Osaka Gas Co (OSGSY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Osaka Gas Co stock $41.65, price $73.90, upside -43.6%, quality 56 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $25.89 – $89.68 · fair‑value band $22.27 – $67.50 · the $73.90 price screens above the $41.65 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 30, 2026.
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Osaka Gas Co., Ltd. provides gas, electricity, and other energy products and services in Japan and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Domestic Energy Business; International Energy Business; and Life & Business Solutions Business.
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The Domestic Energy Business segment manufactures, supplies, and sells city gas; sells gas appliances; installs gas pipeline; sells and transports LNG; sells LPG and industrial gas; and generates and sells electricity.
The International Energy Business segment engages in development and investment related to natural gas; and supply of energy.
The Life & Business Solutions Business segment is involved in the development and leasing of real estate properties; offers information processing services; and sale of fine materials and carbon material products.
In addition, it is involved in home renovation; sale of heat supply; engineering; operation, management, maintenance of buildings and facilities; software development; manufacture and sale of wood protective coating; absorbent functional materials and resin additives and others.
Osaka Gas Co., Ltd. was founded in 1897 and is headquartered in Osaka, Japan.
Stock analysis
Osaka Gas Co (OSGSY) currently trades at $73.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $41.65, 43.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $73.47 per share, and 3 of the 24 models we run sit above the $73.90 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $18.12, and 21 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $22.27 (bear) to $67.50 (bull), the price of $73.90 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Osaka Gas Co reported revenue of ¥2.0T in FY2026 versus ¥1.6T in FY2022, a compound +6.4%/yr. Reported net income was ¥153B in FY2026, compounding +4.5%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $13.9B Large · P/E ratio 14.4 · P/S ratio 1.09 · EPS (TTM) $5.12 · Dividend yield 2.1% · Net margin 7.5% · Return on equity 7.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at −44%, OSGSY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$22.27Fair Value $41.65Bull$67.50
Price $73.90 · Upside -43.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.13 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.4% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+17.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+15.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.1%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 9%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+28.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +26.0% a year for the price and −0.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (37 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Gas · 107 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside−43.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)7.9% · Below median
Return on assets4.6% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)6.9% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)6.6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)1.5% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.44× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)14.4× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.21× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)1.08× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow24.4× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA9.9× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 29
FUTURE (revenue growth)8· sector 16
PAST (return on equity)32· sector 33
HEALTH (low debt)78· sector 82
DIVIDEND (yield)41· sector 71
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Osaka Gas Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OSGSY
Frequently asked questions
Is Osaka Gas Co (OSGSY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $41.65 versus a price of $73.90, about −44% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of OSGSY?
Our model-based fair value for Osaka Gas Co is $41.65 (as of Oct 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $73.90.
What is the quality score of OSGSY?
Osaka Gas Co has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Osaka Gas Co (OSGSY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $41.65 (as of Oct 30, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $22.27, optimistic scenario $67.50. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Osaka Gas Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $41.65, about −44% upside versus a price of $73.90 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $22.27, optimistic scenario $67.50. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Osaka Gas Co (OSGSY)?
Osaka Gas Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥2.0T (latest available figure, as of Oct 30, 2026).
Does Osaka Gas Co pay a dividend?
Osaka Gas Co currently shows a dividend yield of 2.06% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 30, 2026).
What growth is priced into Osaka Gas Co (OSGSY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Osaka Gas Co would have to grow free cash flow by +28.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.3 % per year. As of Oct 30, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of OSGSY use?
Our models discount Osaka Gas Co at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Osaka Gas Co that is +28.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Osaka Gas Co (OSGSY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Osaka Gas Co grew +8.3 % a year. The price currently implies +28.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Osaka Gas Co (OSGSY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Osaka Gas Co (+28.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Osaka Gas Co (OSGSY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.01 %: that much free cash flow Osaka Gas Co produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Osaka Gas Co (OSGSY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Osaka Gas Co it is $41.65 per share (as of Oct 30, 2026), against a price of $73.90. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Osaka Gas Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 30, 2026, OSGSY trades above its calculated fair value: price $73.90, fair value $41.65, a gap of about −44% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OSGSY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($73.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($41.65). For Osaka Gas Co the two are $32.25 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Osaka Gas Co worth?
The market values Osaka Gas Co at about $13.9B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 30, 2026). Per share that is $73.90; our models calculate a fair value of $41.65 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OSGSY?
Our models span a range for Osaka Gas Co: cautious scenario $22.27, base $41.65, optimistic $67.50 per share (as of Oct 30, 2026, price $73.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of OSGSY?
Osaka Gas Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.4 (as of Oct 30, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $41.65 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.2, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 9.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Osaka Gas Co (OSGSY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Osaka Gas Co (as of Oct 30, 2026): return on equity 7.9%, debt of 0.44 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OSGSY from its 52-week high?
Osaka Gas Co trades at $73.90, about 18% below its 52-week high of $89.68 and 17% above the low of $63.00 (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $41.65 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Osaka Gas Co?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Naturgy Energy Group, Atmos Energy Corporation, Snam S.p.A, NiSource Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Osaka Gas Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 30, 2026: price $73.90, calculated fair value $41.65 (−44%), Quality Score 56/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OSGSY calculated?
We run Osaka Gas Co through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $41.65, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Osaka Gas Co itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Osaka Gas Co (OSGSY)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was $73.90. Our model-based fair value is $41.65, about −44% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Osaka Gas Co right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($67.50). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($22.27 to $67.50). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Osaka Gas Co
How large is the market capitalisation of Osaka Gas Co (OSGSY)?
The market capitalisation of Osaka Gas Co is $13.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Osaka Gas Co (OSGSY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Osaka Gas Co is 1.09 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Osaka Gas Co (OSGSY)?
Earnings per share at Osaka Gas Co are $5.12 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Osaka Gas Co (OSGSY)?
The dividend yield of Osaka Gas Co is 2.1% (payout 29.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Osaka Gas Co (OSGSY)?
The net margin of Osaka Gas Co is 7.5% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Osaka Gas Co (OSGSY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Osaka Gas Co is 7.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Osaka Gas Co (OSGSY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Osaka Gas Co is 4.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Osaka Gas Co (OSGSY)?
The operating margin of Osaka Gas Co is 6.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Osaka Gas Co (OSGSY)?
Revenue at Osaka Gas Co is growing +1.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Osaka Gas Co (OSGSY)?
Earnings per share at Osaka Gas Co are growing −23.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Osaka Gas Co (OSGSY) carry?
The net debt of Osaka Gas Co is ¥735B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 8.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 30, 2026