San Miguel AG (SAMI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of San Miguel AG ARS 185, price ARS 432, upside -57.2%, quality 17 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 12.73 ARS – 1,469 ARS · fair‑value band 128.55 ARS – 274.64 ARS · the 432.00 ARS price screens above the 184.75 ARS fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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S.A. San Miguel A.G.I.C.I. y F. engages in cultivation, processing, producing, and commercializing citrus products in Argentina. It offers oil and essences, juices, peel, and pulp cells products. The company is involved in harvesting, packing, and grinding activities. It also exports its products.
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S.A. San Miguel A.G.I.C.I. y F. engages in cultivation, processing, producing, and commercializing citrus products in Argentina. It offers oil and essences, juices, peel, and pulp cells products. The company is involved in harvesting, packing, and grinding activities. It also exports its products. The company was incorporated in 1954 and is based in Vicente López, Argentina.
Stock analysis
San Miguel AG (SAMI) currently trades at 432.00 ARS, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 184.75 ARS, implying the stock looks roughly 133.8% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 411.41 ARS per share, and 3 of the 10 models we run sit above the 432.00 ARS price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 42.65 ARS, and 7 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 128.55 ARS (bear) to 274.64 ARS (bull), the price of 432.00 ARS sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 17/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
San Miguel AG reported revenue of 173B ARS in FY2025 versus 22.9B ARS in FY2021, a compound +65.7%/yr. Reported net income was −35.6B ARS in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 929B ARS (≈ $651M) · P/S ratio 5.41 · EPS (TTM) −30.33 ARS · Net margin −20.6% · Return on equity −70.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.7% · Operating margin −49.9% · Revenue (TTM) 172B ARS.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 35 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 52% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −57%, SAMI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 128.55 ARSFair Value 184.75 ARSBull 274.64 ARS
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.67/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+66.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+131.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+58.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +53.9% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+53.9%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−6.8% (2020) → −1.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+64.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Argentina: IMF forecast 13.8% a year to 2030) that is about +44.2% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm Products · 297 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score17 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−57% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−28% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−50% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−6% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.40× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper
P/FCF0.0× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA3.0× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 33
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 21
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)30· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 47
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "San Miguel AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SAMI
Frequently asked questions
Is San Miguel AG (SAMI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 184.75 ARS versus a price of 432.00 ARS, about −57% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SAMI?
Our model-based fair value for San Miguel AG is 184.75 ARS (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 432.00 ARS.
What is the quality score of SAMI?
San Miguel AG has a Quality Score of 17/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for San Miguel AG (SAMI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 184.75 ARS (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario 128.55 ARS, optimistic scenario 274.64 ARS. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the San Miguel AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 184.75 ARS, about −57% upside versus a price of 432.00 ARS (overvalued). Cautious scenario 128.55 ARS, optimistic scenario 274.64 ARS. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of San Miguel AG (SAMI)?
San Miguel AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 172B ARS (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into San Miguel AG (SAMI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, San Miguel AG would have to grow free cash flow by +64.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 20.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +58.3 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SAMI use?
Our models discount San Miguel AG at 20.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for Argentina. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For San Miguel AG that is +64.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (20.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has San Miguel AG (SAMI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at San Miguel AG grew +58.3 % a year. The price currently implies +64.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of San Miguel AG (SAMI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into San Miguel AG (+64.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of San Miguel AG (SAMI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.81 %: that much free cash flow San Miguel AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (20.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of San Miguel AG (SAMI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For San Miguel AG it is 184.75 ARS per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 432.00 ARS. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is San Miguel AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, SAMI trades above its calculated fair value: price 432.00 ARS, fair value 184.75 ARS, a gap of about −57% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SAMI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (432.00 ARS); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (184.75 ARS). For San Miguel AG the two are 247.25 ARS per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is San Miguel AG worth?
The market values San Miguel AG at about 929B ARS (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 432.00 ARS; our models calculate a fair value of 184.75 ARS per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SAMI?
Our models span a range for San Miguel AG: cautious scenario 128.55 ARS, base 184.75 ARS, optimistic 274.64 ARS per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 432.00 ARS). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of San Miguel AG (SAMI)?
Balance-sheet figures for San Miguel AG (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −70.3%, debt of 1.40 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 17/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SAMI from its 52-week high?
San Miguel AG trades at 432.00 ARS, about 52% below its 52-week high of 900.00 ARS and 20% above the low of 361.50 ARS (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 184.75 ARS is for.
Which stocks are comparable to San Miguel AG?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Archer-Daniels-Midland Company, Muyuan Foods Group, Bunge Global SA, Tyson Foods, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is San Miguel AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 432.00 ARS, calculated fair value 184.75 ARS (−57%), Quality Score 17/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SAMI calculated?
We run San Miguel AG through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 184.75 ARS, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. San Miguel AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of San Miguel AG (SAMI)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 432.00 ARS. Our model-based fair value is 184.75 ARS, about −57% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with San Miguel AG right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (274.64 ARS). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (17/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (128.55 ARS to 274.64 ARS) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of San Miguel AG
How large is the market capitalisation of San Miguel AG (SAMI)?
The market capitalisation of San Miguel AG is 929B ARS (≈ $651M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of San Miguel AG (SAMI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of San Miguel AG is 5.41 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of San Miguel AG (SAMI)?
Earnings per share at San Miguel AG are −30.33 ARS. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of San Miguel AG (SAMI)?
The net margin of San Miguel AG is −20.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of San Miguel AG (SAMI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of San Miguel AG is −70.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of San Miguel AG (SAMI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of San Miguel AG is −2.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of San Miguel AG (SAMI)?
The operating margin of San Miguel AG is −49.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at San Miguel AG (SAMI)?
Revenue at San Miguel AG is growing −5.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +131%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at San Miguel AG (SAMI)?
Earnings per share at San Miguel AG are growing +18.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does San Miguel AG (SAMI) carry?
The net debt of San Miguel AG is 315B ARS (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 21.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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