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Thuan Duc Joint Stock Company (TDP) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · VN · Market cap 2.7T VND

TD Thuan Duc Joint Stock Company TDP · VN
Price28,500 VND
Fair Value38,882 VND
Upside+36.4%
Quality46/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 2.2% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (7/13)
Narrow moat 38/100
Evidence: High Range 18,812 VND – 43,555 VND Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 26 days ago

Below-average quality, screening 36% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Solid quality (46/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range (18,812 VND to 43,555 VND) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

35,700 VND 13,436 VND Fair Value 38,882 VND Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 13,436 VND – 35,700 VND · fair‑value band 18,812 VND – 43,555 VND · the 28,500 VND price screens below the 38,882 VND fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Thuan Duc Joint Stock Company (TDP) currently trades at 28,500 VND, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 38,882 VND, implying the stock looks roughly 36.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Thuan Duc Joint Stock Company generated revenue of 5.2T VND at a net margin of 2.2%. Revenue grew 15.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.0%. Net debt stands at 1.8T VND. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 18,812 VND (bear case) to 43,555 VND (bull case); at 28,500 VND, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at 36%, TDP screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF 31,834 VND 56,646 VND 105,369 VND 80
Rev-Margin DCF 35,010 VND 61,625 VND 100,884 VND 74
ROIC Compounder 33,948 VND 41,983 VND 52,035 VND 72
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 32,788 VND 51,107 VND 103,647 VND 38
Owner Earnings 31,251 VND 60,274 VND 122,858 VND 31
5Y Revenue Exit 35,010 VND 60,039 VND 105,439 VND 39
5Y EBITDA Exit 33,874 VND 57,547 VND 97,531 VND 41
5Y P/E Exit 24,702 VND 39,128 VND 57,159 VND 38
10Y Revenue Exit 33,300 VND 61,815 VND 100,340 VND 36
10Y EBITDA Exit 33,569 VND 59,665 VND 106,591 VND 37
10Y P/E Exit 27,004 VND 42,313 VND 67,332 VND 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 7,008 VND 47,323 VND 66,318 VND 54
Lynch FV 13,873 VND 19,819 VND 25,765 VND 50
PEG = 1.0 13,873 VND 19,819 VND 25,765 VND 46
EPV 31,174 VND 35,122 VND 38,631 VND 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple 13,140 VND 17,521 VND 21,901 VND 63
P/S Multiple 13,140 VND 17,521 VND 21,901 VND 58
P/B Multiple 13,140 VND 17,521 VND 21,901 VND 55
EV/EBIT 38,537 VND 48,449 VND 58,361 VND 53
EV/EBITDA 34,818 VND 43,490 VND 52,163 VND 54
EV/Revenue 34,572 VND 45,617 VND 56,662 VND 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 5,957 VND 7,982 VND 11,914 VND 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 31,834 VND 56,646 VND 105,369 VND 80
Rev-Margin DCF 35,010 VND 61,625 VND 100,884 VND 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income 10,261 VND 11,210 VND 15,868 VND 61
ROIC Compounder 33,948 VND 41,983 VND 52,035 VND 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 17,614 VND 25,162 VND 32,711 VND 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (57,547 VND) versus Asset-Based (7,982 VND). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 5.2T VND
Revenue growth (YoY) +15.4%
Net margin 2.2%
Return on equity 10.0%
Free cash flow 138B VND FY2025
P/E ratio 25.7
More key figures
Operating margin 5.0%
EPS (TTM) 1,111 VND
EPS growth (YoY) +41.9%
Net debt 1.8T VND FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 46/100

Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41

Profitability 37
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 41
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 53
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 31
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 64
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 70
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 27
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 32
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 61
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Thuan Duc Joint Stock Company, together with its subsidiary, produces and sells PP woven packaging products in Vietnam and internationally. The company offers PP shopping, PP woven shopping, PP non-woven shopping, RPET shopping, cooler, and other bags, as well as agricultural, feed, and fertilizer packaging products.

Full company description

Thuan Duc Joint Stock Company, together with its subsidiary, produces and sells PP woven packaging products in Vietnam and internationally. The company offers PP shopping, PP woven shopping, PP non-woven shopping, RPET shopping, cooler, and other bags, as well as agricultural, feed, and fertilizer packaging products. It is also involved in trading plastic resins and other activities. Thuan Duc Joint Stock Company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Hung Yen, Vietnam.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Thuan Duc Joint Stock Company reported revenue of 4.8T VND in FY2025 versus 2.4T VND in FY2021, a compound +18.2%/yr. Reported net income was 96.6B VND in FY2025, compounding +2.7%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
4.8T VND
Latest YoY
+8.8%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+13.6%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+28.2%
Avg. growth/yr (6Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+25.9%
Revenue +18.2%/yr
FY21 2.4T VND
FY22 3.2T VND
FY23 3.8T VND
FY24 4.4T VND
FY25 4.8T VND
Net income +2.7%/yr
FY21 86.8B VND
FY22 93.7B VND
FY23 42.3B VND
FY24 93.9B VND
FY25 96.6B VND

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Thuan Duc Joint Stock Company · Fair Value
38,882 VND +36%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Thuan Duc Joint Stock Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TDP

Peer Group

Packaging & Containers · 272 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 46 · Below median
Fair Value upside +36% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 10% · Above median
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 5% · Below median
Revenue growth 37% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.21× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 25.6× · Pricier than median
P/B 2.43× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.53× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 0.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 5.6× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 82 · sector 9
FUTURE 100 · sector 0
PAST 40 · sector 21
HEALTH 90 · sector 93
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 42

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Packaging & Containers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Stora Enso Oyj STER kr 101.90 kr 126.39 +24%
ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology Co 002831 ¥29.10 ¥20.88 -28%
SCG Packaging Public Company SCGP 29.00 THB 16.12 THB -44%
AblePrint Technology Co 7734 2,850 TWD 661.69 TWD -77%
PT Fajar Surya Wisesa Tbk, FASW 5,312 IDR 1,194 IDR -78%
Taiwan Hon Chuan Enterprise Co 9939 132.50 TWD 127.06 TWD -4%
Time Technoplast Limited TIMETECHNO ₹206.82 ₹161.42 -22%
EPL Limited 500135 ₹222.25 ₹111.65 -50%
Ton Yi Industrial Corp 9907 15.15 TWD 23.17 TWD +53%
Dongwon Systems Corporation 014820 19,330 KRW 31,473 KRW +63%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Thuan Duc Joint Stock Company (TDP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 15, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 38,882 VND versus a price of 28,500 VND, about +36% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TDP?
Our model-based fair value for Thuan Duc Joint Stock Company is 38,882 VND (as of Jul 15, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 28,500 VND.
What is the quality score of TDP?
Thuan Duc Joint Stock Company has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Thuan Duc Joint Stock Company (TDP)?
Thuan Duc Joint Stock Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 5.2T VND (latest available figure, as of Jul 15, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of TDP?
The net profit margin of Thuan Duc Joint Stock Company is about 2.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 2.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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