SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (SCGP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of SCG Packaging Public Company Limited stock THB 16.12, price THB 26.00, that is 38.0% below the price, quality 59 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 10.71 THB – 63.23 THB · fair‑value band 12.09 THB – 20.14 THB · the 26.00 THB price screens above the 16.12 THB fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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SCG Packaging Public Company Limited provides consumer packaging solutions in Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, China, and internationally. It operates through Integrated Packaging Business, Fibrous Business, and Recycling Business and Corporate segments.
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The Integrated Packaging segment offers fiber packaging, such as corrugated containers; retail display packaging; packaging paper products, including containerboard, coated duplex board, and sack kraft; and plasterboard liners.
This segment also offers consumer and performance packaging comprising flexible packaging products; flexible packaging; rigid packaging products; and medical supplies and labware. Its Fibrous Business segment provides food service; pulp; and paper products.
The Recycling Business and Others segment offers packaging materials recycling and investment services. The company was formerly known as SCG Paper Public Company Limited and changed its name to SCG Packaging Public Company Limited in June 2015.
The company was founded in 1975 and is based in Bangkok, Thailand. SCG Packaging Public Company Limited is a subsidiary of The Siam Cement Public Company Limited.
Stock analysis
SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (SCGP) currently trades at 26.00 THB, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 16.12 THB, 38% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 21.42 THB per share, and 3 of the 25 models we run sit above the 26.00 THB price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 5.01 THB, and 22 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 12.09 THB (bear) to 20.14 THB (bull), the price of 26.00 THB sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
SCG Packaging Public Company Limited reported revenue of 124B THB in FY2025 versus 124B THB in FY2021, a compound +0.0%/yr. Reported net income was 4.1B THB in FY2025, compounding −16.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 111B THB (≈ $3.3B) Mid · P/E ratio 18.7 · P/S ratio 0.91 · EPS (TTM) 1.39 THB · Dividend yield 1.9% · Net margin 5.7% · Return on equity 8.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.5% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 79% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at −38%, SCGP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear12.09 THBFair Value 16.12 THBBull20.14 THB
Price 26.00 THB · Downside -38.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.7632 THB per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.8% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in THB ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in THB: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−6.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−8.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−8.8% vs 2.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 5%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+11.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Thailand: IMF forecast 1.2% a year to 2030, 1.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +9.8% a year for the price and +2.7% for the forecasts.
Compare SCG Packaging Public Company Limited with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaging & Containers · 261 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside−39.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)8.6% · Above median
Return on assets2.3% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)5.7% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)9.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)7.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.39× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)18.7× · Pricier than median
P/B1.52× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)0.91× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)13.3× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA7.0× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 23
FUTURE (revenue growth)35· sector 45
PAST (return on equity)34· sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)81· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)38· sector 47
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "SCG Packaging Public Company Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SCGP
Frequently asked questions
Is SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (SCGP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 16.12 THB versus a price of 26.00 THB, about 38% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SCGP?
Our model-based fair value for SCG Packaging Public Company Limited is 16.12 THB (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 26.00 THB.
What is the quality score of SCGP?
SCG Packaging Public Company Limited has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (SCGP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 16.12 THB (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario 12.09 THB, optimistic scenario 20.14 THB. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the SCG Packaging Public Company Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 16.12 THB, about 38% lower versus a price of 26.00 THB (overvalued). Cautious scenario 12.09 THB, optimistic scenario 20.14 THB. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (SCGP)?
SCG Packaging Public Company Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 124B THB (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does SCG Packaging Public Company Limited pay a dividend?
SCG Packaging Public Company Limited currently shows a dividend yield of 1.92% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (SCGP) and when is the ex-dividend date?
SCG Packaging Public Company Limited pays a dividend of 0.5 THB per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.9%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 4, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2021. The payout ratio is 36.0% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 3.97 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (SCGP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, SCG Packaging Public Company Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +11.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.0 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SCGP use?
Our models discount SCG Packaging Public Company Limited at 10.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.76, country premium for Thailand. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For SCG Packaging Public Company Limited that is +11.1 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (SCGP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at SCG Packaging Public Company Limited grew +6.0 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +11.1 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (SCGP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (+11.1 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (SCGP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.68 %: that much free cash flow SCG Packaging Public Company Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (SCGP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For SCG Packaging Public Company Limited it is 16.12 THB per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of 26.00 THB. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is SCG Packaging Public Company Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, SCGP trades above its calculated fair value: price 26.00 THB, fair value 16.12 THB, a gap of about −38% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SCGP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (26.00 THB); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (16.12 THB). For SCG Packaging Public Company Limited the two are 9.88 THB per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is SCG Packaging Public Company Limited worth?
The market values SCG Packaging Public Company Limited at about 111B THB (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is 26.00 THB; our models calculate a fair value of 16.12 THB per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SCGP?
Our models span a range for SCG Packaging Public Company Limited: cautious scenario 12.09 THB, base 16.12 THB, optimistic 20.14 THB per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price 26.00 THB). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SCGP?
SCG Packaging Public Company Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.7 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 16.12 THB is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2020 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 28.6. Other multiples: P/B 1.5, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 7.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (SCGP)?
Balance-sheet figures for SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 8.6%, debt of 0.39 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SCGP from its 52-week high?
SCG Packaging Public Company Limited trades at 26.00 THB, about 19% below its 52-week high of 32.00 THB and 79% above the low of 14.55 THB (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 16.12 THB is for.
Which stocks are comparable to SCG Packaging Public Company Limited?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Packaging Corporation, Amcor plc, International Paper Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is SCG Packaging Public Company Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price 26.00 THB, calculated fair value 16.12 THB (−38%), Quality Score 59/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SCGP calculated?
We run SCG Packaging Public Company Limited through 25 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 16.12 THB builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. SCG Packaging Public Company Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (SCGP)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was 26.00 THB. Our model-based fair value is 16.12 THB, about 38% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with SCG Packaging Public Company Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (20.14 THB). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (SCGP) come from?
Earnings per share at SCG Packaging Public Company Limited grew +3.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.9 %, EBIT margin −3.4 %, tax rate −0.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of SCG Packaging Public Company Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (SCGP)?
The market capitalisation of SCG Packaging Public Company Limited is 111B THB (≈ $3.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (SCGP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of SCG Packaging Public Company Limited is 0.91 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (SCGP)?
Earnings per share at SCG Packaging Public Company Limited are 1.39 THB (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (SCGP)?
The dividend yield of SCG Packaging Public Company Limited is 1.9% (payout 36.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (SCGP)?
The net margin of SCG Packaging Public Company Limited is 5.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (SCGP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of SCG Packaging Public Company Limited is 8.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (SCGP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of SCG Packaging Public Company Limited is 4.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (SCGP)?
The operating margin of SCG Packaging Public Company Limited is 9.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (SCGP)?
Revenue at SCG Packaging Public Company Limited is growing +7.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (SCGP)?
Earnings per share at SCG Packaging Public Company Limited are growing +114% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (SCGP) carry?
The net debt of SCG Packaging Public Company Limited is 59.3B THB (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 6, 2026