Matador Resources Company (MTDR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Matador Resources Company stock $32.00, price $50.41, that is 36.5% below the price, quality 45 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $23.52 – $67.76 · fair‑value band $19.39 – $63.84 · the $50.41 price screens above the $32.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Matador Resources Company, an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas resources in the United States. It operates through two segments, Exploration and Production; and Midstream.
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The company primarily holds interests in the Wolfcamp and Bone Spring plays in the Delaware Basin in Southeast New Mexico and West Texas. It also operates the Haynesville shale and Cotton Valley plays in Northwest Louisiana.
In addition, the company conducts midstream operations in support of its exploration, development, and production operations.
Further, it provides natural gas processing and oil transportation services; and oil, natural gas, and produced water gathering services, as well as produced water disposal services to third parties, as well as sells natural gas to unaffiliated independent marketing companies and unaffiliated midstream companies.
The company was formerly known as Matador Holdco, Inc. and changed its name to Matador Resources Company in August 2011. Matador Resources Company was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
Stock analysis
Matador Resources Company (MTDR) currently trades at $50.41, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $32.00, 37% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $195.53 per share, and 18 of the 25 models we run sit above the $50.41 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $21.41, and 7 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $19.39 (bear) to $63.84 (bull), the price of $50.41 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Matador Resources Company reported revenue of $3.7B in FY2025 versus $1.7B in FY2021, a compound +21.8%/yr. Reported net income was $759M in FY2025, compounding +6.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $6.3B Mid · P/E ratio 8.7 · P/S ratio 1.45 · EPS (TTM) $5.79 · Dividend yield 3.0% · Net margin 16.7% · Return on equity 13.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.8% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 64 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −37%, MTDR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$19.39Fair Value $32.00Bull$63.84
Price $50.41 · Downside -36.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.67 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income$43.17$53.36$79.2275
EPV$47.44$59.14$69.2274
FCF DCF$26.93$55.85$145.9071
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$26.93$55.85$145.9071
5Y Revenue Exit$8.17$30.93$78.3463
5Y EBITDA Exit$52.44$120.42$253.9869
5Y P/E Exit$36.06$116.23$225.8965
10Y Revenue Exit$13.29$54.50$78.6464
10Y EBITDA Exit$45.90$147.50$328.6262
10Y P/E Exit$34.23$113.10$243.6458
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$41.72$290.94$408.3063
Lynch FV$126.48$180.68$234.8961
PEG = 1.0$126.48$180.68$234.8957
EPV$47.44$59.14$69.2274
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$11.54$22.95$34.6667
DDM Multi-Stage$11.54$19.86$24.2367
Multiples
P/E Multiple$64.42$85.89$107.3763
P/S Multiple$26.59$35.46$44.3258
P/B Multiple$53.43$71.24$89.0555
EV/EBIT$43.90$67.88$91.8565
EV/EBITDA$58.60$87.47$116.3566
EV/Revenuen/a$7.43$18.0750
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$22.86$30.63$45.7254
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$23.65$63.76$142.1271
Rev-Margin DCF$9.99$39.29$97.3464
Economic Profit
Residual Income$43.17$53.36$79.2275
ROIC Compounder$49.67$78.21$105.0771
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$136.87$195.53$254.1867
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical peak year.
In the last 6 months, 8 officers or directors bought shares worth $2.1M, most recently on Nov 5, 2026. Buying cluster
BuyWilliam Thomas ElsenerEVP, Reservoir Engineering2× since Aug 10, 2026: 1,750 shares, avg. $51.22$89,631Nov 5, 2026
BuyBryan A ErmanPresident915 shares at $50.79$46,473Nov 5, 2026
BuyChristopher P CalvertEVP and CFO3× since May 29, 2026: 6,000 shares, avg. $54.43$326,600Nov 5, 2026
BuyBenjamin T ColodneySVP & Chief Accounting Officer2× since May 29, 2026: 750 shares, avg. $52.15$39,113Nov 5, 2026
BuyJoseph Wm ForanChairman and CEO, Director9× since Feb 27, 2026: 29,419 shares, avg. $52.31$1.5MAug 26, 2026
BuyRobert Gaines BatyDirector500 shares at $51.44$25,720Jun 15, 2026
BuyGlenn W StetsonEVP and COO2× since May 28, 2026: 1,000 shares, avg. $53.68$53,675Jun 9, 2026
BuyMonika U EhrmanDirector2× since Mar 6, 2026: 629 shares, avg. $55.71$35,041Jun 8, 2026
Plus 11 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+33.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +27.7% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+38.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+19.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+16.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.16.6% vs 14.6%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−61% → 33%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+23.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+12.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +20.2% a year for the price and +10.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Matador builds low-cost drilling inventory through targeted acquisitions yet remains constrained by limited pricing power typical of the commodity E&P sector.
Main risk: Competitors like EOG Resources and Devon Energy with greater resources and superior technology could outbid Matador for properties or operate more efficiently in the Delaware Basin, limiting expansion of its drilling inventory or margins.
Bull case: Matador could leverage its recent acreage additions and midstream assets to achieve scale efficiencies that allow it to compete more effectively with larger rivals while navigating regulations through proactive compliance and partnerships.
Bear case: If larger rivals secure prime inventory and regulatory hurdles intensify on federal lands, Matador might face constrained growth, higher costs and reduced production volumes in its core basin over the coming years.
Matador just closed acquisitions adding over 30,000 net acres in the core Delaware Basin and Woodford, including strong early production that beat underwriting estimates. Its brick-by-brick buying builds low-cost drilling inventory for future growth, yet the company still plans to repay hundreds of millions in debt from cash flows. Will the new scale deliver lasting efficiencies or strain execution in a volatile oil market?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 239 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Below median
Fair Value upside−36.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)13.2% · Above median
Return on assets6.4% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)16.7% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)25.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)63.1% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)3.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.60× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Matador Resources Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MTDR
Frequently asked questions
Is Matador Resources Company (MTDR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $32.00 versus a price of $50.41, about 37% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MTDR?
Our model-based fair value for Matador Resources Company is $32.00 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $50.41.
What is the quality score of MTDR?
Matador Resources Company has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Matador Resources Company (MTDR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $32.00 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $19.39, optimistic scenario $63.84. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Matador Resources Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $32.00, about 37% lower versus a price of $50.41 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $19.39, optimistic scenario $63.84. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Matador Resources Company (MTDR)?
Matador Resources Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Matador Resources Company pay a dividend?
Matador Resources Company currently shows a dividend yield of 2.98% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Matador Resources Company (MTDR) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Matador Resources Company pays a dividend of $1.50 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.0%. The next ex-dividend date is Nov 10, 2026, with payment on Dec 4, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2021. The payout ratio is 27.5% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 25.9%). Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.30 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Matador Resources Company (MTDR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Matador Resources Company would have to grow free cash flow by +23.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +33.7 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MTDR use?
Our models discount Matador Resources Company at 9.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.92, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Matador Resources Company that is +23.0 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Matador Resources Company (MTDR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Matador Resources Company grew +33.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +23.0 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Matador Resources Company (MTDR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Matador Resources Company (+23.0 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Matador Resources Company (MTDR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.86 %: that much free cash flow Matador Resources Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Matador Resources Company (MTDR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Matador Resources Company it is $32.00 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $50.41. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Matador Resources Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, MTDR trades above its calculated fair value: price $50.41, fair value $32.00, a gap of about −37% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MTDR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($50.41); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($32.00). For Matador Resources Company the two are $18.41 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Matador Resources Company worth?
The market values Matador Resources Company at about $6.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $50.41; our models calculate a fair value of $32.00 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MTDR?
Our models span a range for Matador Resources Company: cautious scenario $19.39, base $32.00, optimistic $63.84 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $50.41). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MTDR?
Matador Resources Company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.7 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $32.00 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 8.8 (reported for FY2025: 8.3). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 7.7. Other multiples: PEG 0.4, P/B 1.1, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 3.9.
What is the PEG ratio of MTDR?
The PEG ratio of Matador Resources Company is 0.36 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Matador Resources Company (MTDR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Matador Resources Company (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 13.2%, debt of 0.60 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MTDR from its 52-week high?
Matador Resources Company trades at $50.41, about 22% below its 52-week high of $64.51 and 37% above the low of $36.76 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $32.00 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Matador Resources Company?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Matador Resources Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $50.41, calculated fair value $32.00 (−37%), Quality Score 45/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MTDR calculated?
We run Matador Resources Company through 25 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $32.00 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Matador Resources Company itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Matador Resources Company (MTDR)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $50.41. Our model-based fair value is $32.00, about 37% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Matador Resources Company right now?
Weak quality (45/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($19.39 to $63.84). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of Matador Resources Company
How large is the market capitalisation of Matador Resources Company (MTDR)?
The market capitalisation of Matador Resources Company is $6.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Matador Resources Company (MTDR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Matador Resources Company is 1.45 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Matador Resources Company (MTDR)?
Earnings per share at Matador Resources Company are $5.79 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Matador Resources Company (MTDR)?
The dividend yield of Matador Resources Company is 3.0% (payout 27.5%, on adjusted earnings, reported 25.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Matador Resources Company (MTDR)?
The net margin of Matador Resources Company is 16.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Matador Resources Company (MTDR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Matador Resources Company is 13.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Matador Resources Company (MTDR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Matador Resources Company is 17.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Matador Resources Company (MTDR)?
The operating margin of Matador Resources Company is 25.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Matador Resources Company (MTDR)?
Revenue at Matador Resources Company is growing +63.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Matador Resources Company (MTDR)?
Earnings per share at Matador Resources Company are growing −2.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Matador Resources Company (MTDR) carry?
The net debt of Matador Resources Company is $3.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 14.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 6, 2026