Sibek AB (publ) (SIBEK) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Sibek AB (publ) stock SEK 40.28, price SEK 45.40, that is 11.3% below the price, quality 75 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
36‑month range kr 14.97 – kr 58.06 · fair‑value band kr 25.65 – kr 66.02 · the kr 45.40 price screens above the kr 40.28 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.
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Sibek AB (publ) offers technical consultancy services for railway signaling systems in Sweden. It also provides connection management, construction site monitoring, construction inspection, and construction management services. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is based in Årsta, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Sibek AB (publ) (SIBEK) currently trades at kr 45.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 40.28, 11% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of kr 50.79 per share, and 6 of the 22 models we run sit above the kr 45.40 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 5.79, and 16 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 25.65 (bear) to kr 66.02 (bull), the price of kr 45.40 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 75/100 (high quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Sibek AB (publ) reported revenue of 181M SEK in FY2026 versus 107M SEK in FY2022, a compound +14.0%/yr. Reported net income was 24.7M SEK in FY2026, compounding +11.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap 461M SEK (≈ $46.7M) Micro · P/E ratio 19.9 · P/S ratio 2.59 · EPS (TTM) kr 2.28 · Dividend yield 3.7% · Net margin 13.2% · Return on equity 35.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 30.7% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 79 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at −11%, SIBEK screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bearkr 25.65Fair Value kr 40.28Bullkr 66.02
Price kr 45.40 · Downside -11.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 0.3067 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.3%
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+12.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.7%
Profit margin 2022 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 17%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +11.4% a year for the price.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Security & Protection Services · 105 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Sibek AB (publ) Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SIBEK
Frequently asked questions
Is Sibek AB (publ) (SIBEK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 40.28 versus a price of kr 45.40, about 11% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SIBEK?
Our model-based fair value for Sibek AB (publ) is kr 40.28 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 45.40.
What is the quality score of SIBEK?
Sibek AB (publ) has a Quality Score of 75/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sibek AB (publ) (SIBEK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 40.28 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 25.65, optimistic scenario kr 66.02. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sibek AB (publ) stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 40.28, about 11% lower versus a price of kr 45.40 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 25.65, optimistic scenario kr 66.02. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sibek AB (publ) (SIBEK)?
Sibek AB (publ) reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 178M SEK (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
Does Sibek AB (publ) pay a dividend?
Sibek AB (publ) currently shows a dividend yield of 3.74% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 9, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Sibek AB (publ) (SIBEK) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Sibek AB (publ) pays a dividend of kr 1.70 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.7%. The last ex-dividend date was Oct 9, 2026. The payout ratio is 74.6% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.96 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Sibek AB (publ) (SIBEK)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sibek AB (publ) would have to grow free cash flow by +13.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +14.0 % per year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SIBEK use?
Our models discount Sibek AB (publ) at 9.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Sibek AB (publ) that is +13.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Sibek AB (publ) (SIBEK) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Sibek AB (publ) grew +14.0 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +13.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Sibek AB (publ) (SIBEK) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Sibek AB (publ) (+13.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Sibek AB (publ) (SIBEK)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.58 %: that much free cash flow Sibek AB (publ) produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Sibek AB (publ) (SIBEK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sibek AB (publ) it is kr 40.28 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of kr 45.40. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Sibek AB (publ) stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, SIBEK trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 45.40, fair value kr 40.28, a gap of about −11% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SIBEK?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 45.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 40.28). For Sibek AB (publ) the two are kr 5.12 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sibek AB (publ) worth?
The market values Sibek AB (publ) at about 461M SEK (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is kr 45.40; our models calculate a fair value of kr 40.28 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SIBEK?
Our models span a range for Sibek AB (publ): cautious scenario kr 25.65, base kr 40.28, optimistic kr 66.02 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price kr 45.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SIBEK?
Sibek AB (publ) trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.9 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 40.28 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 7.5, P/S 2.6, EV/EBITDA 14.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sibek AB (publ) (SIBEK)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sibek AB (publ) (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 35.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 75/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SIBEK from its 52-week high?
Sibek AB (publ) trades at kr 45.40, about 22% below its 52-week high of kr 57.95 and 27% above the low of kr 35.62 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 40.28 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sibek AB (publ)?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Allegion plc, ADT Inc, Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co, MSA Safety Incorporated, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sibek AB (publ) stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price kr 45.40, calculated fair value kr 40.28 (−11%), Quality Score 75/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SIBEK calculated?
We run Sibek AB (publ) through 22 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of kr 40.28 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Sibek AB (publ) itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sibek AB (publ) (SIBEK)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was kr 45.40. Our model-based fair value is kr 40.28, about 11% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sibek AB (publ) right now?
A fairly wide model range (kr 25.65 to kr 66.02) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Sibek AB (publ)
How large is the market capitalisation of Sibek AB (publ) (SIBEK)?
The market capitalisation of Sibek AB (publ) is 461M SEK (≈ $46.7M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sibek AB (publ) (SIBEK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sibek AB (publ) is 2.59 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sibek AB (publ) (SIBEK)?
Earnings per share at Sibek AB (publ) are kr 2.28 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Sibek AB (publ) (SIBEK)?
The dividend yield of Sibek AB (publ) is 3.7% (payout 74.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Sibek AB (publ) (SIBEK)?
The net margin of Sibek AB (publ) is 13.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sibek AB (publ) (SIBEK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sibek AB (publ) is 35.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sibek AB (publ) (SIBEK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sibek AB (publ) is 30.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sibek AB (publ) (SIBEK)?
The operating margin of Sibek AB (publ) is 19.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sibek AB (publ) (SIBEK)?
Revenue at Sibek AB (publ) is growing −5.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sibek AB (publ) (SIBEK)?
Earnings per share at Sibek AB (publ) are growing −13.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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Broad data
Nov 9, 2026