Marten Transport Ltd (MRTN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Marten Transport Ltd $6.62, price $13.17, upside -49.7%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Marten Transport Ltd for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.24 – $21.95 · fair‑value band $4.98 – $8.28 · the $13.17 price screens above the $6.62 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Follow Marten Transport in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Marten Transport is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Marten Transport, Ltd. operates as a temperature-sensitive truckload carrier for shippers in the United States, Mexico, and Canada. It operates through Truckload, Dedicated, and Brokerage segments.
Show more
Marten Transport, Ltd. operates as a temperature-sensitive truckload carrier for shippers in the United States, Mexico, and Canada. It operates through Truckload, Dedicated, and Brokerage segments. The Truckload segment transports food and other consumer packaged goods that require a temperature-controlled or insulated environment, as well as dry freight; and regional short-haul and medium-to-long-haul full-load transportation services. The Dedicated segment offers customized transportation solutions for individual customers' requirements using temperature-controlled trailers, dry vans, and other specialized equipment. The Brokerage segment develops contractual relationships with and arranges for third-party carriers to transport freight for customers in temperature-controlled trailers and dry vans. As of December 31, 2025, the company operated a fleet of 2,654 tractors that included 2,577 company-owned tractors and 77 tractors supplied by independent contractors. Marten Transport, Ltd. was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Mondovi, Wisconsin.
Stock analysis
Marten Transport Ltd (MRTN) currently trades at $13.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.62, implying the stock looks roughly 98.9% overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $6.30 per share, and 1 of the 16 models we run sit above the $13.17 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $1.13, and 15 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $4.98 (bear) to $8.28 (bull), the price of $13.17 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Marten Transport Ltd reported revenue of $884M in FY2025 versus $974M in FY2021, a compound −2.4%/yr. Reported net income was $17.4M in FY2025, compounding −32.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.1B · P/E ratio 87.8 · P/S ratio 1.73 · EPS (TTM) $0.1500 · Dividend yield 1.8% · Net margin 2.0% · Return on equity 1.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 42% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −59% fair-value upside, at −50%, MRTN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($1.13 to $19.05). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $4.98Fair Value $6.62Bull $8.28
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.19/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.9% a year
Revenue growth 39 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.5%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−22.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−23.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−24% vs −6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 1%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Trucking · 47 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Below median
Fair Value upside−50% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)2% · Below median
Return on assets0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.8% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Trucking median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)87.8× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.40× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)1.25× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA9.0× · Pricier than median
PEG1.83× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 31
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 17
PAST (return on equity)7· sector 15
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)36· sector 36
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Marten Transport Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MRTN
Frequently asked questions
Is Marten Transport Ltd (MRTN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $6.62 versus a price of $13.17, about −50% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MRTN?
Our model-based fair value for Marten Transport Ltd is $6.62 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $13.17.
What is the quality score of MRTN?
Marten Transport Ltd has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Marten Transport Ltd (MRTN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $6.62 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.98, optimistic scenario $8.28. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Marten Transport Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $6.62, about −50% upside versus a price of $13.17 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $4.98, optimistic scenario $8.28. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Marten Transport Ltd (MRTN)?
Marten Transport Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $858M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Marten Transport Ltd pay a dividend?
Marten Transport Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.82% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Marten Transport Ltd (MRTN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Marten Transport Ltd it is $6.62 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $13.17. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Marten Transport Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, MRTN trades above its calculated fair value: price $13.17, fair value $6.62, a gap of about −50% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MRTN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($13.17); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($6.62). For Marten Transport Ltd the two are $6.55 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Marten Transport Ltd worth?
The market values Marten Transport Ltd at about $1.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $13.17; our models calculate a fair value of $6.62 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MRTN?
Our models span a range for Marten Transport Ltd: cautious scenario $4.98, base $6.62, optimistic $8.28 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $13.17). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MRTN?
Marten Transport Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 87.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $6.62 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.8, P/B 1.4, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 9.0.
What is the PEG ratio of MRTN?
The PEG ratio of Marten Transport Ltd is 1.83 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Marten Transport Ltd (MRTN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Marten Transport Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 1.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MRTN from its 52-week high?
Marten Transport Ltd trades at $13.17, about 27% below its 52-week high of $18.14 and 42% above the low of $9.24 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $6.62 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Marten Transport Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc, XPO, Inc, TFI International Inc, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Marten Transport Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $13.17, calculated fair value $6.62 (−50%), Quality Score 46/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MRTN calculated?
We run Marten Transport Ltd through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $6.62, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Marten Transport Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Marten Transport Ltd (MRTN)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $13.17. Our model-based fair value is $6.62, about −50% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Marten Transport Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($8.28). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Marten Transport Ltd (MRTN) come from?
Earnings per share at Marten Transport Ltd grew +1.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.7 %, EBIT margin −6.8 %, tax rate +2.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Marten Transport Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Marten Transport Ltd (MRTN)?
The market capitalisation of Marten Transport Ltd is $1.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Marten Transport Ltd (MRTN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Marten Transport Ltd is 1.73 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Marten Transport Ltd (MRTN)?
Earnings per share at Marten Transport Ltd are $0.1500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 87.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Marten Transport Ltd (MRTN)?
The dividend yield of Marten Transport Ltd is 1.8% (payout 160%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Marten Transport Ltd (MRTN)?
The net margin of Marten Transport Ltd is 2.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Marten Transport Ltd (MRTN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Marten Transport Ltd is 1.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Marten Transport Ltd (MRTN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Marten Transport Ltd is 8.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Marten Transport Ltd (MRTN)?
The operating margin of Marten Transport Ltd is 2.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Marten Transport Ltd (MRTN)?
Revenue at Marten Transport Ltd is growing −2.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −11.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Marten Transport Ltd (MRTN)?
Earnings per share at Marten Transport Ltd are growing −25.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Marten Transport Ltd (MRTN) generate?
The free cash flow of Marten Transport Ltd is −$51.1M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Marten Transport Ltd (MRTN) hold?
Marten Transport Ltd holds more cash than debt, $42.9M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch Marten Transport Ltd in the live analysis
One click puts Marten Transport Ltd on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Some data
Sep 24, 2026