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National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of National Bank Holdings Corporation stock $25.95, price $36.91, that is 29.7% below the price, quality 55 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services US

NB National Bank Holdings Corporation logo Broad data Nov 5, 2026

National Bank Holdings Corporation

NBHC · US
Solid, but expensive

Our calculation puts a fair price 30% below what the stock costs today.

Solidly profitable · 12.8% net margin (TTM)
Upbeat coverage
Broad data
Quality 55/100
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +10.5 %/yr in USD)
3.5% dividend yield · Payout strained
Insiders sold $190,012 (6M)
Revenue last quarter 22% below a year ago.
Fair value $25.95 · Overvalued (−29.7%)
Trails peers (4/15)
Narrow moat 43/100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$48.24 $24.84 Fair Value $25.95 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $24.84 – $48.24 · fair‑value band $24.28 – $28.58 · the $36.91 price screens above the $25.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.

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Company profile

National Bank Holdings Corporation operates as the bank holding company for NBH Bank that provides various banking products and financial services to commercial, business, and consumer clients in the United States.

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It offers deposit products, including checking, savings, money market, health savings, and other deposit accounts, including fixed-rate and fixed maturity time deposits.

The company also provides commercial and industrial loans and leases, such as working capital loans, equipment loans, lender finance loans, food and agriculture loans, government and non-profit loans, owner occupied commercial real estate loans, and other commercial loans and leases; non-owner occupied commercial real estate loans consisting of loans on commercial properties, such as hospitality, office buildings, warehouse/distribution buildings, multi-family, and retail buildings; small business administration loans to support small businesses and entrepreneurs; term loans, line of credits, and real estate secured loans; residential real estate loans; and consumer loans.

In addition, it offers treasury management solutions comprising online and mobile banking, commercial credit card, wire transfer, automated clearing house, electronic bill payment, lock box, remote deposit capture, merchant processing, cash vault, controlled disbursements, and fraud prevention services, as well as positive pay and other auxiliary services, including account reconciliation, collections, repurchase accounts, zero balance accounts, and sweep accounts.

The company operates through a network of banking centers located in Colorado, the greater Kansas City region, Texas, Utah, Wyoming, New Mexico and Idaho.

It also operates ATMs. The company was formerly known as NBH Holdings Corp. and changed its name to National Bank Holdings Corporation in March 2012. The company was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Greenwood Village, Colorado.

Stock analysis

National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC) currently trades at $36.91, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $25.95, 30% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $32.38 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $36.91 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $14.37, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $24.28 (bear) to $28.58 (bull), the price of $36.91 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

National Bank Holdings Corporation reported revenue of $584M in FY2025 versus $306M in FY2021, a compound +17.5%/yr. Reported net income was $110M in FY2025, compounding +4.0%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $1.6B Small · P/E ratio 29.3 · P/S ratio 3.63 · EPS (TTM) $1.26 · Dividend yield 3.5% · Net margin 12.8% · Return on equity 3.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.4% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −30%, NBHC screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $24.28 Fair Value $25.95 Bull $28.58
Price $36.91 · Downside -29.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income $24.71 $25.95 $28.58 76
Gordon GGM $8.24 $15.07 $21.01 67
DDM Multi-Stage $8.24 $13.66 $16.07 67
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $8.24 $15.07 $21.01 67
DDM Multi-Stage $8.24 $13.66 $16.07 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $24.12 $32.17 $40.21 63
P/B Multiple $24.44 $32.58 $40.73 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $11.64 $15.59 $23.27 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $24.71 $25.95 $28.58 76

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 55/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 30
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 47
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 82
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 14
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 79
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 79
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 33
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 29
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 81
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors sold shares worth $190,012 and none bought.

  • SaleArt ZeileDirector4,000 shares at $37.43$149,720Oct 30, 2026
  • SaleMaria F SpringDirector2× since Nov 11, 2025: 7,177 shares, avg. $37.77$271,080May 20, 2026
  • BuyJohn SteinmetzExec Mng Dir of Strategic Init24,200 shares at $41.41$1.0MFeb 11, 2026

Plus 11 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 81/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.0% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+55.9%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+2.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−1.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.0.1% vs 28.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.31% → 24%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

NBHC screens overvalued: fair value 30% below the price. Compare with China Merchants Bank Co →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (93 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 998 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 55 · Below median
Fair Value upside −29.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 3.6% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 1.1% · Above median
Net margin (12 months) 12.8% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −22.3% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 3.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.04× · Lowest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 29.3× · Priciest 25%
P/B 1.18× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 3.63× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 12.4× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 7.8× · Cheaper than median
PEG 1.57× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 47
PAST (return on equity)15 · sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)69 · sector 53

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Postal Savings Bank of China Co 601658 ¥5.53 ¥7.59 +37% vs NBHC
China Merchants Bank Co 600036 ¥42.88 ¥52.73 +23% vs NBHC
BNP Paribas SA BNP €91.93 €106.01 +15% vs NBHC
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.18 €4.49 −27% vs NBHC
State Bank of India SBIN ₹1,019 ₹736.65 −28% vs NBHC
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €76.80 €50.44 −34% vs NBHC
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $9.40 $5.90 −37% vs NBHC
DBS Group D05 69.72 SGD 40.39 SGD −42% vs NBHC
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹788.25 ₹406.39 −48% vs NBHC
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,571 ₹615.63 −61% vs NBHC

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National Bank Holdings Corporation: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "National Bank Holdings Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NBHC

Frequently asked questions

Is National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $25.95 versus a price of $36.91, about 30% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NBHC?
Our model-based fair value for National Bank Holdings Corporation is $25.95 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $36.91.
What is the quality score of NBHC?
National Bank Holdings Corporation has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $25.95 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $24.28, optimistic scenario $28.58. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the National Bank Holdings Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $25.95, about 30% lower versus a price of $36.91 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $24.28, optimistic scenario $28.58. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC)?
National Bank Holdings Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $452M (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does National Bank Holdings Corporation pay a dividend?
National Bank Holdings Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 3.47% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
How much is the dividend of National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC) and when is the ex-dividend date?
National Bank Holdings Corporation pays a dividend of $1.28 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.5%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 28, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2012. The payout ratio is 102% of earnings. Our assessment: Payout strained. The dividend exceeds reported earnings (though reported profit is often depressed by one-off charges), and free cash flow only just covers it (or coverage is unknown). Not an emergency, but little room for error.
What is the intrinsic value of National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For National Bank Holdings Corporation it is $25.95 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $36.91. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is National Bank Holdings Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, NBHC trades above its calculated fair value: price $36.91, fair value $25.95, a gap of about −30% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NBHC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($36.91); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($25.95). For National Bank Holdings Corporation the two are $10.96 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is National Bank Holdings Corporation worth?
The market values National Bank Holdings Corporation at about $1.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $36.91; our models calculate a fair value of $25.95 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NBHC?
Our models span a range for National Bank Holdings Corporation: cautious scenario $24.28, base $25.95, optimistic $28.58 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $36.91). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NBHC?
National Bank Holdings Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 29.3 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $25.95 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 7 of the years ex one-offs: 14.1. Other multiples: PEG 1.6, P/B 1.2, P/S 3.6, EV/EBITDA 7.8.
What is the PEG ratio of NBHC?
The PEG ratio of National Bank Holdings Corporation is 1.57 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC)?
Balance-sheet figures for National Bank Holdings Corporation (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 3.6%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NBHC from its 52-week high?
National Bank Holdings Corporation trades at $36.91, about 21% below its 52-week high of $46.71 and 7% above the low of $34.48 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $25.95 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to National Bank Holdings Corporation?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is National Bank Holdings Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $36.91, calculated fair value $25.95 (−30%), Quality Score 55/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NBHC calculated?
We run National Bank Holdings Corporation through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $25.95 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. National Bank Holdings Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $36.91. Our model-based fair value is $25.95, about 30% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with National Bank Holdings Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($28.58). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC) come from?
Earnings per share at National Bank Holdings Corporation grew +26.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.7 %, EBIT margin +15.6 %, tax rate +0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of National Bank Holdings Corporation

How large is the market capitalisation of National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC)?
The market capitalisation of National Bank Holdings Corporation is $1.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of National Bank Holdings Corporation is 3.63 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC)?
Earnings per share at National Bank Holdings Corporation are $1.26 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 29.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC)?
The dividend yield of National Bank Holdings Corporation is 3.5% (payout 102%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC)?
The net margin of National Bank Holdings Corporation is 12.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of National Bank Holdings Corporation is 3.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of National Bank Holdings Corporation is 1.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC)?
Revenue at National Bank Holdings Corporation is growing −22.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +19.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC)?
Earnings per share at National Bank Holdings Corporation are growing −34.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC) generate?
The free cash flow of National Bank Holdings Corporation is $132M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC) hold?
National Bank Holdings Corporation holds more cash than debt, $345M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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