China High-Speed Railway Technology Co (000008) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 7.0B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 21, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 21, 2026, revised from ¥1.50 to ¥1.05 (−30.0%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +2.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 57% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥1.05). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide (¥0.3300 to ¥1.05). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥1.81 – ¥3.74 · fair‑value band ¥0.3300 – ¥1.05 · the ¥2.42 price screens above the ¥1.05 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
Analysis
China High-Speed Railway Technology Co (000008) currently trades at ¥2.42, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1.05, implying the stock looks roughly 56.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, China High-Speed Railway Technology Co generated revenue of 2.1B CNY at a net margin of -38.5%. Revenue grew 8.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -31.0%. Net debt stands at 2.2B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 21, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥0.3300 (bear case) to ¥1.05 (bull case); at ¥2.42, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -28% fair-value upside, at -57%, 000008 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥0.8800) versus Multiples (¥0.2300). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
China High-Speed Railway Technology Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the railway business in China and internationally.
Full company description
China High-Speed Railway Technology Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the railway business in China and internationally. The company offers rail transit operation and maintenance equipment and services for high-speed train maintenance bases and depots, locomotive and rolling stock maintenance bases and depots, high-speed rail welding bases, urban rail transit lines, freight stations and railways, and high-speed rail and subway stations. It also provides signal control systems for high-speed rail and subway stations and freight railway stations; various onboard core equipment for high-speed rail and subway vehicles. The company was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
China High-Speed Railway Technology Co reported revenue of ¥2.1B in FY2025 versus ¥2.2B in FY2021, a compound −1.1%/yr. Reported net income was −¥835M in FY2025.
000008 screens 57% overvalued. Compare with Union Pacific Corporation →
Peer Group
Railroads · 111 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 21, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Pacific Corporation UNP | $301.75 | $144.60 | -52% |
| CSX Corporation CSX | $49.41 | $12.85 | -74% |
| Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP | $92.91 | $35.00 | -62% |
| Canadian National Railway Company CNI | $128.22 | $92.63 | -28% |
| Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC | $327.47 | $117.90 | -64% |
| Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB | $259.71 | $144.80 | -44% |
| Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 | ¥4.82 | ¥5.65 | +17% |
| CRRC Corporation 601766 | ¥5.65 | ¥9.53 | +69% |
| Daqin Railway Co 601006 | ¥4.85 | ¥6.24 | +29% |
| Hyundai Rotem Company 064350 | 167,700 KRW | 125,182 KRW | -25% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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