Matador Resources Company (MTDR) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $6.4B
Matador Resources Company
MTDR · US
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 15, 2026, revised from $82.02 to $36.84 (−55.1%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −7.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 25% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide ($23.33 to $66.31). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $23.70 – $68.28 · fair‑value band $23.33 – $66.31 · the $49.06 price screens above the $36.84 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
Matador Resources Company (MTDR) currently trades at $49.06, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $36.84, implying the stock looks roughly 24.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Matador Resources Company generated revenue of $3.6B at a net margin of 13.5%. Revenue declined 6.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.1%. Net debt stands at $3.5B. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $23.33 (bear case) to $66.31 (bull case); at $49.06, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -26% fair-value upside, at -25%, MTDR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($194.85) versus Dividend Discount ($19.86). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Matador Resources Company, an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas resources in the United States. It operates through two segments, Exploration and Production; and Midstream.
Full company description
Matador Resources Company, an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas resources in the United States. It operates through two segments, Exploration and Production; and Midstream. The company primarily holds interests in the Wolfcamp and Bone Spring plays in the Delaware Basin in Southeast New Mexico and West Texas. It also operates the Haynesville shale and Cotton Valley plays in Northwest Louisiana. In addition, the company conducts midstream operations in support of its exploration, development, and production operations. Further, it provides natural gas processing and oil transportation services; and oil, natural gas, and produced water gathering services, as well as produced water disposal services to third parties, as well as sells natural gas to unaffiliated independent marketing companies and unaffiliated midstream companies. The company was formerly known as Matador Holdco, Inc. and changed its name to Matador Resources Company in August 2011. Matador Resources Company was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Matador Resources Company reported revenue of $3.7B in FY2025 versus $1.7B in FY2021, a compound +21.8%/yr. Reported net income was $759M in FY2025, compounding +6.7%/yr from FY2021.
MTDR screens 25% overvalued. Compare with CNOOC Limited →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Here's What Key Metrics Tell Us About Matador (MTDR) Q2 Earnings
- Matador Resources (MTDR) Surpasses Q2 Earnings and Revenue Estimates
- Matador Resources (NYSE:MTDR) Delivers Impressive Q2 CY2026
- Matador Resources Co.’s (MTDR) Disciplined Capital Allocation and Growth Strategy Support Long Term Shareholder Value
Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 315 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 66/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥28.97 | ¥32.55 | +12% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $109.04 | $91.79 | -16% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | $42.86 | $31.54 | -26% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $139.89 | $130.19 | -7% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $54.86 | $30.68 | -44% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $183.39 | $106.12 | -42% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $43.83 | $27.06 | -38% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$30.46 | A$20.71 | -32% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $48.85 | $42.85 | -12% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $415.70 | $79.20 | -81% |
Compare Matador Resources Company with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Energy stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is Matador Resources Company (MTDR) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of MTDR?
What is the quality score of MTDR?
What is the revenue of Matador Resources Company (MTDR)?
What is the net profit margin of MTDR?
Does Matador Resources Company pay a dividend?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track Matador Resources Company and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.