SM Energy Company (SM) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $6.7B
SM Energy Company
SM · US
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Share price +2.8% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 26% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid quality (50/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range ($24.22 to $59.99) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $13.87 – $49.45 · fair‑value band $24.22 – $59.99 · the $28.70 price screens below the $36.11 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
SM Energy Company (SM) currently trades at $28.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $36.11, implying the stock looks roughly 25.8% undervalued today. We read business quality at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, SM Energy Company generated revenue of $3.6B at a net margin of 3.6%. Revenue grew 73.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.3%. Net debt stands at $1.9B. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $24.22 (bear case) to $59.99 (bull case); at $28.70, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 66% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -26% fair-value upside, at 26%, SM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($54.42) versus Dividend Discount ($5.80). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
SM Energy Company, an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil, gas, and natural gas liquids in the United States. The company holds working interests in oil and gas producing wells in the Midland Basin, South Texas, Uinta Basin, and DJ Basin. The company was formerly known as St.
Full company description
SM Energy Company, an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil, gas, and natural gas liquids in the United States. The company holds working interests in oil and gas producing wells in the Midland Basin, South Texas, Uinta Basin, and DJ Basin. The company was formerly known as St. Mary Land & Exploration Company and changed its name to SM Energy Company in May 2010. SM Energy Company was founded in 1908 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
SM Energy Company reported revenue of $3.2B in FY2025 versus $2.6B in FY2021, a compound +5.0%/yr. Reported net income was $648M in FY2025, compounding +105.7%/yr from FY2021.
Watch SM: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- EnerCom Announces SM Energy as a Keynote Speaker at the 31st EnerCom Denver - The Energy Investment Conference, on August 19, 2026, in Denve
- Is Trending Stock SM Energy Company (SM) a Buy Now?
- Diamondback Energy, APA Corporation, SM Energy, Kosmos Energy, and CNX Resources Shares Are Soaring, What You Need To Know
- Is SM Energy (SM) Cheap On Earnings Hopes Or Is Its Valuation Already Priced In?
Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 316 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥28.97 | ¥32.55 | +12% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $109.04 | $91.79 | -16% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | $42.86 | $31.54 | -26% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $139.89 | $130.19 | -7% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $54.86 | $30.68 | -44% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $183.39 | $106.12 | -42% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $43.83 | $27.06 | -38% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$30.46 | A$20.71 | -32% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $48.85 | $42.85 | -12% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $415.70 | $79.20 | -81% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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