Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited (UKEM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited stock THB 0.65, price THB 1.13, that is 42.5% below the price, quality 64 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 0.3654 THB – 4.19 THB · fair‑value band 0.5600 THB – 0.8900 THB · the 1.13 THB price screens above the 0.6500 THB fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.
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Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited engages in the import and distribution of chemical products in Thailand. It operates through three segments: Commodity Chemicals, Specialty Chemicals, and Other.
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The company offers solvents, including oxygenated alcohols, glycols, ketones, esters, and glycol ethers; aromatic and non-dearomatized, saturated, dearomatized, and isoparaffinic hydrocarbons; liquid monomers; and branched alcohols and neo acids, comprising fatty alcohols and acids.
It also provides polypropylene, such as homopolymer, block copolymer, and performance polymer, and other plastic products, comprising polyethylene terephthalate, biodegradable plastic, bio-plastic, and low-density polyethylene resin.
In addition, the company offers solvents for plastic packaging, printing ink, and cleaning agents, as well as formulation consultation services.
Further, it engages in the distribution of plastic pellets, lubricants, computer equipment, and electronic equipment; the provision of computer system services; the manufacturing and selling of all types of products from coconut food processing; and the provision of short-term credit facilities for the car selling business.
Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.
Stock analysis
Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited (UKEM) currently trades at 1.13 THB, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 0.6500 THB, 42% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 1.90 THB per share, and 10 of the 24 models we run sit above the 1.13 THB price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 0.0850 THB, and 14 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 0.5600 THB (bear) to 0.8900 THB (bull), the price of 1.13 THB sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited reported revenue of 2.6B THB in FY2025 versus 3.0B THB in FY2021, a compound −3.5%/yr. Reported net income was 54.4M THB in FY2025, compounding −17.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 1.3B THB (≈ $39.3M) Micro · P/E ratio 3.5 · P/S ratio 0.43 · EPS (TTM) 0.3200 THB · Dividend yield 1.3% · Net margin 12.2% · Return on equity 38.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.1% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 71 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 109% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at −42%, UKEM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear0.5600 THBFair Value 0.6500 THBBull0.8900 THB
Price 1.13 THB · Downside -42.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.2615 THB per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.68/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.5%
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in THB (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in THB: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−10.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−12.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−12.1% vs −1.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 3%
2025 sits 793% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.4%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−2.7%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Thailand: IMF forecast 1.2% a year to 2030, 1.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −3.9% a year for the price.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Chemicals · 337 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−40.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)38.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets3.2% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)12.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)30.3% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)42.9% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.3% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/UKEM
Frequently asked questions
Is Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited (UKEM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 0.6500 THB versus a price of 1.13 THB, about 42% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of UKEM?
Our model-based fair value for Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited is 0.6500 THB (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 1.13 THB.
What is the quality score of UKEM?
Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited (UKEM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 0.6500 THB (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 0.5600 THB, optimistic scenario 0.8900 THB. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 0.6500 THB, about 42% lower versus a price of 1.13 THB (overvalued). Cautious scenario 0.5600 THB, optimistic scenario 0.8900 THB. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited (UKEM)?
Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.0B THB (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
Does Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited pay a dividend?
Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited currently shows a dividend yield of 1.33% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 9, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited (UKEM) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited pays a dividend of 0.015 THB per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.3%. The last ex-dividend date was Apr 17, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2006. The payout ratio is 4.7% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 12.36 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited (UKEM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited would have to grow free cash flow by -2.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.7 % per year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of UKEM use?
Our models discount Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited at 11.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), country premium for Thailand. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited that is -2.7 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited (UKEM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited grew +0.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -2.7 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited (UKEM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited (-2.7 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited (UKEM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.30 %: that much free cash flow Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited (UKEM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited it is 0.6500 THB per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of 1.13 THB. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, UKEM trades above its calculated fair value: price 1.13 THB, fair value 0.6500 THB, a gap of about −42% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of UKEM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (1.13 THB); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (0.6500 THB). For Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited the two are 0.4800 THB per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited worth?
The market values Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited at about 1.3B THB (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is 1.13 THB; our models calculate a fair value of 0.6500 THB per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about UKEM?
Our models span a range for Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited: cautious scenario 0.5600 THB, base 0.6500 THB, optimistic 0.8900 THB per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price 1.13 THB). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of UKEM?
Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 3.5 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 0.6500 THB is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2018 to 2025), reported earnings: 22.0. Other multiples: PEG 0.7, P/B 1.6, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 2.2.
What is the PEG ratio of UKEM?
The PEG ratio of Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited is 0.69 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 9, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited (UKEM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 38.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is UKEM from its 52-week high?
Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited trades at 1.13 THB, about 33% below its 52-week high of 1.68 THB and 109% above the low of 0.5402 THB (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 0.6500 THB is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value BASF SE, Saudi Basic Industries Corporation, Dow Inc, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price 1.13 THB, calculated fair value 0.6500 THB (−42%), Quality Score 64/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of UKEM calculated?
We run Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited through 24 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 0.6500 THB builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited (UKEM)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was 1.13 THB. Our model-based fair value is 0.6500 THB, about 42% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (0.8900 THB). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited (UKEM) come from?
Earnings per share at Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited grew −13.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −0.1 %, EBIT margin −9.9 %, tax rate −2.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited (UKEM)?
The market capitalisation of Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited is 1.3B THB (≈ $39.3M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited (UKEM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited is 0.43 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited (UKEM)?
Earnings per share at Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited are 0.3200 THB (price ÷ EPS = P/E 3.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited (UKEM)?
The dividend yield of Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited is 1.3% (payout 4.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited (UKEM)?
The net margin of Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited is 12.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited (UKEM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited is 38.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited (UKEM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited is 3.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited (UKEM)?
The operating margin of Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited is 30.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited (UKEM)?
Revenue at Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited is growing +42.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited (UKEM)?
Earnings per share at Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited are growing +15.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited (UKEM) carry?
The net debt of Union Petrochemical Public Company Limited is 428M THB (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 9, 2026