Snowflake Inc. (SNOW) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Snowflake Inc. stock $73.81, price $291, that is 74.6% below the price, quality 65 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 7 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $108.56 – $401.89 · fair‑value band $40.96 – $116.33 · the $290.60 price screens above the $73.81 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Snowflake Inc. provides a cloud-based data platform for various organizations in the United States and internationally.
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The company's platform includes artificial intelligence (AI) Data Cloud, which enables customers to consolidate data into a single source of truth to drive meaningful business insights, build data applications, and share data and data products, as well as applies AI for solving business problems.
It serves financial services, advertising, media and entertainment, retail and consumer goods, healthcare and life sciences, manufacturing, technology, telecom, travel and hospitality, and government and defense industries, as well as the public sector. the company has a collaboration with OpenAI, L.L.C. for the development of AI solutions for joint enterprise customers that deliver tangible return on investment.
The company was formerly known as Snowflake Computing, Inc. and changed its name to Snowflake Inc. in April 2019. Snowflake Inc. was incorporated in 2012 and is based in Menlo Park, California.
Stock analysis
Snowflake Inc. (SNOW) currently trades at $290.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $73.81, 75% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $73.81 per share, and 0 of the 7 models we run sit above the $290.60 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $41.53, and 7 of the 7 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $40.96 (bear) to $116.33 (bull), the price of $290.60 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Snowflake Inc. reported revenue of $4.7B in FY2026 versus $1.2B in FY2022, a compound +40.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$1.3B in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $104B Large · P/S ratio 20.7 · EPS (TTM) $−3.18 · Net margin −20.1% · Return on equity −48.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −13.4% · Operating margin −17.0% · Revenue (TTM) $5.4B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 15 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 140% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −75%, SNOW screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($0.9200 to $84.18). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear$40.96Fair Value $73.81Bull$116.33
Price $290.60 · Downside -74.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 9 officers or directors sold shares worth $1.1B and none bought.
SaleBenoit DagevilleDirector18× since Nov 13, 2025: 701,391 shares, avg. $291.81$204.7MNov 4, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleChristian KleinermanEVP, Product Management26× since Dec 1, 2025: 209,051 shares, avg. $283.70$59.3MNov 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleFrank SlootmanDirector22× since Dec 9, 2025: 3,335,894 shares, avg. $256.68$856.2MOct 19, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleMichael L SpeiserDirector14× since Nov 7, 2025: 608,892 shares, avg. $238.70$145.3MOct 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleJonathan Mead BeaulierChief Revenue Officer3× since Jun 22, 2026: 22,414 shares, avg. $292.61$6.6MSep 23, 2026
SaleEmily HoChief Accounting Officer5× since Dec 18, 2025: 6,427 shares, avg. $222.58$1.4MSep 16, 2026
SaleVivek RaghunathanSVP, Engineering4× since Dec 31, 2025: 23,429 shares, avg. $228.71$5.4MSep 16, 2026
SaleMark GarrettDirector2× since May 29, 2026: 150,000 shares, avg. $283.33$42.5MSep 4, 2026
SaleTeresa BriggsDirector687 shares at $254.87$175,099Jul 6, 202610b5-1 plan
Plus 70 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.59/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+29.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+51.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +23.4% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−91.9% (2021) → −30.6% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+39.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+25.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +35.7% a year for the price and +22.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Snowflake strengthens its agentic AI position through added technical expertise, but faces weaker business quality due to sustained net losses and limited evidence of durable advantage.
Main risk: Generative AI agents might query and govern enterprise data directly without Snowflake's warehouse, reducing demand for its core platform and pressuring usage-based revenue.
Bull case: Snowflake could deepen its role as the governed data foundation for AI agents by embedding more Cortex tools and partnerships, turning AI consumption into higher platform usage across customers.
Bear case: If AI agents mature to handle data tasks independently or rivals like Databricks dominate AI workloads, Snowflake's platform could see slower migration gains and commoditized demand for its core services.
Snowflake keeps adding deep technical expertise to strengthen its position in agentic AI, where data platforms must support autonomous agents that query and act across enterprise systems. The model benefits when partners embed applications natively and customers ramp usage over time rather than treating the platform as a one-time migration target. Our models currently see it as overvalued. Will AI workloads create durable increases in consumption, or will competition from larger clouds limit the upside?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 635 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Above median
Fair Value upside−74.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−14.6% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−20.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−17.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)35.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.19× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
P/S (12 months)19.20× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow93.2× · Priciest 25%
PEG8.41× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 28
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 40
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 20
HEALTH (low debt)41· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 30
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Snowflake Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SNOW
Frequently asked questions
Is Snowflake Inc. (SNOW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $73.81 versus a price of $290.60, about 75% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SNOW?
Our model-based fair value for Snowflake Inc. is $73.81 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $290.60.
What is the quality score of SNOW?
Snowflake Inc. has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Snowflake Inc. (SNOW)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $73.81 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $40.96, optimistic scenario $116.33. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Snowflake Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $73.81, about 75% lower versus a price of $290.60 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $40.96, optimistic scenario $116.33. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Snowflake Inc. (SNOW)?
Snowflake Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.4B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Snowflake Inc. (SNOW)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Snowflake Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +39.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +51.2 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SNOW use?
Our models discount Snowflake Inc. at 10.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.35, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Snowflake Inc. that is +39.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Snowflake Inc. (SNOW) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Snowflake Inc. grew +51.2 % a year. The price currently implies +39.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Snowflake Inc. (SNOW) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Snowflake Inc. (+39.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Snowflake Inc. (SNOW)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.14 %: that much free cash flow Snowflake Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Snowflake Inc. (SNOW)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Snowflake Inc. it is $73.81 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $290.60. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Snowflake Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, SNOW trades above its calculated fair value: price $290.60, fair value $73.81, a gap of about −75% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SNOW?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($290.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($73.81). For Snowflake Inc. the two are $216.79 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Snowflake Inc. worth?
The market values Snowflake Inc. at about $104B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $290.60; our models calculate a fair value of $73.81 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SNOW?
Our models span a range for Snowflake Inc.: cautious scenario $40.96, base $73.81, optimistic $116.33 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $290.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of SNOW?
The PEG ratio of Snowflake Inc. is 8.41 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Snowflake Inc. (SNOW)?
Balance-sheet figures for Snowflake Inc. (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity −48.1%, debt of 1.19 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SNOW from its 52-week high?
Snowflake Inc. trades at $290.60, about 21% below its 52-week high of $368.89 and 140% above the low of $121.11 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $73.81 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Snowflake Inc.?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Shopify Inc, Salesforce, Inc, ServiceNow, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Snowflake Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $290.60, calculated fair value $73.81 (−75%), Quality Score 65/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SNOW calculated?
We run Snowflake Inc. through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $73.81, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. Snowflake Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Snowflake Inc. (SNOW)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $290.60. Our model-based fair value is $73.81, about 75% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Snowflake Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($116.33). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($40.96 to $116.33). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Snowflake Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Snowflake Inc. (SNOW)?
The market capitalisation of Snowflake Inc. is $104B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Snowflake Inc. (SNOW)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Snowflake Inc. is 20.7 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Snowflake Inc. (SNOW)?
Earnings per share at Snowflake Inc. are $−3.18. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Snowflake Inc. (SNOW)?
The net margin of Snowflake Inc. is −20.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Snowflake Inc. (SNOW)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Snowflake Inc. is −48.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Snowflake Inc. (SNOW)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Snowflake Inc. is −13.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Snowflake Inc. (SNOW)?
The operating margin of Snowflake Inc. is −17.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Snowflake Inc. (SNOW)?
Revenue at Snowflake Inc. is growing +35.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +31.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does Snowflake Inc. (SNOW) hold?
Snowflake Inc. holds more cash than debt, $87.0M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Nov 5, 2026