PPHE Hotel Group Ltd (PPH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of PPHE Hotel Group Ltd stock £12.46, price £15.34, that is 18.8% below the price, quality 50 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 23 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £9.23 – £20.50 · fair‑value band £8.34 – £17.32 · the £15.34 price screens above the £12.46 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
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PPHE Hotel Group Limited owns, co-owns, develops, leases, operates, and franchises hospitality real estate in the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Germany, Croatia, Austria, Hungary, Italy, and Serbia.
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The company focuses on full-service upscale, upper upscale, and lifestyle hotels in cities and regional, as well as resort and campsite properties in select resort destinations.
It owns and operates hotels and resorts under the Park Plaza, the art'otel, Holmes, Radisson Collection, and the Arena Campsites brands, as well as the Arena Hotels & Apartments.
The company operates restaurants and bars; and licensed outlets, including Italian coffee bar espressamente illy and the Balinese Mandara Spa. The company was formerly known as Park Plaza Hotels Limited and changed its name to PPHE Hotel Group Limited in March 2012.
PPHE Hotel Group Limited was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
Stock analysis
PPHE Hotel Group Ltd (PPH) currently trades at £15.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £12.46, 19% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of £6.92 per share, and 3 of the 23 models we run sit above the £15.34 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at £2.68, and 20 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: £8.34 (bear) to £17.32 (bull), the price of £15.34 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
PPHE Hotel Group Ltd reported revenue of £466M in FY2025 versus £141M in FY2021, a compound +34.8%/yr. Reported net income was £13.2M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap £648M Small · P/E ratio 4.2 · P/S ratio 1.35 · EPS (TTM) £3.68 · Dividend yield 2.5% · Net margin 32.7% · Return on equity 25.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 58 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at −19%, PPH screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear£8.34Fair Value £12.46Bull£17.32
Price £15.34 · Downside -18.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (£2.80 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.9% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
−1.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−17.1% vs −8.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−74% → 14%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+18.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +15.4% a year for the price and +1.0% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Lodging · 159 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Below median
Fair Value upside−18.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)25.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets1.4% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)63.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)10.6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)4.7% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.62× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Lodging median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)4.2× · Cheapest 25%
P/B2.02× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)2.66× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)25.7× · Pricier than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "PPHE Hotel Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PPH
Frequently asked questions
Is PPHE Hotel Group Ltd (PPH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £12.46 versus a price of £15.34, about 19% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PPH?
Our model-based fair value for PPHE Hotel Group Ltd is £12.46 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £15.34.
What is the quality score of PPH?
PPHE Hotel Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for PPHE Hotel Group Ltd (PPH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £12.46 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario £8.34, optimistic scenario £17.32. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the PPHE Hotel Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £12.46, about 19% lower versus a price of £15.34 (overvalued). Cautious scenario £8.34, optimistic scenario £17.32. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of PPHE Hotel Group Ltd (PPH)?
PPHE Hotel Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £476M (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does PPHE Hotel Group Ltd pay a dividend?
PPHE Hotel Group Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 2.54% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into PPHE Hotel Group Ltd (PPH)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, PPHE Hotel Group Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +18.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +35.6 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PPH use?
Our models discount PPHE Hotel Group Ltd at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.38, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For PPHE Hotel Group Ltd that is +18.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has PPHE Hotel Group Ltd (PPH) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at PPHE Hotel Group Ltd grew +35.6 % a year. The price currently implies +18.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of PPHE Hotel Group Ltd (PPH) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into PPHE Hotel Group Ltd (+18.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of PPHE Hotel Group Ltd (PPH)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.59 %: that much free cash flow PPHE Hotel Group Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of PPHE Hotel Group Ltd (PPH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For PPHE Hotel Group Ltd it is £12.46 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of £15.34. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is PPHE Hotel Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, PPH trades above its calculated fair value: price £15.34, fair value £12.46, a gap of about −19% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PPH?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£15.34); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£12.46). For PPHE Hotel Group Ltd the two are £2.88 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is PPHE Hotel Group Ltd worth?
The market values PPHE Hotel Group Ltd at about £648M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is £15.34; our models calculate a fair value of £12.46 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PPH?
Our models span a range for PPHE Hotel Group Ltd: cautious scenario £8.34, base £12.46, optimistic £17.32 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price £15.34). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PPH?
PPHE Hotel Group Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.2 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £12.46 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.0, P/S 2.7, EV/EBITDA 19.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of PPHE Hotel Group Ltd (PPH)?
Balance-sheet figures for PPHE Hotel Group Ltd (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 25.4%, debt of 2.62 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PPH from its 52-week high?
PPHE Hotel Group Ltd trades at £15.34, about 25% below its 52-week high of £20.50 and 8% above the low of £14.14 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £12.46 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to PPHE Hotel Group Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Marriott International, Inc, Hilton Worldwide Holdings, Hyatt Hotels Corporation, H World Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is PPHE Hotel Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price £15.34, calculated fair value £12.46 (−19%), Quality Score 50/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PPH calculated?
We run PPHE Hotel Group Ltd through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £12.46, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. PPHE Hotel Group Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of PPHE Hotel Group Ltd (PPH)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was £15.34. Our model-based fair value is £12.46, about 19% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with PPHE Hotel Group Ltd right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (£8.34 to £17.32) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of PPHE Hotel Group Ltd (PPH) come from?
Earnings per share at PPHE Hotel Group Ltd grew −4.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.1 %, EBIT margin −4.1 %, tax rate −1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −6.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of PPHE Hotel Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of PPHE Hotel Group Ltd (PPH)?
The market capitalisation of PPHE Hotel Group Ltd is £648M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of PPHE Hotel Group Ltd (PPH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of PPHE Hotel Group Ltd is 1.35 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of PPHE Hotel Group Ltd (PPH)?
Earnings per share at PPHE Hotel Group Ltd are £3.68 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 4.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of PPHE Hotel Group Ltd (PPH)?
The dividend yield of PPHE Hotel Group Ltd is 2.5% (payout 10.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of PPHE Hotel Group Ltd (PPH)?
The net margin of PPHE Hotel Group Ltd is 32.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of PPHE Hotel Group Ltd (PPH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of PPHE Hotel Group Ltd is 25.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of PPHE Hotel Group Ltd (PPH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of PPHE Hotel Group Ltd is 2.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of PPHE Hotel Group Ltd (PPH)?
The operating margin of PPHE Hotel Group Ltd is 10.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at PPHE Hotel Group Ltd (PPH)?
Revenue at PPHE Hotel Group Ltd is growing +4.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at PPHE Hotel Group Ltd (PPH)?
Earnings per share at PPHE Hotel Group Ltd are growing −35.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does PPHE Hotel Group Ltd (PPH) carry?
The net debt of PPHE Hotel Group Ltd is £1.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 21.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026