Sibek AB (publ) (SIBEK) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Sibek AB (publ) SEK 35.76, price SEK 56.00, upside -36.1%, quality 75 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
35‑month range kr 15.55 – kr 60.32 · fair‑value band kr 23.26 – kr 62.66 · the kr 56.00 price screens above the kr 35.76 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Sibek AB (publ) offers technical consultancy services for railway signaling systems in Sweden. It also provides connection management, construction site monitoring, construction inspection, and construction management services. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is based in Årsta, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Sibek AB (publ) (SIBEK) currently trades at kr 56.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 35.76, implying the stock looks roughly 56.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of kr 50.79 per share, and 2 of the 20 models we run sit above the kr 56.00 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 4.04, and 18 of the 20 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 23.26 (bear) to kr 62.66 (bull), the price of kr 56.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 75/100 (high quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Sibek AB (publ) reported revenue of 181M SEK in FY2026 versus 107M SEK in FY2022, a compound +14.0%/yr. Reported net income was 24.7M SEK in FY2026, compounding +11.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap 569M SEK (≈ $57.3M) · P/E ratio 23.0 · P/S ratio 3.15 · EPS (TTM) kr 2.43 · Dividend yield 3.0% · Net margin 13.7% · Return on equity 41.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 30.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 54 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −36%, SIBEK screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 23.26Fair Value kr 35.76Bull kr 62.66
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 5 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 0.2960 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.3%
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+12.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.0%
Profit margin 2022 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 17%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+25.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +23.2% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Security & Protection Services · 116 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Sibek AB (publ) Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SIBEK
Frequently asked questions
Is Sibek AB (publ) (SIBEK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 35.76 versus a price of kr 56.00, about −36% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SIBEK?
Our model-based fair value for Sibek AB (publ) is kr 35.76 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 56.00.
What is the quality score of SIBEK?
Sibek AB (publ) has a Quality Score of 75/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sibek AB (publ) (SIBEK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 35.76 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 20 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 23.26, optimistic scenario kr 62.66. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sibek AB (publ) stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 35.76, about −36% upside versus a price of kr 56.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 23.26, optimistic scenario kr 62.66. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sibek AB (publ) (SIBEK)?
Sibek AB (publ) reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 181M SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Sibek AB (publ) pay a dividend?
Sibek AB (publ) currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.04% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Sibek AB (publ) (SIBEK)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sibek AB (publ) would have to grow free cash flow by +25.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +14.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SIBEK use?
Our models discount Sibek AB (publ) at 12.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Sibek AB (publ) that is +25.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Sibek AB (publ) (SIBEK) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Sibek AB (publ) grew +14.0 % a year. The price currently implies +25.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Sibek AB (publ) (SIBEK) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Sibek AB (publ) (+25.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Sibek AB (publ) (SIBEK)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.90 %: that much free cash flow Sibek AB (publ) produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Sibek AB (publ) (SIBEK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sibek AB (publ) it is kr 35.76 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 56.00. It is the blended result of 20 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sibek AB (publ) stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, SIBEK trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 56.00, fair value kr 35.76, a gap of about −36% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SIBEK?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 56.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 35.76). For Sibek AB (publ) the two are kr 20.24 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sibek AB (publ) worth?
The market values Sibek AB (publ) at about 569M SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 56.00; our models calculate a fair value of kr 35.76 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SIBEK?
Our models span a range for Sibek AB (publ): cautious scenario kr 23.26, base kr 35.76, optimistic kr 62.66 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 56.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SIBEK?
Sibek AB (publ) trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 35.76 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 9.9, P/S 3.3, EV/EBITDA 18.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sibek AB (publ) (SIBEK)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sibek AB (publ) (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 41.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 75/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SIBEK from its 52-week high?
Sibek AB (publ) trades at kr 56.00, about 7% below its 52-week high of kr 60.20 and 51% above the low of kr 37.00 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 35.76 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sibek AB (publ)?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Verisure plc, Allegion plc, Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co, MSA Safety Incorporated, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sibek AB (publ) stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 56.00, calculated fair value kr 35.76 (−36%), Quality Score 75/100, from 20 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SIBEK calculated?
We run Sibek AB (publ) through 20 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 35.76, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Sibek AB (publ) itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sibek AB (publ) (SIBEK)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was kr 56.00. Our model-based fair value is kr 35.76, about −36% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sibek AB (publ) right now?
A high-quality business (quality 75/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The model range is unusually wide (kr 23.26 to kr 62.66). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of Sibek AB (publ)
How large is the market capitalisation of Sibek AB (publ) (SIBEK)?
The market capitalisation of Sibek AB (publ) is 569M SEK (≈ $57.3M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sibek AB (publ) (SIBEK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sibek AB (publ) is 3.15 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sibek AB (publ) (SIBEK)?
Earnings per share at Sibek AB (publ) are kr 2.43 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Sibek AB (publ) (SIBEK)?
The dividend yield of Sibek AB (publ) is 3.0% (payout 70.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Sibek AB (publ) (SIBEK)?
The net margin of Sibek AB (publ) is 13.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sibek AB (publ) (SIBEK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sibek AB (publ) is 41.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sibek AB (publ) (SIBEK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sibek AB (publ) is 30.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sibek AB (publ) (SIBEK)?
The operating margin of Sibek AB (publ) is 10.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sibek AB (publ) (SIBEK)?
Revenue at Sibek AB (publ) is growing +6.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sibek AB (publ) (SIBEK)?
Earnings per share at Sibek AB (publ) are growing +88.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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