Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou (000523) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou ¥0.91, price ¥3.49, upside -73.9%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥2.39 – ¥4.62 · fair‑value band ¥0.7500 – ¥1.13 · the ¥3.49 price screens above the ¥0.9100 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Hongmian Zhihui Science and Technology Innovation Co.,Ltd.Guangzhou engages in the production and sale of edible sugar, beverages, and other food products in China and internationally.
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Hongmian Zhihui Science and Technology Innovation Co.,Ltd.Guangzhou engages in the production and sale of edible sugar, beverages, and other food products in China and internationally. It offers various refined sugars, such as brown and white sugars under the Hongmian brand; soda, pineapple beer beverages, craft beer, wine series, liquor, and Double Happiness craft beer. The company also provides hand sanitizers, bleaching liquids, chlorine bleach, toilet cleaners, fruit and vegetable tableware cleaners, and clothing disinfectants; and laundry serum, beads, and detergents. In addition, it is involved in site leasing, property management, as well as management and supporting activities; and development and operations of industrial parks. It also operates under the Guangshi, Shuangxi, and Wuyang brands. The company was formerly known as Lonkey Industrial Co.,Ltd.Guangzhou and changed its name to Hongmian Zhihui Science and Technology Innovation Co.,Ltd.Guangzhou in December 2023. Hongmian Zhihui Science and Technology Innovation Co.,Ltd.Guangzhou was founded in 1959 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, China.
Stock analysis
Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou (000523) currently trades at ¥3.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥0.9100, implying the stock looks roughly 283.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥2.53 per share, and 2 of the 24 models we run sit above the ¥3.49 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥0.2900, and 22 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥0.7500 (bear) to ¥1.13 (bull), the price of ¥3.49 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou reported revenue of 2.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 2.6B CNY in FY2021, a compound −4.9%/yr. Reported net income was 79.4M CNY in FY2025, compounding −51.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 6.4B CNY (≈ $956M) · P/E ratio 58.2 · P/S ratio 2.18 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.0600 · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin 3.7% · Return on equity 6.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at −74%, 000523 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥0.7500Fair Value ¥0.9100Bull ¥1.13
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.0439 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.64/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−38.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−38.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−39% vs −4%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−127% → 5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 19.6%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +3.3% a year for the price.
Compare Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Household & Personal Products · 250 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Below median
Fair Value upside−74% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Household & Personal Products median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)58.2× · Priciest 25%
P/B3.34× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)3.03× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF2.5× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA46.6× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.47× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 33
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 9
PAST (return on equity)27· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)4· sector 55
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/000523
Frequently asked questions
Is Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou (000523) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥0.9100 versus a price of ¥3.49, about −74% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 000523?
Our model-based fair value for Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou is ¥0.9100 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥3.49.
What is the quality score of 000523?
Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou (000523)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥0.9100 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥0.7500, optimistic scenario ¥1.13. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥0.9100, about −74% upside versus a price of ¥3.49 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥0.7500, optimistic scenario ¥1.13. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou (000523)?
Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.1B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou pay a dividend?
Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.19% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou (000523)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou would have to grow free cash flow by +5.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -8.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 000523 use?
Our models discount Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.51, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou that is +5.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou (000523) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou grew -8.6 % a year. The price currently implies +5.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou (000523) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou (+5.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou (000523)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.92 %: that much free cash flow Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou (000523)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou it is ¥0.9100 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥3.49. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 000523 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥3.49, fair value ¥0.9100, a gap of about −74% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 000523?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥3.49); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥0.9100). For Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou the two are ¥2.58 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou worth?
The market values Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou at about 6.4B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥3.49; our models calculate a fair value of ¥0.9100 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 000523?
Our models span a range for Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou: cautious scenario ¥0.7500, base ¥0.9100, optimistic ¥1.13 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥3.49). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 000523?
Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 58.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥0.9100 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.5, P/B 3.3, P/S 3.0, EV/EBITDA 46.6.
What is the PEG ratio of 000523?
The PEG ratio of Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou is 0.47 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou (000523)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 6.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 000523 from its 52-week high?
Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou trades at ¥3.49, about 22% below its 52-week high of ¥4.46 and 36% above the low of ¥2.57 (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥0.9100 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value The Procter & Gamble Company, Colgate-Palmolive Company, Hindustan Unilever Limited, Kenvue Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥3.49, calculated fair value ¥0.9100 (−74%), Quality Score 51/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 000523 calculated?
We run Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥0.9100, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou (000523)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was ¥3.49. Our model-based fair value is ¥0.9100, about −74% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥1.13). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou
How large is the market capitalisation of Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou (000523)?
The market capitalisation of Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou is 6.4B CNY (≈ $956M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou (000523)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou is 2.18 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou (000523)?
Earnings per share at Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou are ¥0.0600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 58.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou (000523)?
The dividend yield of Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou is 0.2% (payout 11.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou (000523)?
The net margin of Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou is 3.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou (000523)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou is 6.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou (000523)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou is 17.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou (000523)?
The operating margin of Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou is 3.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou (000523)?
Revenue at Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou is growing −1.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou (000523)?
Earnings per share at Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou are growing +299% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou (000523) hold?
Lonkey Industrial Co Ltd Guangzhou holds more cash than debt, 383M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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