Thuan Duc JSC (TDP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Thuan Duc JSC stock VND 24,111, price VND 26,950, that is 10.5% below the price, quality 47 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 12,214 VND – 32,455 VND · fair‑value band 21,542 VND – 29,737 VND · the 26,950 VND price screens above the 24,111 VND fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Thuan Duc Joint Stock Company, together with its subsidiary, produces and sells PP woven packaging products in Vietnam and internationally.
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The company offers PP shopping, PP woven shopping, PP non-woven shopping, RPET shopping, cooler, and other bags, as well as agricultural, feed, and fertilizer packaging products. It is also involved in trading plastic resins and other activities.
Thuan Duc Joint Stock Company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Hung Yen, Vietnam.
Stock analysis
Thuan Duc JSC (TDP) currently trades at 26,950 VND, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 24,111 VND, 11% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 48,742 VND per share, and 12 of the 24 models we run sit above the 26,950 VND price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at 15,928 VND, and 12 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 21,542 VND (bear) to 29,737 VND (bull), the price of 26,950 VND sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Thuan Duc JSC reported revenue of 4.8T VND in FY2025 versus 2.4T VND in FY2021, a compound +18.2%/yr. Reported net income was 96.6B VND in FY2025, compounding +2.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 2.7T VND (≈ $106M) Micro · P/E ratio 21.5 · P/S ratio 0.49 · EPS (TTM) 1,255 VND · Net margin 2.5% · Return on equity 11.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.8% (5-year average) · Operating margin 5.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −11%, TDP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear21,542 VNDFair Value 24,111 VNDBull29,737 VND
Price 26,950 VND · Downside -10.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (1,080 VND per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in VND ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in VND: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+8.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 6%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+31.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Vietnam: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +26.1% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaging & Containers · 261 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Below median
Fair Value upside−10.5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)11.5% · Above median
Return on assets2.2% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)2.5% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)5.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)30.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.21× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)21.5× · Pricier than median
P/B2.43× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)0.49× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)19.7× · Pricier than median
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As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 24,111 VND versus a price of 26,950 VND, about 11% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TDP?
Our model-based fair value for Thuan Duc JSC is 24,111 VND (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 26,950 VND.
What is the quality score of TDP?
Thuan Duc JSC has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Thuan Duc JSC (TDP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 24,111 VND (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 21,542 VND, optimistic scenario 29,737 VND. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Thuan Duc JSC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 24,111 VND, about 11% lower versus a price of 26,950 VND (overvalued). Cautious scenario 21,542 VND, optimistic scenario 29,737 VND. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Thuan Duc JSC (TDP)?
Thuan Duc JSC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 5.5T VND (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Thuan Duc JSC (TDP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Thuan Duc JSC would have to grow free cash flow by +31.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 14.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +28.2 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TDP use?
Our models discount Thuan Duc JSC at 14.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.21, country premium for Vietnam. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Thuan Duc JSC that is +31.3 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (14.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Thuan Duc JSC (TDP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Thuan Duc JSC grew +28.2 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +31.3 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Thuan Duc JSC (TDP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Thuan Duc JSC (+31.3 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Thuan Duc JSC (TDP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.21 %: that much free cash flow Thuan Duc JSC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (14.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Thuan Duc JSC (TDP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Thuan Duc JSC it is 24,111 VND per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of 26,950 VND. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Thuan Duc JSC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, TDP trades above its calculated fair value: price 26,950 VND, fair value 24,111 VND, a gap of about −11% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TDP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (26,950 VND); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (24,111 VND). For Thuan Duc JSC the two are 2,839 VND per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Thuan Duc JSC worth?
The market values Thuan Duc JSC at about 2.7T VND (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is 26,950 VND; our models calculate a fair value of 24,111 VND per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TDP?
Our models span a range for Thuan Duc JSC: cautious scenario 21,542 VND, base 24,111 VND, optimistic 29,737 VND per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price 26,950 VND). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TDP?
Thuan Duc JSC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.5 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 24,111 VND is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.4, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 5.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Thuan Duc JSC (TDP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Thuan Duc JSC (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 11.5%, debt of 0.21 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TDP from its 52-week high?
Thuan Duc JSC trades at 26,950 VND, about 17% below its 52-week high of 32,455 VND and 19% above the low of 22,598 VND (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 24,111 VND is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Thuan Duc JSC?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Packaging Corporation, Amcor plc, International Paper Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Thuan Duc JSC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price 26,950 VND, calculated fair value 24,111 VND (−11%), Quality Score 47/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TDP calculated?
We run Thuan Duc JSC through 24 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 24,111 VND builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Thuan Duc JSC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Thuan Duc JSC (TDP)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was 26,950 VND. Our model-based fair value is 24,111 VND, about 11% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Thuan Duc JSC right now?
The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Thuan Duc JSC
How large is the market capitalisation of Thuan Duc JSC (TDP)?
The market capitalisation of Thuan Duc JSC is 2.7T VND (≈ $106M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Thuan Duc JSC (TDP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Thuan Duc JSC is 0.49 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Thuan Duc JSC (TDP)?
Earnings per share at Thuan Duc JSC are 1,255 VND (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Thuan Duc JSC (TDP)?
The net margin of Thuan Duc JSC is 2.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Thuan Duc JSC (TDP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Thuan Duc JSC is 11.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Thuan Duc JSC (TDP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Thuan Duc JSC is 6.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Thuan Duc JSC (TDP)?
The operating margin of Thuan Duc JSC is 5.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Thuan Duc JSC (TDP)?
Revenue at Thuan Duc JSC is growing +30.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Thuan Duc JSC (TDP)?
Earnings per share at Thuan Duc JSC are growing +80.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Thuan Duc JSC (TDP) carry?
The net debt of Thuan Duc JSC is 1.8T VND (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 13.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 4, 2026