Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. (TKUGF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 11, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. stock $64.78, price $48.13, upside +34.6%, quality 68 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
28‑month range $27.88 – $48.54 · fair‑value band $44.16 – $100.54 · the $48.13 price screens below the $64.78 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 13, 2026.
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Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells construction machinery in Japan and internationally. The company offers mini and hydraulic excavators, crawler loader, crawler carrier, deep foundation excavator, and other construction machinery.
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Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 1963 and is headquartered in Hanishina, Japan.
Stock analysis
Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. (TKUGF) currently trades at $48.13, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $64.78, implying the stock looks roughly 26% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $79.97 per share, and 20 of the 26 models we run sit above the $48.13 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $19.72, and 6 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $44.16 (bear) to $100.54 (bull), the price of $48.13 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. reported revenue of ¥225B in FY2026 versus ¥141B in FY2022, a compound +12.5%/yr. Reported net income was ¥28.3B in FY2026, compounding +20.6%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $2.2B Mid · P/E ratio 11.9 · P/S ratio 1.49 · EPS (TTM) $4.05 · Dividend yield 2.7% · Net margin 12.5% · Return on equity 16.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.6% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 69 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 48% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 35%, TKUGF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$44.16Fair Value $64.78Bull$100.54
Price $48.13 · Upside +34.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.94 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.9%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+23.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+20.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.7%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 17%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+1.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −0.4% a year for the price and +6.4% for the forecasts.
Compare Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 150 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+34.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)16.0% · Above median
Return on assets12.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)12.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)15.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)19.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.7% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)11.9× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.90× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)1.46× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)18.1× · Pricier than median
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Is Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. (TKUGF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $64.78 versus a price of $48.13, about +35% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TKUGF?
Our model-based fair value for Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. is $64.78 (as of Nov 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $48.13.
What is the quality score of TKUGF?
Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. (TKUGF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $64.78 (as of Nov 13, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $44.16, optimistic scenario $100.54. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $64.78, about +35% upside versus a price of $48.13 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $44.16, optimistic scenario $100.54. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. (TKUGF)?
Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥244B (latest available figure, as of Nov 13, 2026).
Does Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. pay a dividend?
Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of 2.73% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 13, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. (TKUGF) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. pays a dividend of $1.31 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.7%. The next ex-dividend date is Feb 25, 2027. The payout ratio is 34.3% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 2.02 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. (TKUGF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. would have to grow free cash flow by +1.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.0 % per year. As of Nov 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TKUGF use?
Our models discount Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.53, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. that is +1.7 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. (TKUGF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. grew +15.0 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +1.7 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. (TKUGF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. (+1.7 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. (TKUGF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.53 %: that much free cash flow Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. (TKUGF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. it is $64.78 per share (as of Nov 13, 2026), against a price of $48.13. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 13, 2026, TKUGF trades below its calculated fair value: price $48.13, fair value $64.78, a gap of about +35% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TKUGF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($48.13); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($64.78). For Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. the two are $16.65 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. worth?
The market values Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. at about $2.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 13, 2026). Per share that is $48.13; our models calculate a fair value of $64.78 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TKUGF?
Our models span a range for Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd.: cautious scenario $44.16, base $64.78, optimistic $100.54 per share (as of Nov 13, 2026, price $48.13). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TKUGF?
Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.9 (as of Nov 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $64.78 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.9, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 7.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. (TKUGF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. (as of Nov 13, 2026): return on equity 16.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TKUGF from its 52-week high?
Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. trades at $48.13, about 1% below its 52-week high of $48.54 and 48% above the low of $32.57 (as of Nov 11, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $64.78 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Caterpillar Inc, Deere & Company, PACCAR Inc, Daimler Truck Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 13, 2026: price $48.13, calculated fair value $64.78 (+35%), Quality Score 68/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TKUGF calculated?
We run Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $64.78 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9% above its aggregate fair value. Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. currently trades 26% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. (TKUGF)?
The closing price on Nov 11, 2026 was $48.13. Our model-based fair value is $64.78, about +35% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. right now?
Solid quality (68/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($44.16 to $100.54) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. (TKUGF)?
The market capitalisation of Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. is $2.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. (TKUGF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. is 1.49 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. (TKUGF)?
Earnings per share at Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. are $4.05 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. (TKUGF)?
The dividend yield of Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. is 2.7% (payout 32.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. (TKUGF)?
The net margin of Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. is 12.5% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. (TKUGF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. is 16.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. (TKUGF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. is 15.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. (TKUGF)?
The operating margin of Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. is 15.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. (TKUGF)?
Revenue at Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. is growing +19.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. (TKUGF)?
Earnings per share at Takeuchi Mfg. Co., Ltd. are growing +11.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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Broad data
Nov 13, 2026