UMH Properties Inc (UMH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of UMH Properties Inc stock $10.83, price $14.92, that is 27.4% below the price, quality 39 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $11.40 – $21.51 · fair‑value band $5.06 – $20.25 · the $14.92 price screens above the $10.83 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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UMH Properties, Inc. is a public equity REIT that owns and operates 145 manufactured home communities. It contains approximately 27,100 developed homesites, of which 11,200 contain rental homes, and over 1,000 self-storage units.
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These communities are in New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Alabama, South Carolina, Florida and Georgia.
Included in the 145 communities are two communities in Florida, containing 363 sites, and one community in Pennsylvania, containing 113 sites, that UMH has an ownership interest in and operates through its joint ventures with Nuveen Real Estate.
UMH Properties, Inc. was incorporated in 1968 in Maryland and is based in Freehold, New Jersey.
Stock analysis
UMH Properties Inc (UMH) currently trades at $14.92, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.83, 27% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $14.20 per share, and 1 of the 15 models we run sit above the $14.92 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $7.03, and 14 of the 15 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $5.06 (bear) to $20.25 (bull), the price of $14.92 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
UMH Properties Inc reported revenue of $262M in FY2025 versus $186M in FY2021, a compound +8.9%/yr. Reported net income was $26.5M in FY2025, compounding −15.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.3B Small · P/E ratio 124.3 · P/S ratio 12.6 · EPS (TTM) $0.1200 · Dividend yield 6.0% · Net margin 10.1% · Return on equity 3.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.6% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −13% fair-value upside, at −27%, UMH screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$5.06Fair Value $10.83Bull$20.25
Price $14.92 · Downside -27.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors bought shares worth $57,295, most recently on Nov 4, 2026. Buying cluster
BuyWilliam Edward MitchellDirector4× since Nov 24, 2025: 4,733 shares, avg. $15.06$71,295Nov 4, 2026
BuyJeffrey A CarusDirector3× since Apr 1, 2026: 1,500 shares, avg. $15.39$23,090Nov 4, 2026
BuyMatthew I HirschDirector500 shares at $14.48$7,240Mar 27, 2026
BuyKenneth K Quigley JrDirector2,500 shares at $14.34$35,850Mar 25, 2026
SaleWilliam Edward MitchellDirector2,000 shares at $15.00$30,000Nov 10, 2025
Plan buyKevin S. MillerEVP, CFO, Treasurer5× since Jun 15, 2026: 336 shares, avg. $14.89$5,001Oct 15, 2026
Plan buyWilliam Edward MitchellDirector4× since Jul 15, 2026: 267 shares, avg. $14.96$4,001Oct 15, 2026
Plan buyJeffrey A CarusDirector66 shares at $15.25$1,000Dec 15, 2025
Plus 25 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.4% a year
Revenue growth 37 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+1.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−14.8% vs 5.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.17% → 17%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+17.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +14.9% a year for the price and +4.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (88 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Residential · 41 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−27.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)3.4% · Above median
Return on assets1.6% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)11.6% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)18.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)7.7% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)6.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.84× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Residential median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)124.3× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.41× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)4.71× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)15.6× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA16.1× · Cheaper than median
PEG0.72× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 15
FUTURE (revenue growth)39· sector 9
PAST (return on equity)14· sector 14
HEALTH (low debt)58· sector 58
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 77
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is UMH Properties Inc (UMH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $10.83 versus a price of $14.92, about 27% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of UMH?
Our model-based fair value for UMH Properties Inc is $10.83 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $14.92.
What is the quality score of UMH?
UMH Properties Inc has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for UMH Properties Inc (UMH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $10.83 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.06, optimistic scenario $20.25. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the UMH Properties Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $10.83, about 27% lower versus a price of $14.92 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $5.06, optimistic scenario $20.25. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of UMH Properties Inc (UMH)?
UMH Properties Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $271M (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does UMH Properties Inc pay a dividend?
UMH Properties Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 6.03% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
How much is the dividend of UMH Properties Inc (UMH) and when is the ex-dividend date?
UMH Properties Inc pays a dividend of $0.9 per share a year, a dividend yield of 6.0%. The next ex-dividend date is Nov 16, 2026, with payment on Dec 15, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1990. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.07 times. Our assessment: Payout strained. The dividend exceeds reported earnings (though reported profit is often depressed by one-off charges), and free cash flow only just covers it (or coverage is unknown). Not an emergency, but little room for error.
What growth is priced into UMH Properties Inc (UMH)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, UMH Properties Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +17.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.9 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of UMH use?
Our models discount UMH Properties Inc at 11.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.97, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For UMH Properties Inc that is +17.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has UMH Properties Inc (UMH) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at UMH Properties Inc grew +9.9 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +17.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of UMH Properties Inc (UMH) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into UMH Properties Inc (+17.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of UMH Properties Inc (UMH)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.42 %: that much free cash flow UMH Properties Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of UMH Properties Inc (UMH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For UMH Properties Inc it is $10.83 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $14.92. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is UMH Properties Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, UMH trades above its calculated fair value: price $14.92, fair value $10.83, a gap of about −27% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of UMH?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($14.92); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($10.83). For UMH Properties Inc the two are $4.09 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is UMH Properties Inc worth?
The market values UMH Properties Inc at about $1.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $14.92; our models calculate a fair value of $10.83 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about UMH?
Our models span a range for UMH Properties Inc: cautious scenario $5.06, base $10.83, optimistic $20.25 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $14.92). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of UMH?
UMH Properties Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 124.3 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $10.83 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 44.9. Other multiples: PEG 0.7, P/B 1.4, P/S 4.7, EV/EBITDA 16.1.
What is the PEG ratio of UMH?
The PEG ratio of UMH Properties Inc is 0.72 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of UMH Properties Inc (UMH)?
Balance-sheet figures for UMH Properties Inc (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 3.4%, debt of 0.84 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is UMH from its 52-week high?
UMH Properties Inc trades at $14.92, about 10% below its 52-week high of $16.66 and 9% above the low of $13.74 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $10.83 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to UMH Properties Inc?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Essex Property Trust, Inc, Invitation Homes, Sun Communities, Inc, Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is UMH Properties Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $14.92, calculated fair value $10.83 (−27%), Quality Score 39/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of UMH calculated?
We run UMH Properties Inc through 16 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $10.83 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. UMH Properties Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of UMH Properties Inc (UMH)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $14.92. Our model-based fair value is $10.83, about 27% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with UMH Properties Inc right now?
Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($5.06 to $20.25). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of UMH Properties Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of UMH Properties Inc (UMH)?
The market capitalisation of UMH Properties Inc is $1.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of UMH Properties Inc (UMH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of UMH Properties Inc is 12.6 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of UMH Properties Inc (UMH)?
Earnings per share at UMH Properties Inc are $0.1200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 124.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of UMH Properties Inc (UMH)?
The dividend yield of UMH Properties Inc is 6.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of UMH Properties Inc (UMH)?
The net margin of UMH Properties Inc is 10.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of UMH Properties Inc (UMH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of UMH Properties Inc is 3.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of UMH Properties Inc (UMH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of UMH Properties Inc is 2.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of UMH Properties Inc (UMH)?
The operating margin of UMH Properties Inc is 18.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at UMH Properties Inc (UMH)?
Revenue at UMH Properties Inc is growing +7.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at UMH Properties Inc (UMH)?
Earnings per share at UMH Properties Inc are growing +66.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does UMH Properties Inc (UMH) carry?
The net debt of UMH Properties Inc is $689M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 4, 2026