SM Energy Co (SM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of SM Energy Co stock $39.53, price $31.06, upside +27.3%, quality 39 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $13.79 – $49.16 · fair‑value band $21.35 – $51.40 · the $31.06 price screens below the $39.53 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 4, 2026.
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SM Energy Company, an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil, gas, and natural gas liquids in the United States.
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The company holds working interests in oil and gas producing wells in the Midland Basin, South Texas, Uinta Basin, and DJ Basin. The company was formerly known as St. Mary Land & Exploration Company and changed its name to SM Energy Company in May 2010.
SM Energy Company was founded in 1908 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.
Stock analysis
SM Energy Co (SM) currently trades at $31.06, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $39.53, implying the stock looks roughly 21% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $47.57 per share, and 13 of the 26 models we run sit above the $31.06 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $6.06, and 13 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $21.35 (bear) to $51.40 (bull), the price of $31.06 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
SM Energy Co reported revenue of $3.2B in FY2025 versus $2.6B in FY2021, a compound +5.0%/yr. Reported net income was $648M in FY2025, compounding +105.7%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $8.7B Mid · P/E ratio 5.5 · P/S ratio 1.05 · EPS (TTM) $5.64 · Dividend yield 2.6% · Net margin 20.2% · Return on equity 16.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 72 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 81% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 27%, SM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$21.35Fair Value $39.53Bull$51.40
Price $31.06 · Upside +27.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($4.09 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$31.16$66.13$128.7376
Residual Income$19.34$24.33$37.0875
EPV$17.01$21.10$24.6674
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$31.16$66.13$128.7376
Owner Earnings$23.28$51.23$101.2872
5Y Revenue Exit$11.94$23.19$37.8870
5Y EBITDA Exit$28.82$59.18$98.0772
5Y P/E Exit$22.58$45.87$72.9968
10Y Revenue Exit$17.64$30.79$50.1665
10Y EBITDA Exit$29.28$57.42$101.7365
10Y P/E Exit$25.12$47.57$80.2462
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$18.53$96.11$132.9264
Lynch FV$26.30$37.57$48.8461
PEG = 1.0$26.30$37.57$48.8457
EPV$17.01$21.10$24.6674
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$3.48$7.11$11.0566
DDM Multi-Stage$3.48$6.06$7.4867
Multiples
P/E Multiple$28.61$38.14$47.6863
P/S Multiple$11.93$15.91$19.8958
P/B Multiple$15.80$21.07$26.3455
EV/EBIT$17.81$26.45$35.0965
EV/EBITDA$30.28$43.08$55.8767
EV/Revenue$3.03$7.81$12.5850
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$10.07$13.49$20.1354
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$30.47$61.41$114.3874
Rev-Margin DCF$11.94$23.29$38.5270
Economic Profit
Residual Income$19.34$24.33$37.0875
ROIC Compounder$17.01$22.28$30.9571
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$32.56$46.51$60.4767
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
SaleRamiro G PeruDirector24,553 shares at $33.98$834,311May 21, 2026
Plus 18 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+18.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.6% a year
Revenue growth 35 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+83.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+80.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.80.6% vs −5.4%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−95% → 26%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 3.6%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+20.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
The revenue jump in 2026 (+149.1%) comes with 107% more shares (acquisition or merger paid in stock). Per share it is about +20.4%. The comparison above is unreliable in such a year.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +3.0% a year for the price and +17.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Merger synergies and G&A cuts strengthen balance-sheet resilience, yet the commodity E&P model stays exposed to price volatility that directly affects profitability.
Main risk: Stricter Colorado regulations on permitting, emissions or fees could raise compliance costs or limit drilling in the DJ Basin assets acquired via the Civitas merger, squeezing margins there.
Bull case: By successfully navigating Colorado permitting and adopting efficiency technologies the company could maintain or expand output while peers face similar constraints.
Bear case: If regulatory hurdles intensify and demand shifts accelerate, higher costs combined with weaker realizations could constrain production growth and free cash flow for years.
SM Energy has largely delivered on the Civitas merger synergies and cut recurring G&A costs. Free cash flow is being channeled first into debt reduction instead of buybacks to lower the interest burden over time. Will the resulting balance sheet resilience support higher long-term returns or simply leave the company more exposed if commodity prices weaken?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 237 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score39 · Below median
Fair Value upside+27.3% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)16.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets7.0% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)20.2% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)60.3% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)176.1% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)2.6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.48× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "SM Energy Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SM
Frequently asked questions
Is SM Energy Co (SM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $39.53 versus a price of $31.06, about +27% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SM?
Our model-based fair value for SM Energy Co is $39.53 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $31.06.
What is the quality score of SM?
SM Energy Co has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for SM Energy Co (SM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $39.53 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $21.35, optimistic scenario $51.40. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the SM Energy Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $39.53, about +27% upside versus a price of $31.06 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $21.35, optimistic scenario $51.40. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of SM Energy Co (SM)?
SM Energy Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.0B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does SM Energy Co pay a dividend?
SM Energy Co currently shows a dividend yield of 2.64% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into SM Energy Co (SM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, SM Energy Co would have to grow free cash flow by +5.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +22.9 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SM use?
Our models discount SM Energy Co at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.79, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For SM Energy Co that is +5.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has SM Energy Co (SM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at SM Energy Co grew +22.9 % a year. The price currently implies +5.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of SM Energy Co (SM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into SM Energy Co (+5.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of SM Energy Co (SM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.69 %: that much free cash flow SM Energy Co produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of SM Energy Co (SM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For SM Energy Co it is $39.53 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $31.06. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is SM Energy Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, SM trades below its calculated fair value: price $31.06, fair value $39.53, a gap of about +27% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($31.06); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($39.53). For SM Energy Co the two are $8.47 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is SM Energy Co worth?
The market values SM Energy Co at about $8.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $31.06; our models calculate a fair value of $39.53 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SM?
Our models span a range for SM Energy Co: cautious scenario $21.35, base $39.53, optimistic $51.40 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $31.06). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SM?
SM Energy Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.5 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $39.53 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2018 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 4.8. Other multiples: PEG 0.5, P/B 1.8, P/S 1.8, EV/EBITDA 3.3.
What is the PEG ratio of SM?
The PEG ratio of SM Energy Co is 0.52 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of SM Energy Co (SM)?
Balance-sheet figures for SM Energy Co (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 16.1%, debt of 0.48 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SM from its 52-week high?
SM Energy Co trades at $31.06, about 25% below its 52-week high of $41.29 and 81% above the low of $17.20 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $39.53 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to SM Energy Co?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is SM Energy Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $31.06, calculated fair value $39.53 (+27%), Quality Score 39/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SM calculated?
We run SM Energy Co through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $39.53, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. SM Energy Co currently trades 21% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of SM Energy Co (SM)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $31.06. Our model-based fair value is $39.53, about +27% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with SM Energy Co right now?
A fairly wide model range ($21.35 to $51.40) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of SM Energy Co
How large is the market capitalisation of SM Energy Co (SM)?
The market capitalisation of SM Energy Co is $8.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of SM Energy Co (SM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of SM Energy Co is 1.05 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of SM Energy Co (SM)?
Earnings per share at SM Energy Co are $5.64 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of SM Energy Co (SM)?
The dividend yield of SM Energy Co is 2.6% (payout 14.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of SM Energy Co (SM)?
The net margin of SM Energy Co is 20.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of SM Energy Co (SM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of SM Energy Co is 16.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of SM Energy Co (SM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of SM Energy Co is 13.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of SM Energy Co (SM)?
The operating margin of SM Energy Co is 60.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at SM Energy Co (SM)?
Revenue at SM Energy Co is growing +176% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at SM Energy Co (SM)?
Earnings per share at SM Energy Co are growing +154% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does SM Energy Co (SM) carry?
The net debt of SM Energy Co is $1.9B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 4, 2026