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Provident Financial Services Inc (PFS) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Provident Financial Services Inc stock $21.24, price $22.96, that is 7.5% below the price, quality 49 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services US

PF Provident Financial Services Inc logo Broad data Nov 4, 2026

Provident Financial Services Inc

PFS · US
Fairly valued, weak quality

The stock costs about what our calculation considers fair.

Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +26.0 %/yr in USD)
Highly profitable · 34.0% net margin (TTM)
1.0% dividend yield · Low payout
Ranks above peers (9/15)
Upbeat coverage
Broad data
Costs just 9.6 times its yearly profit.
Fair value $21.24 · Fairly valued (−7.5%)
Quality 49/100
Wide moat 68/100 · thin data
Insiders sold $1.9M (6M)
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$25.04 $11.73 Fair Value $21.24 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $11.73 – $25.04 · fair‑value band $16.63 – $26.92 · the $22.96 price screens above the $21.24 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.

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Company profile

Provident Financial Services, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Provident Bank that provides various banking products and services to individuals, families, and businesses in the United States.

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Its deposit products include savings, checking, interest-bearing checking, money market deposit, and certificate of deposit accounts, as well as IRA products.

The company's loan portfolio comprises commercial real estate loans that are secured by properties, such as multi-family apartment buildings, retail and industrial properties, and office buildings; commercial business loans; fixed-rate and adjustable-rate mortgage loans collateralized by one- to four-family residential real estate properties; residential mortgage loans; commercial construction loans; and consumer loans consisting of home equity loans, home equity lines of credit, personal loans and unsecured lines of credit, and auto and recreational vehicle loans.

It also offers cash management, remote deposit capture, payroll origination, escrow account management, and online and mobile banking services; and business credit cards.

In addition, the company provides wealth management services comprising investment management, trust and estate administration, financial planning, and tax compliance and planning; and insurance agency operations.

Further, it sells insurance and investment products, including annuities; and manages and sells real estate properties acquired through foreclosure. The company was founded in 1839 and is headquartered in Jersey City, New Jersey.

Stock analysis

Provident Financial Services Inc (PFS) currently trades at $22.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $21.24, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 8.1%).

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $22.17 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the $22.96 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $7.33, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $16.63 (bear) to $26.92 (bull), the price of $22.96 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Provident Financial Services Inc reported revenue of $1.4B in FY2025 versus $489M in FY2021, a compound +29.7%/yr. Reported net income was $291M in FY2025, compounding +14.8%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $3.0B Mid · P/E ratio 9.6 · P/S ratio 3.28 · EPS (TTM) $2.38 · Dividend yield 1.0% · Net margin 34.0% · Return on equity 11.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.4% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 68 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −7%, PFS screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $16.63 Fair Value $21.24 Bull $26.92
Price $22.96 · Downside -7.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.83 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income $19.10 $21.24 $26.75 76
DDM Multi-Stage $8.63 $14.96 $18.40 67
Gordon GGM $8.63 $17.47 $26.92 66
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $8.63 $17.47 $26.92 66
DDM Multi-Stage $8.63 $14.96 $18.40 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $21.77 $29.02 $36.28 63
P/B Multiple $11.49 $15.32 $19.15 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $5.47 $7.33 $10.94 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $19.10 $21.24 $26.75 76

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 49/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 33
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 80
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 92
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 3
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 33
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 78
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 50
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 70
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 41
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, 4 officers or directors sold shares worth $1.9M and none bought.

  • SaleJames A. ChristyEVP, CRO of Provident Bank3,000 shares at $23.36$70,080Sep 14, 2026
  • SaleThomas SharaDirector56,166 shares at $23.13$1.3MSep 1, 2026
  • SaleVito GiannolaEVP & CRBO of provident Bank20,000 shares at $24.36$487,200Aug 18, 2026
  • SaleGeorge ListaPres/CEO Prov Protection Plus2× since May 8, 2026: 6,084 shares, avg. $22.99$139,845Jun 12, 2026
  • SaleRobert E McCrackenDirector6,177 shares at $22.13$136,697Feb 26, 2026
  • SaleChristopher P MartinExecutive Chairman, Director1,050 shares at $23.45$24,623Feb 5, 2026

Plus 19 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+21.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +14.8% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.1%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+1.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5.1% vs 5.3%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.29% → 30%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

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Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (93 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Note from the team Oct 11, 2026
AI conclusion: The regional bank maintains a broad branch network that supports customer reach yet shows few lasting competitive advantages in a crowded market.
Main risk: Rising funding costs combined with weak credit demand could limit the impact of the digital platform on deposit and loan growth.
Provident Bank has now rolled out digital account opening across its full 135-branch network. This move targets faster organic growth in deposits and loans for a regional player still digesting prior expansion. Will the platform meaningfully improve customer acquisition and efficiency, or will funding costs and credit demand trends prove more decisive?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 998 stocks

Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 49 · Below median
Fair Value upside −7.5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 11.0% · Above median
Return on assets 1.2% · Above median
Net margin (12 months) 34.0% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months) 44.7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 8.7% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months) 1.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.89× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 9.6× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.06× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months) 3.28× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 7.0× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 13.0× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.61× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)23 · sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)44 · sector 47
PAST (return on equity)44 · sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)21 · sector 53

HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Postal Savings Bank of China Co 601658 ¥5.53 ¥7.59 +37% vs PFS
China Merchants Bank Co 600036 ¥42.88 ¥52.73 +23% vs PFS
BNP Paribas SA BNP €91.93 €106.01 +15% vs PFS
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.18 €4.49 −27% vs PFS
State Bank of India SBIN ₹1,019 ₹736.65 −28% vs PFS
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €76.80 €50.44 −34% vs PFS
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $9.40 $5.90 −37% vs PFS
DBS Group D05 69.72 SGD 40.39 SGD −42% vs PFS
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹788.25 ₹406.39 −48% vs PFS
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,571 ₹615.63 −61% vs PFS

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Provident Financial Services Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PFS

Frequently asked questions

Is Provident Financial Services Inc (PFS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $21.24 versus a price of $22.96, about 7% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of PFS?
Our model-based fair value for Provident Financial Services Inc is $21.24 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $22.96.
What is the quality score of PFS?
Provident Financial Services Inc has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Provident Financial Services Inc (PFS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $21.24 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $16.63, optimistic scenario $26.92. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Provident Financial Services Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $21.24, about 7% lower versus a price of $22.96 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $16.63, optimistic scenario $26.92. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Provident Financial Services Inc (PFS)?
Provident Financial Services Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $913M (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Provident Financial Services Inc pay a dividend?
Provident Financial Services Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 1.05% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Provident Financial Services Inc (PFS) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Provident Financial Services Inc pays a dividend of $0.24 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.0%. The next ex-dividend date is Nov 13, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2003. The payout ratio is 10.1% of earnings. Our assessment: Low payout. A low payout ratio: the dividend takes at most 60 % of earnings. Whether free cash flow covers it as well, we cannot see for this company.
What is the intrinsic value of Provident Financial Services Inc (PFS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Provident Financial Services Inc it is $21.24 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $22.96. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Provident Financial Services Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, PFS trades above its calculated fair value: price $22.96, fair value $21.24, a gap of about −7% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PFS?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($22.96); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($21.24). For Provident Financial Services Inc the two are $1.72 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Provident Financial Services Inc worth?
The market values Provident Financial Services Inc at about $3.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $22.96; our models calculate a fair value of $21.24 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PFS?
Our models span a range for Provident Financial Services Inc: cautious scenario $16.63, base $21.24, optimistic $26.92 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $22.96). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PFS?
Provident Financial Services Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.6 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $21.24 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 4 of the years ex one-offs: 11.1. Other multiples: PEG 1.6, P/B 1.1, P/S 3.3, EV/EBITDA 13.0.
What is the PEG ratio of PFS?
The PEG ratio of Provident Financial Services Inc is 1.61 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Provident Financial Services Inc (PFS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Provident Financial Services Inc (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 11.0%, debt of 0.89 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PFS from its 52-week high?
Provident Financial Services Inc trades at $22.96, about 8% below its 52-week high of $25.04 and 33% above the low of $17.23 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $21.24 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Provident Financial Services Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Provident Financial Services Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $22.96, calculated fair value $21.24 (−7%), Quality Score 49/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PFS calculated?
We run Provident Financial Services Inc through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $21.24 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Provident Financial Services Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Provident Financial Services Inc (PFS)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $22.96. Our model-based fair value is $21.24, about 7% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Provident Financial Services Inc right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Provident Financial Services Inc (PFS) come from?
Earnings per share at Provident Financial Services Inc grew +2.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.2 %, EBIT margin −4.4 %, tax rate +0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Provident Financial Services Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Provident Financial Services Inc (PFS)?
The market capitalisation of Provident Financial Services Inc is $3.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Provident Financial Services Inc (PFS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Provident Financial Services Inc is 3.28 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Provident Financial Services Inc (PFS)?
Earnings per share at Provident Financial Services Inc are $2.38 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Provident Financial Services Inc (PFS)?
The dividend yield of Provident Financial Services Inc is 1.0% (payout 10.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Provident Financial Services Inc (PFS)?
The net margin of Provident Financial Services Inc is 34.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Provident Financial Services Inc (PFS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Provident Financial Services Inc is 11.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Provident Financial Services Inc (PFS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Provident Financial Services Inc is 1.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Provident Financial Services Inc (PFS)?
The operating margin of Provident Financial Services Inc is 44.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Provident Financial Services Inc (PFS)?
Revenue at Provident Financial Services Inc is growing +8.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +35.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Provident Financial Services Inc (PFS)?
Earnings per share at Provident Financial Services Inc are growing −3.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Provident Financial Services Inc (PFS) generate?
The free cash flow of Provident Financial Services Inc is $431M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Provident Financial Services Inc (PFS) carry?
The net debt of Provident Financial Services Inc is $2.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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