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Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd (000557) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd ¥3.23, price ¥3.68, upside -12.2%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · CN · ISIN CNE000000FQ1

NW Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd

000557 · SHE

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value ¥3.23 · Overvalued (−12%)
!Quality 55/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue YoY −1.2 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 20.4% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
·0.54% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (7/13)
!Narrow moat 40/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on valuation: 17 out of 100
!Weak on past: 18 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

¥6.79 ¥3.28 Fair Value ¥3.23 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥3.28 – ¥6.79 · fair‑value band ¥3.15 – ¥4.00 · the ¥3.68 price screens above the ¥3.23 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co.,Ltd. engages in the railway transportation business in China. It operates through Railway Transportation and Services, Wine and Hotel Services, and Supply Chain Trading Services segments.

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Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co.,Ltd. engages in the railway transportation business in China. It operates through Railway Transportation and Services, Wine and Hotel Services, and Supply Chain Trading Services segments. The company engages in the railway transportation of coal, iron ore, and coal chemical products; railway logistics; road-rail combined transportation, container multimodal transportation, and railway logistics park operations; hotel services; and supply chain trade services, which include procurement, transportation, warehousing, sales, information, and other services. It is also involved in wine processing and sale; accommodation and catering; grape planting; and supply chain management activities. Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co.,Ltd. was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Yinchuan, China.

Stock analysis

Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd (000557) currently trades at ¥3.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥3.23, implying the stock looks roughly 13.9% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥9.18 per share, and 6 of the 14 models we run sit above the ¥3.68 price.

Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at ¥1.70, and 8 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: ¥3.15 (bear) to ¥4.00 (bull), the price of ¥3.68 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.

Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd reported revenue of 1.3B CNY in FY2025 versus 1.2B CNY in FY2021, a compound +1.8%/yr. Reported net income was 293M CNY in FY2025, compounding +6.7%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 5.4B CNY (≈ $801M) · P/E ratio 19.4 · P/S ratio 4.26 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.1900 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 22.0% · Return on equity 4.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.6%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at −12%, 000557 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ¥3.15 Fair Value ¥3.23 Bull ¥4.00
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.1244 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV ¥1.64 ¥1.70 ¥1.75 74
Residual Income ¥3.10 ¥3.03 ¥2.62 72
ROIC Compounder ¥1.64 ¥1.70 ¥1.75 68
All 14 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥1.36 ¥9.51 ¥13.35 59
Lynch FV ¥4.91 ¥7.02 ¥9.13 57
PEG = 1.0 ¥4.91 ¥7.02 ¥9.13 54
EPV ¥1.64 ¥1.70 ¥1.75 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥3.16 ¥4.21 ¥5.27 63
P/S Multiple ¥1.09 ¥1.46 ¥1.82 58
P/B Multiple ¥2.56 ¥3.41 ¥4.26 55
EV/EBIT ¥2.48 ¥2.90 ¥3.33 66
EV/EBITDA ¥3.50 ¥4.27 ¥5.04 67
EV/Revenue ¥2.11 ¥2.50 ¥2.89 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥2.17 ¥2.91 ¥4.34 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥3.10 ¥3.03 ¥2.62 72
ROIC Compounder ¥1.64 ¥1.70 ¥1.75 68
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥6.43 ¥9.18 ¥11.94 64

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 55/100

Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39

Profitability 33
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 34
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 38
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 97
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 52
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 91
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 23
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 6
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 55/100
Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+11.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+11.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.11% vs 35%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.25% → 11%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

000557 screens 14% overvalued. Compare with Union Pacific Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Railroads · 114 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 55 · Above median
Fair Value upside −12% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 4% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 20% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 14% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 12% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.02× · Lowest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Railroads median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 19.4× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.85× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 3.93× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 11.1× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)17 · sector 21
FUTURE (revenue growth)58 · sector 20
PAST (return on equity)18 · sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)99 · sector 88
DIVIDEND (yield)11 · sector 43

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
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CSX Corporation CSX $46.59 $12.85 −72%
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP $87.99 $37.86 −57%
Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC $314.00 $133.01 −58%
Canadian National Railway Company CNI $119.52 $98.68 −17%
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB $289.71 $289.60 +0%
Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 ¥4.71 ¥5.65 +20%
CRRC Corporation 601766 ¥5.98 ¥9.53 +59%
Daqin Railway Co 601006 ¥4.71 ¥5.48 +16%
Hyundai Rotem Company 064350 115,900 KRW 127,490 KRW +10%

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Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd · Fair Value
¥3.23 −14%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/000557

Frequently asked questions

Is Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd (000557) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥3.23 versus a price of ¥3.68, about −12% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 000557?
Our model-based fair value for Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd is ¥3.23 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥3.68.
What is the quality score of 000557?
Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd (000557)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥3.23 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥3.15, optimistic scenario ¥4.00. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥3.23, about −12% upside versus a price of ¥3.68 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥3.15, optimistic scenario ¥4.00. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd (000557)?
Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.4B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.54% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd (000557)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd it is ¥3.23 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥3.68. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 000557 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥3.68, fair value ¥3.23, a gap of about −12% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 000557?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥3.68); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥3.23). For Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd the two are ¥0.4500 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd worth?
The market values Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd at about 5.4B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥3.68; our models calculate a fair value of ¥3.23 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 000557?
Our models span a range for Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥3.15, base ¥3.23, optimistic ¥4.00 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥3.68). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 000557?
Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥3.23 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 3.9, EV/EBITDA 11.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd (000557)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 4.4%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 000557 from its 52-week high?
Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd trades at ¥3.68, about 31% below its 52-week high of ¥5.36 and 7% above the low of ¥3.44 (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥3.23 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Norfolk Southern Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥3.68, calculated fair value ¥3.23 (−12%), Quality Score 55/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 000557 calculated?
We run Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥3.23, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd (000557)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was ¥3.68. Our model-based fair value is ¥3.23, about −12% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd (000557) come from?
Earnings per share at Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd grew +21.5 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +16.1 %, EBIT margin +5.5 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd (000557)?
The market capitalisation of Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd is 5.4B CNY (≈ $801M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd (000557)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd is 4.26 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd (000557)?
Earnings per share at Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd are ¥0.1900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd (000557)?
The dividend yield of Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd is 0.5% (payout 10.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd (000557)?
The net margin of Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd is 22.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd (000557)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd is 4.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd (000557)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd is 4.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd (000557)?
The operating margin of Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd is 14.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd (000557)?
Revenue at Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd is growing +11.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −9.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd (000557)?
Earnings per share at Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd are growing −20.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd (000557) generate?
The free cash flow of Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd is −265M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd (000557) hold?
Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 2.2B CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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