Saia Inc (SAIA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Saia Inc stock $126, price $335, that is 62.3% below the price, quality 49 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Our calculation puts a fair price 62% below what the stock costs today.
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
Revenue last quarter +17% vs. a year ago.
Quality 49/100
Expensive Growth(revenue 5y +12.2 %/yr in USD)
Thin margins · 8.0% net margin (TTM)
Mixed vs. peers(8/14)
Moderate moat49/100 · thin data
Neutral coverage
Insiders sold $136,881 (6M)
Some data
Fair value $126.27 · Strongly overvalued (−62.3%)
⟳ Cyclical
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Margin guidance cut prompted by terminal expansion🚩Old Dominion and efficient rivals could erode pricing power🚩Driverless trucks could reshape LTL cost structures🚩Stricter emissions and safety rules could raise costs
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $170.76 – $605.92 · fair‑value band $66.04 – $205.67 · the $335.17 price screens above the $126.27 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Saia, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a transportation company in North America. The company provides less-than-truckload services for shipments between 100 and 10,000 pounds.
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It also offers other value-added services, including brokered truckload, expedited transportation, and other logistics services. As of December 31, 2025, it operated 213 owned and leased terminals; and owned approximately 7,700 tractors and 26,500 trailers.
The company was formerly known as SCS Transportation, Inc. and changed its name to Saia, Inc. in July 2002. Saia, Inc. was founded in 1924 and is headquartered in Johns Creek, Georgia.
Stock analysis
Saia Inc (SAIA) currently trades at $335.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $126.27, 62% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $201.31 per share, and 1 of the 22 models we run sit above the $335.17 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $64.52, and 21 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $66.04 (bear) to $205.67 (bull), the price of $335.17 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Saia Inc reported revenue of $3.2B in FY2025 versus $2.3B in FY2021, a compound +9.0%/yr. Reported net income was $255M in FY2025, compounding +0.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $9.0B Mid · P/E ratio 31.7 · P/S ratio 2.54 · EPS (TTM) $10.56 · Net margin 8.0% · Return on equity 10.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 16.6% · Operating margin 12.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at −62%, SAIA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$66.04Fair Value $126.27Bull$205.67
Price $335.17 · Downside -62.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($8.97 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
SaleRaymond R RamuExec. VP & Chief Customer Off.2× since Nov 18, 2025: 6,226 shares, avg. $368.45$2.3MFeb 13, 2026
SalePatrick D SugarEVP Operations2,706 shares at $386.74$1.0MFeb 13, 2026
SaleKelly W BentonVP & CAO2× since Dec 2, 2025: 1,800 shares, avg. $347.57$625,630Feb 13, 2026
SaleMatthew J BattehChief Financial Officer2,026 shares at $381.73$773,391Feb 13, 2026
SaleDonna E EppsDirector422 shares at $277.43$117,075Nov 26, 2025
BuyDonna E EppsDirector422 shares at $277.60$117,147Nov 26, 2025
Plus 5 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.2% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+12.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.12.8% vs 16.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 11%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+77.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +73.3% a year for the price and +5.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (88 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Limited evidence of durable advantage leaves the company exposed in a price-competitive trucking market, with network expansion offering reach but pressuring margins through higher costs.
Main risk: Old Dominion Freight Line and other disciplined national LTL carriers with superior operating ratios and network density could take share or force Saia to accept lower rates on overlapping lanes.
Bull case: By maturing its expanded network and adopting safety-focused automation Saia could match or exceed rivals’ efficiency and win density-driven volume.
Bear case: If autonomous technology scales quickly with better-capitalised peers or regulations tighten sharply Saia might face sustained margin pressure and slower density gains in its new terminals.
Saia keeps adding terminals to its LTL network while July and August data showed only modest shipment growth yet stronger tonnage from heavier loads. Expansion builds future reach but has already prompted a cut to full-year margin guidance. Will the combination of heavier freight and pricing discipline lift returns enough to justify the added capacity, or will costs keep weighing on results?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Trucking · 44 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Above median
Fair Value upside−62.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)10.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets7.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)8.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)12.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)17.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.06× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Trucking median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Saia Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SAIA
Frequently asked questions
Is Saia Inc (SAIA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $126.27 versus a price of $335.17, about 62% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SAIA?
Our model-based fair value for Saia Inc is $126.27 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $335.17.
What is the quality score of SAIA?
Saia Inc has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Saia Inc (SAIA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $126.27 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $66.04, optimistic scenario $205.67. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Saia Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $126.27, about 62% lower versus a price of $335.17 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $66.04, optimistic scenario $205.67. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Saia Inc (SAIA)?
Saia Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.5B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Saia Inc (SAIA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Saia Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +77.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.2 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SAIA use?
Our models discount Saia Inc at 12.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 2.19, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Saia Inc that is +77.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Saia Inc (SAIA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Saia Inc grew +12.2 % a year. The price currently implies +77.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Saia Inc (SAIA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Saia Inc (+77.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Saia Inc (SAIA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.30 %: that much free cash flow Saia Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Saia Inc (SAIA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Saia Inc it is $126.27 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $335.17. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Saia Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, SAIA trades above its calculated fair value: price $335.17, fair value $126.27, a gap of about −62% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SAIA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($335.17); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($126.27). For Saia Inc the two are $208.90 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Saia Inc worth?
The market values Saia Inc at about $9.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $335.17; our models calculate a fair value of $126.27 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SAIA?
Our models span a range for Saia Inc: cautious scenario $66.04, base $126.27, optimistic $205.67 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $335.17). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SAIA?
Saia Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 31.7 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $126.27 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 28.3. Other multiples: PEG 1.5, P/B 3.5, P/S 2.5, EV/EBITDA 14.8.
What is the PEG ratio of SAIA?
The PEG ratio of Saia Inc is 1.48 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Saia Inc (SAIA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Saia Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 10.6%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SAIA from its 52-week high?
Saia Inc trades at $335.17, about 31% below its 52-week high of $487.14 and 34% above the low of $250.48 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $126.27 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Saia Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc, XPO, Inc, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings, TFI International Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Saia Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $335.17, calculated fair value $126.27 (−62%), Quality Score 49/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SAIA calculated?
We run Saia Inc through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $126.27, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Saia Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Saia Inc (SAIA)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $335.17. Our model-based fair value is $126.27, about 62% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Saia Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($205.67). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (49/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($66.04 to $205.67). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Saia Inc (SAIA) come from?
Earnings per share at Saia Inc grew +22.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.1 %, EBIT margin +8.2 %, tax rate +1.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Saia Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Saia Inc (SAIA)?
The market capitalisation of Saia Inc is $9.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Saia Inc (SAIA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Saia Inc is 2.54 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Saia Inc (SAIA)?
Earnings per share at Saia Inc are $10.56 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 31.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Saia Inc (SAIA)?
The net margin of Saia Inc is 8.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Saia Inc (SAIA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Saia Inc is 10.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Saia Inc (SAIA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Saia Inc is 16.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Saia Inc (SAIA)?
The operating margin of Saia Inc is 12.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Saia Inc (SAIA)?
Revenue at Saia Inc is growing +17.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Saia Inc (SAIA)?
Earnings per share at Saia Inc are growing +5.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Saia Inc (SAIA) carry?
The net debt of Saia Inc is $398M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 14.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 6, 2026