VAT Group AG (VACN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of VAT Group AG stock CHF 265, price CHF 521, that is 49.2% below the price, quality 81 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range CHF 186.17 – CHF 709.60 · fair‑value band CHF 184.08 – CHF 332.90 · the CHF 521.20 price screens above the CHF 264.90 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
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VAT Group AG, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of vacuum and gas inlet valves, multi-valve modules, motion components, and edge-welded metal bellows. It operates in two segments, Valves and Global Service.
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The Valves segment offers vacuum valves for the semiconductor, displays, photovoltaics, and vacuum coating industries, as well as for the industrial and research sectors. The Global Service segment provides spare parts, repairs, and upgrades, as well as support services.
The company offers vacuum isolation, gate, angle, inline, check, cylinder, and all-metal valves; vacuum pendulum and butterfly valves; 3 position, multi-value, and vacuum control valves; vacuum transfer valves and doors; pressure relief/venting, gas dosing, and fast closing/beam stopper valves; and flange connections, bellows, and vacuum modules.
It has operations in Switzerland, rest of Europe, the United States, Japan, Korea, Singapore, China, rest of Asia, and internationally. VAT Group AG was founded in 1965 and is headquartered in Solothurn, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
VAT Group AG (VACN) currently trades at CHF 521.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is CHF 264.90, 49% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of CHF 148.96 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the CHF 521.20 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at CHF 47.25, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: CHF 184.08 (bear) to CHF 332.90 (bull), the price of CHF 521.20 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 81/100 (high quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
VAT Group AG reported revenue of CHF 1.1B in FY2025 versus CHF 901M in FY2021, a compound +4.5%/yr. Reported net income was CHF 214M in FY2025, compounding −0.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap CHF 18.3B Large · P/E ratio 75.4 · P/S ratio 17.8 · EPS (TTM) CHF 6.91 · Dividend yield 1.3% · Net margin 20.2% · Return on equity 30.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 22.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 82 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 70% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −47% fair-value upside, at −49%, VACN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (CHF 7.96 to CHF 204.32). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
BearCHF 184.08Fair Value CHF 264.90BullCHF 332.90
Price CHF 521.20 · Downside -49.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.1% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+12.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+10.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.10.9% vs 17.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.25% → 25%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+33.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+37.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Switzerland: IMF forecast 0.6% a year to 2030, 0.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +32.8% a year for the price and +36.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (38 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Record semiconductor orders driven by AI demand form the main strength, while thin evidence for durable advantage beyond financial metrics remains the chief weakness.
Main risk: Tightening export controls could cut off access to Chinese customers, which account for around 30 percent of sales, hitting revenue from semiconductor valves.
Bull case: By expanding production in Malaysia and Romania while securing more specification wins with global OEMs, VAT could offset any China restrictions through stronger growth in other markets.
Bear case: If export controls sharply reduce China sales without quick replacement, revenue from semiconductor valves could decline materially as the company loses a key growth driver.
VAT Group faces record semiconductor orders fueled by AI capacity builds, yet must rapidly scale production and hire to turn the backlog into revenue. Our models see the shares as overvalued. Will the company deliver higher sales and margins from this demand surge, or will ramp-up delays limit the upside?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 807 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score81 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−49.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)30.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets16.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)20.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)21.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−8.3% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.06× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)75.4× · Priciest 25%
P/B23.11× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)17.84× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow77.4× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA67.5× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.23× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 31
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)97· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)27· sector 29
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "VAT Group AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VACN
Frequently asked questions
Is VAT Group AG (VACN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of CHF 264.90 versus a price of CHF 521.20, about 49% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of VACN?
Our model-based fair value for VAT Group AG is CHF 264.90 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: CHF 521.20.
What is the quality score of VACN?
VAT Group AG has a Quality Score of 81/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for VAT Group AG (VACN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of CHF 264.90 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario CHF 184.08, optimistic scenario CHF 332.90. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the VAT Group AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at CHF 264.90, about 49% lower versus a price of CHF 521.20 (overvalued). Cautious scenario CHF 184.08, optimistic scenario CHF 332.90. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of VAT Group AG (VACN)?
VAT Group AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about CHF 1.0B (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
Does VAT Group AG pay a dividend?
VAT Group AG currently shows a dividend yield of 1.34% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into VAT Group AG (VACN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, VAT Group AG would have to grow free cash flow by +33.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.2 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of VACN use?
Our models discount VAT Group AG at 10.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.48, country premium for Switzerland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For VAT Group AG that is +33.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has VAT Group AG (VACN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at VAT Group AG grew +9.2 % a year. The price currently implies +33.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of VAT Group AG (VACN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into VAT Group AG (+33.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of VAT Group AG (VACN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.52 %: that much free cash flow VAT Group AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of VAT Group AG (VACN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For VAT Group AG it is CHF 264.90 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of CHF 521.20. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is VAT Group AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, VACN trades above its calculated fair value: price CHF 521.20, fair value CHF 264.90, a gap of about −49% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VACN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (CHF 521.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (CHF 264.90). For VAT Group AG the two are CHF 256.30 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is VAT Group AG worth?
The market values VAT Group AG at about CHF 18.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is CHF 521.20; our models calculate a fair value of CHF 264.90 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VACN?
Our models span a range for VAT Group AG: cautious scenario CHF 184.08, base CHF 264.90, optimistic CHF 332.90 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price CHF 521.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of VACN?
VAT Group AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 75.4 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of CHF 264.90 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 50.2. Other multiples: PEG 1.2, P/B 23.1, P/S 17.8, EV/EBITDA 67.5.
What is the PEG ratio of VACN?
The PEG ratio of VAT Group AG is 1.23 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of VAT Group AG (VACN)?
Balance-sheet figures for VAT Group AG (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 30.1%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 81/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VACN from its 52-week high?
VAT Group AG trades at CHF 521.20, about 27% below its 52-week high of CHF 709.60 and 70% above the low of CHF 306.65 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of CHF 264.90 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to VAT Group AG?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value SIE, GE Vernova Inc, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is VAT Group AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price CHF 521.20, calculated fair value CHF 264.90 (−49%), Quality Score 81/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VACN calculated?
We run VAT Group AG through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of CHF 264.90, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. VAT Group AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of VAT Group AG (VACN)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was CHF 521.20. Our model-based fair value is CHF 264.90, about 49% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with VAT Group AG right now?
A high-quality business (quality 81/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (CHF 332.90). The favourable scenario is already priced in. A fairly wide model range (CHF 184.08 to CHF 332.90) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of VAT Group AG (VACN) come from?
Earnings per share at VAT Group AG grew +19.3 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.5 %, EBIT margin +1.0 %, tax rate +2.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +8.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of VAT Group AG
How large is the market capitalisation of VAT Group AG (VACN)?
The market capitalisation of VAT Group AG is CHF 18.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of VAT Group AG (VACN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of VAT Group AG is 17.8 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of VAT Group AG (VACN)?
Earnings per share at VAT Group AG are CHF 6.91 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 75.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of VAT Group AG (VACN)?
The dividend yield of VAT Group AG is 1.3% (payout 101%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of VAT Group AG (VACN)?
The net margin of VAT Group AG is 20.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of VAT Group AG (VACN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of VAT Group AG is 30.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of VAT Group AG (VACN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of VAT Group AG is 22.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of VAT Group AG (VACN)?
The operating margin of VAT Group AG is 21.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at VAT Group AG (VACN)?
Revenue at VAT Group AG is growing −8.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at VAT Group AG (VACN)?
Earnings per share at VAT Group AG are growing −6.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does VAT Group AG (VACN) carry?
The net debt of VAT Group AG is CHF 107M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 3, 2026