCI Inc (MSCI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MSCI Inc is 14.0 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of MSCI Inc (MSCI)?
Earnings per share at MSCI Inc are $19.40 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 33.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of MSCI Inc (MSCI)?
The dividend yield of MSCI Inc is 0.3% (payout 9.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of MSCI Inc (MSCI)?
The net margin of MSCI Inc is 40.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MSCI Inc (MSCI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MSCI Inc is 25.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MSCI Inc (MSCI)?
The operating margin of MSCI Inc is 56.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MSCI Inc (MSCI)?
Revenue at MSCI Inc is growing +12.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at MSCI Inc (MSCI)?
Earnings per share at MSCI Inc are growing +14.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does MSCI Inc (MSCI) generate?
The free cash flow of MSCI Inc is $1.5B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does MSCI Inc (MSCI) carry?
The net debt of MSCI Inc is $5.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch MSCI Inc in the live analysis
One click puts MSCI Inc on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Some data
Nov 5, 2026
