Octodec (OCT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Octodec stock ZAR 16.74, price ZAR 19.62, that is 14.7% below the price, quality 62 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R6.05 – R19.62 · fair‑value band R7.59 – R31.63 · the R19.62 price screens above the R16.74 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Octodec Investments Limited (Octodec or the company), its subsidiaries and associated company (the group) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) listed on the JSE Ltd (JSE) and A2X, with a diversified portfolio of 226 residential, retail, office and industrial properties situated in the major metropolitan areas of Tshwane and Johannesburg.
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The portfolio, including an equity-accounted joint venture, has a lettable area of 1 504 601m2 and is valued at R11.3 billion.
Stock analysis
Octodec (OCT) currently trades at R19.62, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R16.74, 15% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of R38.96 per share, and 8 of the 16 models we run sit above the R19.62 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at R11.41, and 8 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R7.59 (bear) to R31.63 (bull), the price of R19.62 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Octodec reported revenue of 2.1B ZAR in FY2025 versus 1.8B ZAR in FY2021, a compound +3.9%/yr. Reported net income was 491M ZAR in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 5.2B ZAR Small · P/E ratio 10.0 · P/S ratio 2.26 · EPS (TTM) R1.97 · Dividend yield 7.0% · Net margin 24.0% · Return on equity 8.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.3% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −7% fair-value upside, at −15%, OCT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearR7.59Fair Value R16.74BullR31.63
Price R19.62 · Downside -14.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.6000 ZAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.5% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ZAR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
≈ +17.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year≈ +10.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.0%
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.49% → 40%
⚠ Base effect: the rate starts in the earnings trough around 2020 (starting value 1.11 per share, median 2.30 in 2017 to 2018). It measures the recovery from the trough, not lasting growth.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+47.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (South Africa: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +42.5% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Diversified · 138 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Above median
Fair Value upside−10.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)8.1% · Above median
Return on assets4.3% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)24.0% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)39.6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)2.4% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)7.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.57× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Octodec Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OCT
Frequently asked questions
Is Octodec (OCT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R16.74 versus a price of R19.62, about 15% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of OCT?
Our model-based fair value for Octodec is R16.74 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R19.62.
What is the quality score of OCT?
Octodec has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Octodec (OCT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R16.74 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario R7.59, optimistic scenario R31.63. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Octodec stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R16.74, about 15% lower versus a price of R19.62 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R7.59, optimistic scenario R31.63. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Octodec (OCT)?
Octodec reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.2B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Octodec pay a dividend?
Octodec currently shows a dividend yield of 6.98% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Octodec (OCT) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Octodec pays a dividend of R1.37 per share a year, a dividend yield of 7.0%. The last ex-dividend date was May 27, 2026. The payout ratio is 69.5% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.39 times. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What growth is priced into Octodec (OCT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Octodec would have to grow free cash flow by +47.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 14.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.2 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of OCT use?
Our models discount Octodec at 14.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.25, country premium for South Africa. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Octodec that is +47.2 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (14.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Octodec (OCT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Octodec grew +1.2 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +47.2 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Octodec (OCT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Octodec (+47.2 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Octodec (OCT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.71 %: that much free cash flow Octodec produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (14.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Octodec (OCT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Octodec it is R16.74 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of R19.62. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Octodec stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, OCT trades above its calculated fair value: price R19.62, fair value R16.74, a gap of about −15% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OCT?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R19.62); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R16.74). For Octodec the two are R2.88 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Octodec worth?
The market values Octodec at about 5.2B ZAR (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is R19.62; our models calculate a fair value of R16.74 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OCT?
Our models span a range for Octodec: cautious scenario R7.59, base R16.74, optimistic R31.63 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price R19.62). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of OCT?
Octodec trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.0 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R16.74 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings: 8.8. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 2.3, EV/EBITDA 9.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Octodec (OCT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Octodec (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 8.1%, debt of 0.57 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OCT from its 52-week high?
Octodec trades at R19.62, at its 52-week high of R19.62 and 51% above the low of R13.00 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R16.74 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Octodec?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Goodman Group, VICI Properties Inc, W. P. Carey Inc, Stockland, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Octodec stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price R19.62, calculated fair value R16.74 (−15%), Quality Score 62/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OCT calculated?
We run Octodec through 16 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of R16.74 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Octodec itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Octodec (OCT)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was R19.62. Our model-based fair value is R16.74, about 15% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Octodec right now?
The model range is unusually wide (R7.59 to R31.63). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Octodec
How large is the market capitalisation of Octodec (OCT)?
The market capitalisation of Octodec is 5.2B ZAR. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Octodec (OCT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Octodec is 2.26 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Octodec (OCT)?
Earnings per share at Octodec are R1.97 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Octodec (OCT)?
The dividend yield of Octodec is 7.0% (payout 69.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Octodec (OCT)?
The net margin of Octodec is 24.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Octodec (OCT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Octodec is 8.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Octodec (OCT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Octodec is 7.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Octodec (OCT)?
The operating margin of Octodec is 39.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Octodec (OCT)?
Revenue at Octodec is growing +2.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Octodec (OCT)?
Earnings per share at Octodec are growing +17.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Octodec (OCT) carry?
The net debt of Octodec is 4.2B ZAR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 29.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026