Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT (SMKL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT stock IDR 203, price IDR 132, upside +53.6%, quality 41 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 14 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 109.00 IDR – 506.22 IDR · fair‑value band 151.31 IDR – 218.47 IDR · the 132.00 IDR price screens below the 202.75 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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PT Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk operates as an integrated carton packaging and logistics solutions company in Indonesia. It offers corrugated carton, pre-print corrugated, offset printing, and rigid boxes. The company was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Tangerang, Indonesia.
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PT Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk operates as a subsidiary of Pt Satyamitra Investindo Pratama.
Stock analysis
Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT (SMKL) currently trades at 132.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 202.75 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 35% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 202.75 IDR per share, and 8 of the 14 models we run sit above the 132.00 IDR price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 32.24 IDR, and 6 of the 14 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 151.31 IDR (bear) to 218.47 IDR (bull), the price of 132.00 IDR sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT reported revenue of 1.9T IDR in FY2025 versus 2.1T IDR in FY2021, a compound −2.8%/yr. Reported net income was 41.5B IDR in FY2025, compounding −21.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 451B IDR (≈ $25.1M) Micro · P/E ratio 4.0 · P/S ratio 0.09 · EPS (TTM) 32.98 IDR · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin 2.2% · Return on equity 3.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.4% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 25 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at 54%, SMKL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear151.31 IDRFair Value 202.75 IDRBull218.47 IDR
Price 132.00 IDR · Upside +53.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (25.71 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.24/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−16.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−18.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.0.4% vs 3.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 6%
2025 sits 85% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Compare Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaging & Containers · 261 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+53.6% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)3.9% · Below median
Return on assets1.6% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)2.1% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)1.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)20.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.46× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
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Is Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT (SMKL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 202.75 IDR versus a price of 132.00 IDR, about +54% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SMKL?
Our model-based fair value for Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT is 202.75 IDR (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 132.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of SMKL?
Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT (SMKL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 202.75 IDR (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario 151.31 IDR, optimistic scenario 218.47 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 202.75 IDR, about +54% upside versus a price of 132.00 IDR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 151.31 IDR, optimistic scenario 218.47 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT (SMKL)?
Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.9T IDR (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT pay a dividend?
Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT currently shows a dividend yield of 2.27% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT (SMKL) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT pays a dividend of 3.00 IDR per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.3%. The last ex-dividend date was Jun 4, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2020. The payout ratio is 9.1% of earnings. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT (SMKL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT it is 202.75 IDR per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of 132.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models in 6 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, SMKL trades below its calculated fair value: price 132.00 IDR, fair value 202.75 IDR, a gap of about +54% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SMKL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (132.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (202.75 IDR). For Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT the two are 70.75 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT worth?
The market values Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT at about 451B IDR (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is 132.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 202.75 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SMKL?
Our models span a range for Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT: cautious scenario 151.31 IDR, base 202.75 IDR, optimistic 218.47 IDR per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price 132.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SMKL?
Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.0 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 202.75 IDR is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2019 to 2025), reported earnings: 17.0. Other multiples: P/B 0.4, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 5.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT (SMKL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 3.9%, debt of 0.46 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SMKL from its 52-week high?
Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT trades at 132.00 IDR, about 30% below its 52-week high of 189.59 IDR and 21% above the low of 109.00 IDR (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 202.75 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Packaging Corporation, Amcor plc, International Paper Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price 132.00 IDR, calculated fair value 202.75 IDR (+54%), Quality Score 41/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SMKL calculated?
We run Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT through 14 models from 6 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 202.75 IDR builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT currently trades 35% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT (SMKL)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was 132.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 202.75 IDR, about +54% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (41/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (151.31 IDR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT
How large is the market capitalisation of Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT (SMKL)?
The market capitalisation of Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT is 451B IDR (≈ $25.1M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT (SMKL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT is 0.09 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT (SMKL)?
Earnings per share at Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT are 32.98 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 4.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT (SMKL)?
The dividend yield of Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT is 2.3% (payout 9.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT (SMKL)?
The net margin of Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT is 2.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT (SMKL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT is 3.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT (SMKL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT is 5.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT (SMKL)?
The operating margin of Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT is 1.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT (SMKL)?
Revenue at Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT is growing +20.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT (SMKL)?
Earnings per share at Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT are growing +468% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT (SMKL) generate?
The free cash flow of Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT is −284B IDR (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT (SMKL) carry?
The net debt of Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk PT is 1.1T IDR (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 7, 2026