China High-Speed Railway Technology (000008) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of China High-Speed Railway Technology stock ¥0.64, price ¥2.29, that is 72.1% below the price, quality 45 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 9 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥1.81 – ¥3.74 · fair‑value band ¥0.3500 – ¥1.04 · the ¥2.29 price screens above the ¥0.6400 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 7, 2026.
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China High-Speed Railway Technology Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the railway business in China and internationally.
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The company offers rail transit operation and maintenance equipment and services for high-speed train maintenance bases and depots, locomotive and rolling stock maintenance bases and depots, high-speed rail welding bases, urban rail transit lines, freight stations and railways, and high-speed rail and subway stations.
It also provides signal control systems for high-speed rail and subway stations and freight railway stations; various onboard core equipment for high-speed rail and subway vehicles. The company was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.
Stock analysis
China High-Speed Railway Technology (000008) currently trades at ¥2.29, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥0.6400, 72% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of ¥0.8300 per share, and 0 of the 8 models we run sit above the ¥2.29 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥0.0900, and 8 of the 8 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥0.3500 (bear) to ¥1.04 (bull), the price of ¥2.29 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
China High-Speed Railway Technology reported revenue of 2.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 2.2B CNY in FY2021, a compound −1.1%/yr. Reported net income was −835M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 6.2B CNY (≈ $932M) Small · P/S ratio 2.93 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.2900 · Dividend yield 1.8% · Net margin −37.1% · Return on equity −30.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −6.7% (5-year average) · Operating margin −14.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 12 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −72%, 000008 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥0.3500Fair Value ¥0.6400Bull¥1.04
Price ¥2.29 · Downside -72.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.26/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.1% a year
Revenue growth 34 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−44.7% (2020) → −0.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+32.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +30.6% a year for the price.
Compare China High-Speed Railway Technology with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Railroads · 108 stocks
Beats the industry median on 0/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−72.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−9.6% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−37.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−14.7% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)0.3% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.80× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
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Is China High-Speed Railway Technology (000008) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥0.6400 versus a price of ¥2.29, about 72% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 000008?
Our model-based fair value for China High-Speed Railway Technology is ¥0.6400 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥2.29.
What is the quality score of 000008?
China High-Speed Railway Technology has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China High-Speed Railway Technology (000008)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥0.6400 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥0.3500, optimistic scenario ¥1.04. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China High-Speed Railway Technology stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥0.6400, about 72% lower versus a price of ¥2.29 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥0.3500, optimistic scenario ¥1.04. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China High-Speed Railway Technology (000008)?
China High-Speed Railway Technology reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.1B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does China High-Speed Railway Technology pay a dividend?
China High-Speed Railway Technology currently shows a dividend yield of 1.80% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of China High-Speed Railway Technology (000008)?
China High-Speed Railway Technology has a dividend yield of 1.8%.
What growth is priced into China High-Speed Railway Technology (000008)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China High-Speed Railway Technology would have to grow free cash flow by +32.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.0 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 000008 use?
Our models discount China High-Speed Railway Technology at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.16, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China High-Speed Railway Technology that is +32.8 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has China High-Speed Railway Technology (000008) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at China High-Speed Railway Technology grew +2.0 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +32.8 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of China High-Speed Railway Technology (000008) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China High-Speed Railway Technology (+32.8 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of China High-Speed Railway Technology (000008)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.23 %: that much free cash flow China High-Speed Railway Technology produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of China High-Speed Railway Technology (000008)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China High-Speed Railway Technology it is ¥0.6400 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of ¥2.29. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models in 4 families (DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF).
Is China High-Speed Railway Technology stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, 000008 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥2.29, fair value ¥0.6400, a gap of about −72% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 000008?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥2.29); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥0.6400). For China High-Speed Railway Technology the two are ¥1.65 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China High-Speed Railway Technology worth?
The market values China High-Speed Railway Technology at about 6.2B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is ¥2.29; our models calculate a fair value of ¥0.6400 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 000008?
Our models span a range for China High-Speed Railway Technology: cautious scenario ¥0.3500, base ¥0.6400, optimistic ¥1.04 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price ¥2.29). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of 000008?
The PEG ratio of China High-Speed Railway Technology is 6.32 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 7, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of China High-Speed Railway Technology (000008)?
Balance-sheet figures for China High-Speed Railway Technology (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity −30.5%, debt of 0.80 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 000008 from its 52-week high?
China High-Speed Railway Technology trades at ¥2.29, about 32% below its 52-week high of ¥3.39 and 3% above the low of ¥2.22 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥0.6400 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China High-Speed Railway Technology?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Norfolk Southern Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China High-Speed Railway Technology stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price ¥2.29, calculated fair value ¥0.6400 (−72%), Quality Score 45/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 000008 calculated?
We run China High-Speed Railway Technology through 9 models from 4 families: DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥0.6400 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. China High-Speed Railway Technology itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China High-Speed Railway Technology (000008)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was ¥2.29. Our model-based fair value is ¥0.6400, about 72% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China High-Speed Railway Technology right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥1.04). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (45/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (¥0.3500 to ¥1.04). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of China High-Speed Railway Technology
How large is the market capitalisation of China High-Speed Railway Technology (000008)?
The market capitalisation of China High-Speed Railway Technology is 6.2B CNY (≈ $932M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China High-Speed Railway Technology (000008)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China High-Speed Railway Technology is 2.93 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China High-Speed Railway Technology (000008)?
Earnings per share at China High-Speed Railway Technology are ¥−0.2900. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of China High-Speed Railway Technology (000008)?
The dividend yield of China High-Speed Railway Technology is 1.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China High-Speed Railway Technology (000008)?
The net margin of China High-Speed Railway Technology is −37.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China High-Speed Railway Technology (000008)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China High-Speed Railway Technology is −30.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China High-Speed Railway Technology (000008)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China High-Speed Railway Technology is −6.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China High-Speed Railway Technology (000008)?
The operating margin of China High-Speed Railway Technology is −14.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China High-Speed Railway Technology (000008)?
Revenue at China High-Speed Railway Technology is growing +0.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China High-Speed Railway Technology (000008)?
Earnings per share at China High-Speed Railway Technology are growing +9.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does China High-Speed Railway Technology (000008) carry?
The net debt of China High-Speed Railway Technology is 2.2B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 15.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 7, 2026