San Miguel AG (SAMI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of San Miguel AG stock ARS 185, price ARS 366, that is 49.5% below the price, quality 18 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 9 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 12.73 ARS – 1,469 ARS · fair‑value band 128.55 ARS – 274.64 ARS · the 366.00 ARS price screens above the 184.75 ARS fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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S.A. San Miguel A.G.I.C.I. y F. engages in cultivation, processing, producing, and commercializing citrus products in Argentina. It offers oil and essences, juices, peel, and pulp cells products. The company is involved in harvesting, packing, and grinding activities. It also exports its products.
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The company was incorporated in 1954 and is based in Vicente López, Argentina.
Stock analysis
San Miguel AG (SAMI) currently trades at 366.00 ARS, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 184.75 ARS, 50% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 209.90 ARS per share, and 0 of the 8 models we run sit above the 366.00 ARS price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 42.57 ARS, and 8 of the 8 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 128.55 ARS (bear) to 274.64 ARS (bull), the price of 366.00 ARS sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 18/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
San Miguel AG reported revenue of 173B ARS in FY2025 versus 22.9B ARS in FY2021, a compound +65.7%/yr. Reported net income was −35.6B ARS in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 736B ARS (≈ $476M) Small · P/S ratio 4.03 · EPS (TTM) −29.32 ARS · Net margin −25.9% · Return on equity −73.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.7% (5-year average) · Operating margin −0.1% · Revenue (TTM) 183B ARS.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 16 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 59% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −50%, SAMI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear128.55 ARSFair Value 184.75 ARSBull274.64 ARS
Price 366.00 ARS · Downside -49.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF161.60 ARS209.90 ARS345.48 ARS79
Growth DCF151.23 ARS217.35 ARS323.11 ARS78
5Y EBITDA Exit120.73 ARS193.97 ARS335.72 ARS73
All 9 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF161.60 ARS209.90 ARS345.48 ARS79
5Y Revenue Exit106.12 ARS164.63 ARS283.57 ARS71
5Y EBITDA Exit120.73 ARS193.97 ARS335.72 ARS73
10Y Revenue Exit130.46 ARS227.09 ARS263.68 ARS68
10Y EBITDA Exit138.31 ARS245.85 ARS405.86 ARS66
Multiples
EV/EBITDAn/an/a2.80 ARS62
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)31.77 ARS42.57 ARS63.53 ARS54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF151.23 ARS217.35 ARS323.11 ARS78
Rev-Margin DCF115.25 ARS193.31 ARS353.33 ARS70
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.67/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+66.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+131.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+58.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +53.9% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+53.9%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−6.8% (2020) → −1.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+61.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Argentina: IMF forecast 13.8% a year to 2030) that is about +41.7% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm Products · 291 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score18 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−49.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−5.4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−25.9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−0.1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)77.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.40× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "San Miguel AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SAMI
Frequently asked questions
Is San Miguel AG (SAMI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 184.75 ARS versus a price of 366.00 ARS, about 50% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SAMI?
Our model-based fair value for San Miguel AG is 184.75 ARS (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 366.00 ARS.
What is the quality score of SAMI?
San Miguel AG has a Quality Score of 18/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for San Miguel AG (SAMI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 184.75 ARS (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario 128.55 ARS, optimistic scenario 274.64 ARS. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the San Miguel AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 184.75 ARS, about 50% lower versus a price of 366.00 ARS (overvalued). Cautious scenario 128.55 ARS, optimistic scenario 274.64 ARS. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of San Miguel AG (SAMI)?
San Miguel AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 183B ARS (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
What growth is priced into San Miguel AG (SAMI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, San Miguel AG would have to grow free cash flow by +61.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 20.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +58.3 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SAMI use?
Our models discount San Miguel AG at 20.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for Argentina. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For San Miguel AG that is +61.2 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (20.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has San Miguel AG (SAMI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at San Miguel AG grew +58.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +61.2 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of San Miguel AG (SAMI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into San Miguel AG (+61.2 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of San Miguel AG (SAMI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.14 %: that much free cash flow San Miguel AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (20.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of San Miguel AG (SAMI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For San Miguel AG it is 184.75 ARS per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of 366.00 ARS. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models in 4 families (DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF).
Is San Miguel AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, SAMI trades above its calculated fair value: price 366.00 ARS, fair value 184.75 ARS, a gap of about −50% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SAMI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (366.00 ARS); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (184.75 ARS). For San Miguel AG the two are 181.25 ARS per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is San Miguel AG worth?
The market values San Miguel AG at about 736B ARS (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is 366.00 ARS; our models calculate a fair value of 184.75 ARS per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SAMI?
Our models span a range for San Miguel AG: cautious scenario 128.55 ARS, base 184.75 ARS, optimistic 274.64 ARS per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price 366.00 ARS). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of San Miguel AG (SAMI)?
Balance-sheet figures for San Miguel AG (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity −73.0%, debt of 1.40 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 18/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SAMI from its 52-week high?
San Miguel AG trades at 366.00 ARS, about 59% below its 52-week high of 900.00 ARS and 2% above the low of 358.50 ARS (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 184.75 ARS is for.
Which stocks are comparable to San Miguel AG?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Muyuan Foods Group, Archer-Daniels-Midland Company, Tyson Foods, Inc, Bunge Global SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is San Miguel AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price 366.00 ARS, calculated fair value 184.75 ARS (−50%), Quality Score 18/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SAMI calculated?
We run San Miguel AG through 9 models from 4 families: DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 184.75 ARS builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. San Miguel AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of San Miguel AG (SAMI)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was 366.00 ARS. Our model-based fair value is 184.75 ARS, about 50% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with San Miguel AG right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (274.64 ARS). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (18/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (128.55 ARS to 274.64 ARS) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of San Miguel AG
How large is the market capitalisation of San Miguel AG (SAMI)?
The market capitalisation of San Miguel AG is 736B ARS (≈ $476M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of San Miguel AG (SAMI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of San Miguel AG is 4.03 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of San Miguel AG (SAMI)?
Earnings per share at San Miguel AG are −29.32 ARS. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of San Miguel AG (SAMI)?
The net margin of San Miguel AG is −25.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of San Miguel AG (SAMI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of San Miguel AG is −73.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of San Miguel AG (SAMI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of San Miguel AG is −2.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of San Miguel AG (SAMI)?
The operating margin of San Miguel AG is −0.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at San Miguel AG (SAMI)?
Revenue at San Miguel AG is growing +77.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +131%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at San Miguel AG (SAMI)?
Earnings per share at San Miguel AG are growing +18.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does San Miguel AG (SAMI) carry?
The net debt of San Miguel AG is 315B ARS (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 21.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 8, 2026