Whitbread PLC (WTB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Whitbread PLC stock £21.78, price £28.27, that is 23.0% below the price, quality 53 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £20.14 – £33.56 · fair‑value band £13.26 – £30.66 · the £28.27 price screens above the £21.78 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Whitbread plc operates hotels and restaurants in the United Kingdom, Germany, Ireland, and internationally. The company operates hotels under the Premier Inn, ZIP by Premier Inn, and hub by Premier Inn brands.
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It also operates restaurants under the Brewers Fayre, Beefeater, Cookhouse and Pub, Bar+Block Steakhouse, Thyme, Whitebread Inns, and Table Table brands. Whitbread plc was founded in 1742 and is headquartered in Dunstable, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Whitbread PLC (WTB) currently trades at £28.27, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £21.78, 23% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of £35.68 per share, and 7 of the 24 models we run sit above the £28.27 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at £11.90, and 17 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: £13.26 (bear) to £30.66 (bull), the price of £28.27 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Whitbread PLC reported revenue of £2.9B in FY2026 versus £1.7B in FY2022, a compound +14.4%/yr. Reported net income was £213M in FY2026, compounding +49.6%/yr from FY2022. FY2022 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap £4.9B Mid · P/E ratio 78.5 · P/S ratio 1.67 · EPS (TTM) £0.3600 · Dividend yield 3.4% · Net margin 2.0% · Return on equity 1.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.7% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades at its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at −23%, WTB screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear£13.26Fair Value £21.78Bull£30.66
Price £28.27 · Downside -23.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.31/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
≈ +14.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year≈ +11.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 11.0% / −5.4%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−106% → 21%
⚠ Base effect: the rate starts in the earnings trough around 2021 (starting value 0.73 per share, median 2.01 in 2016 to 2019). It measures the recovery from the trough, not lasting growth.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+28.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +25.7% a year for the price and −0.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Premier Inn's targeted acquisitions of ready-built hotels support faster room growth in key cities, yet thin evidence confirms any durable efficiency edge or unique capabilities in lodging.
Main risk: Shift toward conversion hotels risks that any premiums paid fail to be offset by returns, directly pressuring profitability of the core lodging operations.
Whitbread is acquiring ready-built hotels in key cities to add rooms faster amid high development costs and supply constraints. This supports its five-year plan to focus on Premier Inn but shifts the mix toward conversions whose returns must offset any premium paid. Will these deals strengthen the core lodging business more than they complicate the move to a leaner, lease-heavy model?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Lodging · 159 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Above median
Fair Value upside−23.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)1.8% · Below median
Return on assets2.2% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)2.0% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)24.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)2.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.30× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Lodging median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Whitbread PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/WTB
Frequently asked questions
Is Whitbread PLC (WTB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £21.78 versus a price of £28.27, about 23% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of WTB?
Our model-based fair value for Whitbread PLC is £21.78 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £28.27.
What is the quality score of WTB?
Whitbread PLC has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Whitbread PLC (WTB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £21.78 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario £13.26, optimistic scenario £30.66. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Whitbread PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £21.78, about 23% lower versus a price of £28.27 (overvalued). Cautious scenario £13.26, optimistic scenario £30.66. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Whitbread PLC (WTB)?
Whitbread PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £3.0B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Whitbread PLC pay a dividend?
Whitbread PLC currently shows a dividend yield of 3.43% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Whitbread PLC (WTB) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Whitbread PLC pays a dividend of £0.97 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.4%. The last ex-dividend date was Oct 29, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2022. The payout ratio is 164% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 269%). Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.61 times. Our assessment: Pays more than it earns. The company pays out more in dividends than it earns, and free cash flow clearly does not cover the dividend either. It may need to be cut unless profits recover.
What growth is priced into Whitbread PLC (WTB)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Whitbread PLC would have to grow free cash flow by +28.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +37.7 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of WTB use?
Our models discount Whitbread PLC at 9.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.67, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Whitbread PLC that is +28.7 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Whitbread PLC (WTB) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Whitbread PLC grew +37.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +28.7 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Whitbread PLC (WTB) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Whitbread PLC (+28.7 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Whitbread PLC (WTB)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.00 %: that much free cash flow Whitbread PLC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Whitbread PLC (WTB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Whitbread PLC it is £21.78 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of £28.27. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Whitbread PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, WTB trades above its calculated fair value: price £28.27, fair value £21.78, a gap of about −23% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of WTB?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£28.27); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£21.78). For Whitbread PLC the two are £6.49 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Whitbread PLC worth?
The market values Whitbread PLC at about £4.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is £28.27; our models calculate a fair value of £21.78 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about WTB?
Our models span a range for Whitbread PLC: cautious scenario £13.26, base £21.78, optimistic £30.66 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price £28.27). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of WTB?
Whitbread PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 78.5 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £21.78 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2026 it is 13.7 (reported for FY2026: 22.4). Other multiples: PEG 2.3, P/B 1.6, P/S 1.7, EV/EBITDA 7.0.
What is the PEG ratio of WTB?
The PEG ratio of Whitbread PLC is 2.27 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Whitbread PLC (WTB)?
Balance-sheet figures for Whitbread PLC (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 1.8%, debt of 0.30 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is WTB from its 52-week high?
Whitbread PLC trades at £28.27, at its 52-week high of £28.35 and 30% above the low of £21.78 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £21.78 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Whitbread PLC?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Marriott International, Inc, Hilton Worldwide Holdings, Hyatt Hotels Corporation, H World Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Whitbread PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price £28.27, calculated fair value £21.78 (−23%), Quality Score 53/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of WTB calculated?
We run Whitbread PLC through 24 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of £21.78 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Whitbread PLC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Whitbread PLC (WTB)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was £28.27. Our model-based fair value is £21.78, about 23% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Whitbread PLC right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (£13.26 to £30.66) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Whitbread PLC (WTB) come from?
Earnings per share at Whitbread PLC grew −4.6 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.2 %, EBIT margin +0.5 %, tax rate −1.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Whitbread PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of Whitbread PLC (WTB)?
The market capitalisation of Whitbread PLC is £4.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Whitbread PLC (WTB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Whitbread PLC is 1.67 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Whitbread PLC (WTB)?
Earnings per share at Whitbread PLC are £0.3600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 78.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Whitbread PLC (WTB)?
The dividend yield of Whitbread PLC is 3.4% (payout 164%, on adjusted earnings, reported 269%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Whitbread PLC (WTB)?
The net margin of Whitbread PLC is 2.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Whitbread PLC (WTB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Whitbread PLC is 1.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Whitbread PLC (WTB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Whitbread PLC is 4.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Whitbread PLC (WTB)?
The operating margin of Whitbread PLC is 24.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Whitbread PLC (WTB)?
Revenue at Whitbread PLC is growing +2.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Whitbread PLC (WTB)?
Earnings per share at Whitbread PLC are growing −70.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Whitbread PLC (WTB) carry?
The net debt of Whitbread PLC is £5.2B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 53.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026