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Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co (000557) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · CN · Market cap 5.7B CNY

NW Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co 000557 · SHE
Price¥3.66
Fair Value¥3.41
Upside-6.8%
Quality55/100
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Mixed Growth
Highly profitable · 20.4% net margin
Low debt · negative free cash flow
0.51% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (6/13)
Narrow moat 40/100
Evidence: Medium Range ¥3.37 – ¥4.26 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 21, 2026

From 14 valuation models · updated 20 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 21, 2026, revised from ¥4.21 to ¥3.41 (−19.0%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +4.0% over the past month.

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • Our model range runs from ¥3.37 (bear) to ¥4.26 (bull), base ¥3.41. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 55/100 (solid quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥6.83 ¥3.30 Fair Value ¥3.41 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥3.30 – ¥6.83 · fair‑value band ¥3.37 – ¥4.26 · the ¥3.66 price screens above the ¥3.41 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.

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Analysis

Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co (000557) currently trades at ¥3.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥3.41, implying the stock looks roughly 6.8% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co generated revenue of 1.4B CNY at a net margin of 20.4%. Revenue grew 11.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 2.2B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 21, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥3.37 (bear case) to ¥4.26 (bull case); at ¥3.66, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -28% fair-value upside, at -7%, 000557 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income ¥3.24 ¥3.23 ¥2.96 76
ROIC Compounder ¥1.70 ¥1.78 ¥1.85 72
Growth-Adj P/E ¥6.43 ¥9.18 ¥11.94 68
All 14 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥1.36 ¥9.51 ¥13.35 54
Lynch FV ¥4.91 ¥7.02 ¥9.13 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥4.91 ¥7.02 ¥9.13 46
EPV ¥1.70 ¥1.78 ¥1.85 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥3.16 ¥4.21 ¥5.27 63
P/S Multiple ¥1.09 ¥1.46 ¥1.82 58
P/B Multiple ¥2.56 ¥3.41 ¥4.26 55
EV/EBIT ¥2.48 ¥2.90 ¥3.33 53
EV/EBITDA ¥3.50 ¥4.27 ¥5.04 54
EV/Revenue ¥2.11 ¥2.50 ¥2.89 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥2.17 ¥2.91 ¥4.34 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥3.24 ¥3.23 ¥2.96 76
ROIC Compounder ¥1.70 ¥1.78 ¥1.85 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥6.43 ¥9.18 ¥11.94 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥9.18) versus Economic Profit (¥1.78). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 1.4B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +11.5%
Net margin 20.4%
Return on equity 4.4%
Free cash flow −265M CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 20.6
More key figures
Operating margin 14.0%
EPS (TTM) ¥0.1900
Dividend yield 0.5%
EPS growth (YoY) -20.8%
Net cash 2.2B CNY FY2024

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 55/100

Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 31

Profitability 33
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 34
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 38
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 97
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 52
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 90
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 10
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 1
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co.,Ltd. engages in the railway transportation business in China. It operates through Railway Transportation and Services, Wine and Hotel Services, and Supply Chain Trading Services segments.

Full company description

Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co.,Ltd. engages in the railway transportation business in China. It operates through Railway Transportation and Services, Wine and Hotel Services, and Supply Chain Trading Services segments. The company engages in the railway transportation of coal, iron ore, and coal chemical products; railway logistics; road-rail combined transportation, container multimodal transportation, and railway logistics park operations; hotel services; and supply chain trade services, which include procurement, transportation, warehousing, sales, information, and other services. It is also involved in wine processing and sale; accommodation and catering; grape planting; and supply chain management activities. Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co.,Ltd. was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Yinchuan, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co reported revenue of ¥1.3B in FY2025 versus ¥1.2B in FY2021, a compound +1.8%/yr. Reported net income was ¥293M in FY2025, compounding +6.7%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 55/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
1.3B CNY
Latest YoY
−1.2%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−9.4%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+8.2%
Avg. growth/yr (33Y)
+9.8%
Revenue +1.8%/yr
FY21 ¥1.2B
FY22 ¥1.8B
FY23 ¥1.7B
FY24 ¥1.3B
FY25 ¥1.3B
Net income +6.7%/yr
FY21 ¥226M
FY22 ¥238M
FY23 ¥242M
FY24 ¥263M
FY25 ¥293M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/000557

Peer Group

Railroads · 111 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 55 · Above median
Fair Value upside −7% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 4% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 20% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 14% · Above median
Revenue growth 12% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.5% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.02× · Lower than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Railroads median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 20.6× · Pricier than median
P/B 0.90× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 4.18× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 12.2× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 24 · sector 28
FUTURE 58 · sector 20
PAST 18 · sector 31
HEALTH 99 · sector 88
DIVIDEND 10 · sector 41

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 21, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Union Pacific Corporation UNP $301.75 $144.60 -52%
CSX Corporation CSX $49.41 $12.85 -74%
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP $92.91 $35.00 -62%
Canadian National Railway Company CNI $128.22 $92.63 -28%
Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC $327.47 $117.90 -64%
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB $259.71 $144.80 -44%
Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 ¥4.82 ¥5.65 +17%
CRRC Corporation 601766 ¥5.65 ¥9.53 +69%
Daqin Railway Co 601006 ¥4.85 ¥6.24 +29%
Hyundai Rotem Company 064350 167,700 KRW 125,182 KRW -25%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co (000557) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 21, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥3.41 versus a price of ¥3.66, about −7% (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 000557?
Our model-based fair value for Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co is ¥3.41 (as of Jul 21, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥3.66.
What is the quality score of 000557?
Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co (000557)?
Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.4B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 21, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 000557?
The net profit margin of Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co is about 20.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 20.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co pay a dividend?
Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.51% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 21, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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